TY - GEN A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan Frederik A1 - Wiedermann, Marc A1 - Donges, Jonathan Friedemann A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Impact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 497 KW - event coincidence analysis KW - climate-change KW - weather extremes KW - plant phenology KW - interannual variability KW - air-temperature KW - responses KW - drought KW - trends KW - summer Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408352 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 497 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan Frederik A1 - Sanders, Tanja G. M. A1 - Heinrich, Ingo A1 - Maaten, Ernst van der A1 - Simard, Sonia A1 - Helle, Gerhard A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Meteorological drivers of extremes in daily stem radius variations of beech, oak, and pine in Northeastern Germany BT - an event coincidence analysis T2 - Frontiers in plant science N2 - Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem radius variations, offering the possibility to study a tree's response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem radius variations (SRV) of three domestic tree species (beech, oak, and pine) from 2012 to 2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA) to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme SRVs, where extremes are defined with respect to the common values at a given phase of the annual growth period. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we additionally introduce conditional and joint ECA as new multivariate extensions of the original methodology and apply them for testing 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on SRV extremes. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to the extremes of several meteorological variables. Yet, the inter-species differences regarding their response to the meteorological extremes are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only. We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 456 KW - dendrometer measurements KW - event coincidence analysis KW - climate extremes KW - growth response Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407943 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan F. A1 - Wiedermann, Marc A1 - Donges, Jonathan Friedemann A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Impact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species JF - Biogeosciences N2 - Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016 SN - 1726-4170 SN - 1726-4189 VL - 13 SP - 5541 EP - 5555 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan F. A1 - Sanders, Tanja G. M. A1 - Heinrich, Ingo A1 - van der Maaten, Ernst A1 - Simard, Sonia A1 - Helle, Gerhard A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Meteorological Drivers of Extremes in Daily Stem Radius Variations of Beech, Oak, and Pine in Northeastern Germany: An Event Coincidence Analysis JF - Frontiers in plant science N2 - Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem radius variations, offering the possibility to study a tree's response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem radius variations (SRV) of three domestic tree species (beech, oak, and pine) from 2012 to 2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA) to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme SRVs, where extremes are defined with respect to the common values at a given phase of the annual growth period. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we additionally introduce conditional and joint ECA as new multivariate extensions of the original methodology and apply them for testing 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on SRV extremes. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to the extremes of several meteorological variables. Yet, the inter-species differences regarding their response to the meteorological extremes are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only. We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions. KW - dendrometer measurements KW - event coincidence analysis KW - climate extremes KW - growth response Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2016.00733 SN - 1664-462X VL - 7 SP - 4701 EP - 4712 PB - Frontiers Research Foundation CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Donges, Jonathan Friedemann A1 - Schleussner, C. -F. A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan F. A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series JF - European physical journal special topics N2 - Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y SN - 1951-6355 SN - 1951-6401 VL - 225 SP - 471 EP - 487 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER -