TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sharma, Shubham
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Zöller, Gert
T1  - Seismicity parameters dependence on main shock-induced co-seismic stress
JF  - Geophysical journal international
N2  - The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) and the Omori-Utsu (OU) law describe the earthquakes' energy release and temporal clustering and are thus of great importance for seismic hazard assessment. Motivated by experimental results, which indicate stress-dependent parameters, we consider a combined global data set of 127 main shock-aftershock sequences and perform a systematic study of the relationship between main shock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity patterns. For this purpose, we calculate space-dependent Coulomb Stress (& UDelta;CFS) and alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the surrounding of the main shocks. Our results indicate a clear positive correlation between the GR b-value and the induced stress, contrasting expectations from laboratory experiments and suggesting a crucial role of structural heterogeneity and strength variations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the OU parameters c and p systematically decrease for increasing stress changes. Our partly unexpected findings can have an important impact on future estimations of the aftershock hazard.
KW  - Earthquake hazards
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - forecasting
KW  - and prediction
KW  - Statistical seismology
KW  - b-value
Y1  - 2023
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad201
SN  - 0956-540X
SN  - 1365-246X
VL  - 235
IS  - 1
SP  - 509
EP  - 517
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sudibyo, Maria R. P.
A1  - Eibl, Eva P. S.
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Hersir, Gylfi Páll
T1  - Eruption Forecasting of Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, Using Permutation Entropy
JF  - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth
N2  - A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute-long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15 s before the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions.
KW  - permutation entropy
KW  - forecasting
KW  - geyser
KW  - eruption
KW  - hydrothermal system;
KW  - volcano-seismology
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024840
SN  - 2169-9313
SN  - 2169-9356
VL  - 127
IS  - 10
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ayzel, Georgy
A1  - Varentsova, Natalia
A1  - Erina, Oxana
A1  - Sokolov, Dmitriy
A1  - Kurochkina, Liubov
A1  - Moreydo, Vsevolod
T1  - OpenForecast
BT  - The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia
JF  - Water : Molecular Diversity Preservation International
N2  - The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
KW  - OpenForecast
KW  - open
KW  - operational service
KW  - runoff
KW  - forecasting
KW  - Russia
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081546
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 11
IS  - 8
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  -