TY - JOUR A1 - Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie A1 - Mudelsee, Manfred T1 - The multifaceted history of the Walker Circulation during the Plio-Pleistocene JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - The Walker Circulation (WC) is an east-west trending band of atmospheric circulation cells along the equator and the predominant controller of heat and moisture transport in the tropics. Its variability is closely linked to the sea-surface temperature (SST) changes across the Pacific, the Indian and the Atlantic Oceans and can have pronounced effects on the humidity regimes of the adjacent continents. In recent years, the evolution of the WC during the Plioand Pleistocene epochs has been intensely studied in the context of the effectiveness of the tropics in modulating global climate change (e.g., the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation). However, the onset of the modern WC pattern as well as its global impact during the Plioand Pleistocene is controversially assessed in the literature. For its onset, previous studies have suggested dates ranging between 2.4 and 0.8 million years ago (Myr), while its argued impact ranges from crucially influencing the increase of Northern Hemisphere ice sheet growth by channelling heat and moisture from the tropics into the high latitudes to having no effect on global ice volume changes. In order to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of the WC during this time frame, we statistically analysed 30 globally distributed SST records covering the low and high latitudes between 3.5 and 1.5 Myr, encompassing the Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene. We utilized a statistical change-point regression model to determine significant change points in the SST evolution of the (sub)-tropics and high latitudes that potentially relate to changes in the WC. We find that the WC experienced a multifaceted evolution between the Late Pliocene and the Early Pleistocene with significant transitional steps at-2.7 and-2.1 Ma. Our results suggest after the Late Pliocene, a pre-modern WC set in, which was characterized by a progressively strengthened Pacific Walker Cell alongside a weakened Indian Ocean Walker Cell. This change was potentially triggered by the constriction of the Indonesian seaway, an important transmitter between the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The ensuing mode of the WC intensified until-2.1 Myr, when SST values around the global scale signalled a progressive strengthening of the Indian Walker Cell in phase with the progressive strengthening of the Pacific and Atlantic Cells. Our findings indicate that a shift from a pre-modern to a modern-like WC potentially only occurred during the mid-Pleistocene. KW - Walker circulation KW - Plio-pleistocene transition KW - Early pleistocene; KW - Statistical analysis KW - Change-point regression model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107529 SN - 0277-3791 SN - 1873-457X VL - 286 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lescesen, Igor A1 - Sraj, Mojca A1 - Basarin, Biljana A1 - Pavic, Dragoslav A1 - Mesaros, Minucer A1 - Mudelsee, Manfred T1 - Regional flood frequency analysis of the sava river in south-eastern Europe JF - Sustainability N2 - Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is a powerful method for interrogating hydrological series since it combines observational time series from several sites within a region to estimate risk-relevant statistical parameters with higher accuracy than from single-site series. Since RFFA extreme value estimates depend on the shape of the selected distribution of the data-generating stochastic process, there is need for a suitable goodness-of-distributional-fit measure in order to optimally utilize given data. Here we present a novel, least-squares-based measure to select the optimal fit from a set of five distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Gumbel, Log-Normal Type III and Log-Pearson Type III. The fit metric is applied to annual maximum discharge series from six hydrological stations along the Sava River in South-eastern Europe, spanning the years 1961 to 2020. Results reveal that (1) the Sava River basin can be assessed as hydrologically homogeneous and (2) the GEV distribution provides typically the best fit. We offer hydrological-meteorological insights into the differences among the six stations. For the period studied, almost all stations exhibit statistically insignificant trends, which renders the conclusions about flood risk as relevant for hydrological sciences and the design of regional flood protection infrastructure. KW - discharge time series KW - flood risk analysis KW - Generalized Extreme Value distribution KW - L-moments estimation KW - regional flood frequency analysis KW - Sava River Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159282 SN - 2071-1050 VL - 14 IS - 15 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Trauth, Martin H. A1 - Larrasoaña, Juan C. A1 - Mudelsee, Manfred T1 - Trends, rhythms and events in plio-pleistocene African climate N2 - We analyzed published records of terrigenous dust flux from marine sediments off subtropical West Africa, the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and the Arabian Sea, and lake records from East Africa using statistical methods to detect trends, rhythms and events in Plio-Pleistocene African climate. The critical reassessment of the environmental significance of dust flux and lake records removes the apparent inconsistencies between marine vs. terrestrial records of African climate variability. Based on these results, major steps in mammalian and hominin evolution occurred during episodes of a wetter, but highly variable climate largely controlled by orbitally induced insolation changes in the low latitudes. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02773791 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.11.003 SN - 0277-3791 ER -