TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bormann, Helge
A1  - de Brito, Mariana Madruga
A1  - Charchousi, Despoina
A1  - Chatzistratis, Dimitris
A1  - David, Amrei
A1  - Grosser, Paula Farina
A1  - Kebschull, Jenny
A1  - Konis, Alexandros
A1  - Koutalakis, Paschalis
A1  - Korali, Alkistis
A1  - Krauzig, Naomi
A1  - Meier, Jessica
A1  - Meliadou, Varvara
A1  - Meinhardt, Markus
A1  - Munnelly, Kieran
A1  - Stephan, Christiane
A1  - de Vos, Leon Frederik
A1  - Dietrich, Jörg
A1  - Tzoraki, Ourania
T1  - Impact of Hydrological Modellers’ Decisions and Attitude on the Performance of a Calibrated Conceptual Catchment Model
BT  - Results from a ‘Modelling Contest’
JF  - Hydrology
N2  - In this study, 17 hydrologists with different experience in hydrological modelling applied the same conceptual catchment model (HBV) to a Greek catchment, using identical data and model code. Calibration was performed manually. Subsequently, the modellers were asked for their experience, their calibration strategy, and whether they enjoyed the exercise. The exercise revealed that there is considerable modellers’ uncertainty even among the experienced modellers. It seemed to be equally important whether the modellers followed a good calibration strategy, and whether they enjoyed modelling. The exercise confirmed previous studies about the benefit of model ensembles: Different combinations of the simulation results (median, mean) outperformed the individual model simulations, while filtering the simulations even improved the quality of the model ensembles. Modellers’ experience, decisions, and attitude, therefore, have an impact on the hydrological model application and should be considered as part of hydrological modelling uncertainty.
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology5040064
SN  - 2306-5338
VL  - 5
IS  - 4
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Breuer, Lutz
A1  - Bormann, Helge
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
A1  - Croke, Barry F. W.
A1  - Frede, Hans-Georg
A1  - Gräff, Thomas
A1  - Hubrechts, Lode
A1  - Kite, Geoffrey
A1  - Lanini, Jordan
A1  - Leavesley, George
A1  - Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
A1  - Lindstroem, Goeran
A1  - Seibert, Jan
A1  - Sivapalan, Mayuran
A1  - Viney, Neil R.
A1  - Willems, Patrick
T1  - Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III : scenario analysis
N2  - An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions.
Y1  - 2009
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03091708
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.06.009
SN  - 0309-1708
ER  -