TY - JOUR A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Mengel, M. A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, sea level would continue to rise for centuries, with the long-term sea-level commitment of a 2 degrees C warmer world significantly exceeding 2 m. In view of the potential implications for coastal populations and ecosystems worldwide, we investigate, from an ice-dynamic perspective, the possibility of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet. We find that due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than would be expected from a pure advection with surface velocities. The delay time depends strongly on the distance from the coastline at which the additional mass is placed and less strongly on the rate of sea-level rise that is mitigated. A millennium-scale storage of at least 80% of the additional ice requires placing it at a distance of at least 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate the potential energy of ocean water to mitigate the currently observed 3 mmyr(-1) will exceed 7% of the current global primary energy supply. At the same time, the approach offers a comprehensive protection for entire coastlines particularly including regions that cannot be protected by dikes. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 7 SP - 203 EP - 210 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Mengel, Matthias A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, sea level would continue to rise for centuries, with the long-term sea-level commitment of a 2 degrees C warmer world significantly exceeding 2 m. In view of the potential implications for coastal populations and ecosystems worldwide, we investigate, from an ice-dynamic perspective, the possibility of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet. We find that due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than would be expected from a pure advection with surface velocities. The delay time depends strongly on the distance from the coastline at which the additional mass is placed and less strongly on the rate of sea-level rise that is mitigated. A millennium-scale storage of at least 80% of the additional ice requires placing it at a distance of at least 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate the potential energy of ocean water to mitigate the currently observed 3 mmyr(-1) will exceed 7% of the current global primary energy supply. At the same time, the approach offers a comprehensive protection for entire coastlines particularly including regions that cannot be protected by dikes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 533 KW - carbon-dioxide emissions KW - ice-sheet KW - climate-change KW - model KW - collapse KW - commitment KW - Greenland KW - discharge KW - project KW - surface Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410234 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 533 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich A1 - Lissner, Tabea Katharina A1 - Fischer, Erich M. A1 - Wohland, Jan A1 - Perrette, Mahé A1 - Golly, Antonius A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Childers, Katelin A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Mengel, Matthias A1 - Hare, William A1 - Schaeffer, Michiel T1 - Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming BT - the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C T2 - Earth System Dynamics N2 - Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 degrees C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 degrees C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 degrees C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. In a 1.5 degrees C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2 degrees C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 426 KW - sea-level rise KW - Greenland ice-sheet KW - coral-reefs KW - precipitation extremes KW - West Antarctica KW - pine Island KW - model KW - projections KW - temperature KW - scenarios Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410258 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich A1 - Lissner, Tabea K. A1 - Fischer, Erich M. A1 - Wohland, Jan A1 - Perrette, Mahe A1 - Golly, Antonius A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Childers, Katelin A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Mengel, Matthias A1 - Hare, William A1 - Schaeffer, Michiel T1 - Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 degrees C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 degrees C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 degrees C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. In a 1.5 degrees C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2 degrees C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 7 SP - 327 EP - 351 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geiger, Tobias A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - High-income does not protect against hurricane losses JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Damage due to tropical cyclones accounts for more than 50% of all meteorologically-induced economic losses worldwide. Their nominal impact is projected to increase substantially as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. So far, historical losses due to tropical cyclones have been found to increase less than linearly with a nation's affected gross domestic product (GDP). Here we show that for the United States this scaling is caused by a sub-linear increase with affected population while relative losses scale super-linearly with per capita income. The finding is robust across a multitude of empirically derived damage models that link the storm's wind speed, exposed population, and per capita GDP to reported losses. The separation of both socio-economic predictors strongly affects the projection of potential future hurricane losses. Separating the effects of growth in population and per-capita income, per hurricane losses with respect to national GDP are projected to triple by the end of the century under unmitigated climate change, while they are estimated to decrease slightly without the separation. KW - climate change KW - tropical cyclones KW - damage KW - meteorological extremes KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Schaeffer, Michiel A1 - Lissner, Tabea A1 - Licker, Rachel A1 - Fischer, Erich M. A1 - Knutti, Reto A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Hare, William T1 - Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal JF - Nature climate change Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3096 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 6 SP - 827 EP - 835 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER -