TY - JOUR A1 - Guillemoteau, Julien A1 - Simon, Francois-Xavier A1 - Lück, Erika A1 - Tronicke, Jens T1 - 1D sequential inversion of portable multi-configuration electromagnetic induction data JF - Near surface geophysics N2 - We present an algorithm that performs sequentially one-dimensional inversion of subsurface magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity by using multi-configuration electromagnetic induction sensor data. The presented method is based on the conversion of the in-phase and out-of-phase data into effective magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity of the equivalent homogeneous half-space. In the case of small-offset systems, such as portable electromagnetic induction sensors, for which in-phase and out-of-phase data are moderately coupled, the effective half-space magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity can be inverted sequentially within an iterative scheme. We test and evaluate the proposed inversion strategy using synthetic and field examples. First, we apply it to synthetic data for some highly magnetic environments. Then, the method is tested on real field data acquired in a basaltic environment to image a formation of archaeological interest. These examples demonstrate that a joint interpretation of in-phase and out-of-phase data leads to a better characterisation of the subsurface in magnetic environments such as volcanic areas. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3997/1873-0604.2016029 SN - 1569-4445 SN - 1873-0604 VL - 14 SP - 423 EP - 432 PB - Wiley-VCH CY - Houten ER - TY - THES A1 - Lontsi, Agostiny Marrios T1 - 1D shallow sedimentary subsurface imaging using ambient noise and active seismic data T1 - 1D Bildgebung oberflächennaher Sedimente mit Hilfe von Daten der allgemeinen, seismischen Bodenunruhe und Daten der aktiven Seismik N2 - The Earth’s shallow subsurface with sedimentary cover acts as a waveguide to any incoming wavefield. Within the framework of my thesis, I focused on the characterization of this shallow subsurface within tens to few hundreds of meters of sediment cover. I imaged the seismic 1D shear wave velocity (and possibly the 1D compressional wave velocity). This information is not only required for any seismic risk assessment, geotechnical engineering or microzonation activities, but also for exploration and global seismology where site effects are often neglected in seismic waveform modeling. First, the conventional frequency-wavenumber (f - k) technique is used to derive the dispersion characteristic of the propagating surface waves recorded using distinct arrays of seismometers in 1D and 2D configurations. Further, the cross-correlation technique is applied to seismic array data to estimate the Green’s function between receivers pairs combination assuming one is the source and the other the receiver. With the consideration of a 1D media, the estimated cross-correlation Green’s functions are sorted with interstation distance in a virtual 1D active seismic experiment. The f - k technique is then used to estimate the dispersion curves. This integrated analysis is important for the interpretation of a large bandwidth of the phase velocity dispersion curves and therefore improving the resolution of the estimated 1D Vs profile. Second, the new theoretical approach based on the Diffuse Field Assumption (DFA) is used for the interpretation of the observed microtremors H/V spectral ratio. The theory is further extended in this research work to include not only the interpretation of the H/V measured at the surface, but also the H/V measured at depths and in marine environments. A modeling and inversion of synthetic H/V spectral ratio curves on simple predefined geological structures shows an almost perfect recovery of the model parameters (mainly Vs and to a lesser extent Vp). These results are obtained after information from a receiver at depth has been considered in the inversion. Finally, the Rayleigh wave phase velocity information, estimated from array data, and the H/V(z, f) spectral ratio, estimated from a single station data, are combined and inverted for the velocity profile information. Obtained results indicate an improved depth resolution in comparison to estimations using the phase velocity dispersion curves only. The overall estimated sediment thickness is comparable to estimations obtained by inverting the full micortremor H/V spectral ratio. N2 - Oberflächennahe Sedimente wirken oft als Verstärker für einfallende seismische Wellenfelder. Im Rahmen meiner Doktorarbeit konzentriere ich mich auf die Eigenschaften des oberflächennahen Untergrundes von einigen zehn bis zu hundert Metern Sedimentabdeckung. Dabei leite ich Tiefenprofile (1D) der seismische Scherwellengeschwindigkeit (Vs) und wenn möglich auch der Kompressionswellengeschwindigkeit (Vp) aus seismischen Daten ab. Diese Informationen sind nicht nur für jede Erdbebenrisikobewertung, Geotechnik- oder Mikrozonierungsaktivität erforderlich, sondern sind auch für die seismische Erkundung und globale Seismologie von Bedeutung, da Standorteffekte in seismischen Wellenformmodellierungen oft vernachlässigt werden. Zuerst wird die herkömmliche Frequenz-Wellenzahl (f - k) Technik verwendet, um die Dispersionskurven der Phasengeschwindigkeit von Oberflächenwellen abzuleiten. Die zugrundeliegenden Daten stammen von Seismometerarrays in unterschiedlichen 1D- und 2D-Konfigurationen. In einem weiteren Schritt wird die Green’s Funktion zwischen verschiedenen Empfängerpaaren aus den Daten des seismischen Arrays geschätzt. Dabei wird die Kreuzkorrelationstechnik verwendet. In einem virtuellen 1D Experiment der aktiven Seismik werden die abgeleiteten Green’s Funktionen der Interstationsdistanz nach geordnet. Dann wird die f-k Technik verwendet um wiederum Dispersionskurven abzuleiten. Dieser integrierte Ansatz ermöglicht die Analyse einer grösseren Bandbreite für die Dispersionskurven und daher eine verbesserte Auflösung des 1D Tiefenprofils der Scherwellengeschwindigkeit (Vs). In einem zweiten Schritt wird ein neuer Ansatz, basierend auf der diffusen Wellenfeldannahme (engl., Diffuse Field Assumption, DFA), zur Interpretation beobachteter horizontal zu vertikalen Spektralamplitudenverhältnissen (H/V-Spektralverhältnisse), die aus allgemeiner Bodenunruhe abgeleited wurden,genutzt. Diese Theorie wurde im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit erweitert, um nicht nur an der Oberfläche gemessene H/V- Spektralverhältnisse interpretieren zu können sondern auch Messungen in der Tiefe (Bohrloch) und in mariner Umgebung (Ozeanboden). Eine Modellierung und Inversion von synthetischen HV- Spektralverhältnissen für vordefinierte, einfache geologische Strukturen zeigt eine nahezu perfekte Identifikation/Rekonstruktion der Modellparameter (im wesentlichen Vs und in geringerem Maße Vp), wenn die zusätzliche Information von HV- Spektralverhältnissen eines Empfängers in der Tiefe bei der Inversion berücksichtigt wird. Letztlich wurden (i) Phasengeschwindigkeiten von Rayleighwellen, die aus einem Arraydatensatz geschätzt wurden, mit (ii) H/V-Spektralverhältnissen einer Einzelstation kombiniert invertiert, um Tiefen-profile seismischer Geschwindigkeiten (Vs, Vp) zu bestimmen. Die Ergebnisse deuten daraufhin, dass sich mit einer kombinierte Inversion seismische Geschwindigkeiten bis in größere Tiefen bestimmen lassen, verglichen mit der Inversion von nur Phasengeschwindigkeiten allein. Die geschätzte Gesamtmächtigkeit von Oberflächensedimenten aufgrund der kombinierten Inversion ist vergleichbar mit der, abgleitet von nur H/V-Spektralverhältnissen. KW - active seismic KW - passive seismic KW - virtual active seismic KW - dispersion curves KW - inversion KW - Vs profiles KW - inverse theory KW - interferometry KW - site effects KW - aktive Seismik KW - passive Seismik KW - virtuelle aktive Seismik KW - Dispersionskurven KW - Inversion KW - Vs Profile KW - Inversionstheorie KW - Interferometrie KW - Standorteffekte Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-103807 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baes, Marzieh A1 - Gerya, Taras V. A1 - Sobolev, Stephan Vladimir T1 - 3-D thermo-mechanical modeling of plume-induced subduction initiation JF - Earth & planetary science letters N2 - Here, we study the 3-D subduction initiation process induced by the interaction between a hot thermochemical mantle plume and oceanic lithosphere using thermo-mechanical viscoplastic finite difference marker-in-cell models. Our numerical modeling results show that self-sustaining subduction is induced by plume-lithosphere interaction when the plume is sufficiently buoyant, the oceanic lithosphere is sufficiently old and the plate is weak enough to allow the buoyant plume to. pass through it. Subduction initiation occurs following penetration of the lithosphere by the hot plume and the downward displacement of broken, nearly circular segments of lithosphere (proto-slabs) as a result of partially molten plume rocks overriding the proto-slabs. Our experiments show four different deformation regimes in response to plume-lithosphere interaction: a) self-sustaining subduction initiation, in which subduction becomes self-sustaining; b) frozen subduction initiation, in which subduction stops at shallow depths; c) slab break-off, in which the subducting circular slab breaks off soon after formation; and d) plume underplating, in which the plume does not pass through the lithosphere and instead spreads beneath it (i.e., failed subduction initiation). These regimes depend on several parameters, such as the size, composition, and temperature of the plume, the brittle/plastic strength and age of the oceanic lithosphere, and the presence/absence of lithospheric heterogeneities. The results show that subduction initiates and becomes self-sustaining when the lithosphere is older than 10 Myr and the non dimensional ratio of the plume buoyancy force and lithospheric strength above the plume is higher than approximately 2. The outcomes of our numerical experiments are applicable for subduction initiation in the modern and Precambrian Earth and for the origin of plume-related corona structures on Venus. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - subduction initiation KW - mantle plume KW - oceanic lithosphere KW - numerical models Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.08.023 SN - 0012-821X SN - 1385-013X VL - 453 SP - 193 EP - 203 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schennen, Stephan A1 - Tronicke, Jens A1 - Wetterich, Sebastian A1 - Allroggen, Niklas A1 - Schwamborn, Georg A1 - Schirrmeister, Lutz T1 - 3D ground-penetrating radar imaging of ice complex deposits in northern East Siberia JF - Geophysics N2 - Ice complex deposits are characteristic, ice-rich formations in northern East Siberia and represent an important part in the arctic carbon pool. Recently, these late Quaternary deposits are the objective of numerous investigations typically relying on outcrop and borehole data. Many of these studies can benefit from a 3D structural model of the subsurface for upscaling their observations or for constraining estimations of inventories, such as the local carbon stock. We have addressed this problem of structural imaging by 3D ground-penetrating radar (GPR), which, in permafrost studies, has been primarily used for 2D profiling. We have used a 3D kinematic GPR surveying strategy at a field site located in the New Siberian Archipelago on top of an ice complex. After applying a 3D GPR processing sequence, we were able to trace two horizons at depths below 20 m. Taking available borehole and outcrop data into account, we have interpreted these two features as interfaces of major lithologic units and derived a 3D cryostratigraphic model of the subsurface. Our data example demonstrated that a 3D surveying and processing strategy was crucial at our field site and showed the potential of 3D GPR to image geologic structures in complex ice-rich permafrost landscapes. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1190/GEO2015-0129.1 SN - 0016-8033 SN - 1942-2156 VL - 81 SP - WA195 EP - WA202 PB - Society of Exploration Geophysicists CY - Tulsa ER - TY - JOUR A1 - van zanten, Boris T. A1 - Zasada, Ingo A1 - Koetse, Mark J. A1 - Ungaro, Fabrizio A1 - Hafner, Kati A1 - Verburg, Peter H. T1 - A comparative approach to assess the contribution of landscape features to aesthetic and recreational values in agricultural landscapes JF - Ecosystem Services : Science, Policy and Practice N2 - The importance of cultural ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes is increasingly recognized as agricultural scale enlargement and abandonment affect aesthetic and recreational values of agricultural landscapes. Landscape preference studies addressing these type of values often yield context-specific outcomes, limiting the applicability of their outcomes in landscape policy. Our approach measures the relative importance of landscape features across agricultural landscapes. This approach was applied in the agricultural landscapes of Winterswijk, The Netherlands (n=191) and the Markische Schweiz, Germany (n=113) among visitors in the agricultural landscape. We set up a parallel designed choice experiment, using regionally specific, photorealistic visualizations of four comparable landscape attributes. In the Dutch landscape visitors highly value hedgerows and tree lines, whereas groups of trees and crop diversity are highly valued in the German landscape. Furthermore, we find that differences in relative preference for landscape attributes are, to some extent, explained by socio-cultural background variables such as education level and affinity with agriculture of the visitors. This approach contributes to a better understanding of the cross-regional variation of aesthetic and recreational values and how these values relate to characteristics of the agricultural landscape, which could support the integration of cultural services in landscape policy. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Cultural ecosystem services KW - Landscape preferences KW - Comparative study KW - Landscape aesthetics KW - Landscape values KW - Agricultural landscape Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.11.011 SN - 2212-0416 VL - 17 SP - 87 EP - 98 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jambrina-Enriquez, Margarita A1 - Sachse, Dirk A1 - Valero-Garces, Blas L. T1 - A deglaciation and Holocene biomarker-based reconstruction of climate and environmental variability in NW Iberian Peninsula: the Sanabria Lake sequence JF - Journal of paleolimnolog N2 - The molecular biomarker composition of two sediment cores from Sanabria Lake (NW Iberian Peninsula) and a survey of modern plants in the watershed provide a reconstruction of past vegetation and landscape dynamics since deglaciation. During a proglacial stage in Lake Sanabria (prior to 14.7 cal ka BP), very low biomarker concentration and carbon preference index (CPI) values similar to 1 suggest that the n-alkanes could have derived from eroded ancient sediment sources or older organic matter with high degree of maturity. During the Late glacial (14.7-11.7 cal ka BP) and the Holocene (last 11.7 cal ka BP) intervals with higher biomarker and triterpenoid concentrations (high %nC(29) , nC(31) alkanes), higher CPI and average carbon length (ACL), and lower P-aq (proportion of aquatic plants) are indicative of major contribution of vascular land plants from a more forested watershed (e.g. Mid Holocene period 7.0-4.0 cal ka BP). Lower biomarker concentrations (high %nC(27) alkanes), CPI and ACL values responded to short phases with decreased allochthonous contribution into the lake that correspond to centennial-scale periods of regional forest decline (e.g. 4-3 ka BP, Roman deforestation after 2.0 ka, and some phases of the LIA, seventeenth-nineteenth centuries). Human activities in the watershed were significant during early medieval times (1.3-1.0 cal ka BP) and since 1960 CE, in both cases associated with relatively higher productivity stages in the lake (lower biomarker and triterpenoid concentrations, high %nC(23) and %nC(31) respectively, lower ACL and CPI values and higher P-aq). The lipid composition of Sanabria Lake sediments indicates a major allochthonous (watershed-derived) contribution to the organic matter budget since deglaciation, and a dominant oligotrophic status during the lake history. The study constrains the climate and anthropogenic forcings and watershed versus lake sources in organic matter accumulation processes and helps to design conservation and management policies in mountain, oligotrophic lakes. KW - Plant n-alkanes KW - Lipid biomarker KW - Sanabria Lake KW - n-Alkanes KW - Holocene KW - Lateglacial KW - Iberian Peninsula Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-016-9890-6 SN - 0921-2728 SN - 1573-0417 VL - 56 SP - 49 EP - 66 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - de Araujo, Jose Carlos A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - A method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments and its application to the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil JF - Water International N2 - This manuscript proposes a method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments under high impoundment rate and applies it to the semi-arid Jaguaribe River basin in Brazil. It analyzes droughts (1) in the largest reservoir systems; (2) in the Upper Basin, considering 4744 reservoirs, 800 wells and almost 18,000 cisterns; and (3) in reservoirs of different sizes during multiyear droughts. Results show that the water demand is constrained in the basin; hydrological and meteorological droughts are often out of phase; there is a negative correlation between storage level and drought severity; and the small systems cannot cope with long-term droughts. KW - Reservoirs KW - Brazil KW - multiyear drought KW - water management KW - impoundment rate KW - water demand Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2015.1113077 SN - 0250-8060 SN - 1941-1707 VL - 41 SP - 213 EP - 230 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ziegler, Moritz O. A1 - Heidbach, Oliver A1 - Reinecker, John A1 - Przybycin, Anna M. A1 - Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena T1 - A multi-stage 3-D stress field modelling approach exemplified in the Bavarian Molasse Basin JF - Solid earth Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/se-7-1365-2016 SN - 1869-9510 SN - 1869-9529 VL - 7 SP - 1365 EP - 1382 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Yepes, Hugo A1 - Audin, Laurence A1 - Alvarado, Alexandra A1 - Beauval, Celine A1 - Aguilar, Jorge A1 - Font, Yvonne A1 - Cotton, Fabrice T1 - A new view for the geodynamics of Ecuador: Implication in seismogenic source definition and seismic hazard assessment JF - Tectonics N2 - A new view of Ecuador's complex geodynamics has been developed in the course of modeling seismic source zones for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This study focuses on two aspects of the plates' interaction at a continental scale: (a) age-related differences in rheology between Farallon and Nazca plates—marked by the Grijalva rifted margin and its inland projection—as they subduct underneath central Ecuador, and (b) the rapidly changing convergence obliquity resulting from the convex shape of the South American northwestern continental margin. Both conditions satisfactorily explain several characteristics of the observed seismicity and of the interseismic coupling. Intermediate-depth seismicity reveals a severe flexure in the Farallon slab as it dips and contorts at depth, originating the El Puyo seismic cluster. The two slabs position and geometry below continental Ecuador also correlate with surface expressions observable in the local and regional geology and tectonics. The interseismic coupling is weak and shallow south of the Grijalva rifted margin and increases northward, with a heterogeneous pattern locally associated to the Carnegie ridge subduction. High convergence obliquity is responsible for the North Andean Block northeastward movement along localized fault systems. The Cosanga and Pallatanga fault segments of the North Andean Block-South American boundary concentrate most of the seismic moment release in continental Ecuador. Other inner block faults located along the western border of the inter-Andean Depression also show a high rate of moderate-size earthquake production. Finally, a total of 19 seismic source zones were modeled in accordance with the proposed geodynamic and neotectonic scheme. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2015TC003941 SN - 0278-7407 SN - 1944-9194 VL - 35 SP - 1249 EP - 1279 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - THES A1 - Falter, Daniela T1 - A novel approach for large-scale flood risk assessments T1 - Ein neuartiger Ansatz für großskalige Hochwasserrisikoanalysen BT - continuous and long-term simulation of the full flood risk chain BT - kontinuierliche Langzeitsimulation der gesamten Hochwasserrisikokette N2 - In the past, floods were basically managed by flood control mechanisms. The focus was set on the reduction of flood hazard. The potential consequences were of minor interest. Nowadays river flooding is increasingly seen from the risk perspective, including possible consequences. Moreover, the large-scale picture of flood risk became increasingly important for disaster management planning, national risk developments and the (re-) insurance industry. Therefore, it is widely accepted that risk-orientated flood management ap-proaches at the basin-scale are needed. However, large-scale flood risk assessment methods for areas of several 10,000 km² are still in early stages. Traditional flood risk assessments are performed reach wise, assuming constant probabilities for the entire reach or basin. This might be helpful on a local basis, but where large-scale patterns are important this approach is of limited use. Assuming a T-year flood (e.g. 100 years) for the entire river network is unrealistic and would lead to an overestimation of flood risk at the large scale. Due to the lack of damage data, additionally, the probability of peak discharge or rainfall is usually used as proxy for damage probability to derive flood risk. With a continuous and long term simulation of the entire flood risk chain, the spatial variability of probabilities could be consider and flood risk could be directly derived from damage data in a consistent way. The objective of this study is the development and application of a full flood risk chain, appropriate for the large scale and based on long term and continuous simulation. The novel approach of ‘derived flood risk based on continuous simulations’ is introduced, where the synthetic discharge time series is used as input into flood impact models and flood risk is directly derived from the resulting synthetic damage time series. The bottleneck at this scale is the hydrodynamic simu-lation. To find suitable hydrodynamic approaches for the large-scale a benchmark study with simplified 2D hydrodynamic models was performed. A raster-based approach with inertia formulation and a relatively high resolution of 100 m in combination with a fast 1D channel routing model was chosen. To investigate the suitability of the continuous simulation of a full flood risk chain for the large scale, all model parts were integrated into a new framework, the Regional Flood Model (RFM). RFM consists of the hydrological model SWIM, a 1D hydrodynamic river network model, a 2D raster based inundation model and the flood loss model FELMOps+r. Subsequently, the model chain was applied to the Elbe catchment, one of the largest catchments in Germany. For the proof-of-concept, a continuous simulation was per-formed for the period of 1990-2003. Results were evaluated / validated as far as possible with available observed data in this period. Although each model part introduced its own uncertainties, results and runtime were generally found to be adequate for the purpose of continuous simulation at the large catchment scale. Finally, RFM was applied to a meso-scale catchment in the east of Germany to firstly perform a flood risk assessment with the novel approach of ‘derived flood risk assessment based on continuous simulations’. Therefore, RFM was driven by long term synthetic meteorological input data generated by a weather generator. Thereby, a virtual time series of climate data of 100 x 100 years was generated and served as input to RFM providing subsequent 100 x 100 years of spatially consistent river discharge series, inundation patterns and damage values. On this basis, flood risk curves and expected annual damage could be derived directly from damage data, providing a large-scale picture of flood risk. In contrast to traditional flood risk analysis, where homogenous return periods are assumed for the entire basin, the presented approach provides a coherent large-scale picture of flood risk. The spatial variability of occurrence probability is respected. Additionally, data and methods are consistent. Catchment and floodplain processes are repre-sented in a holistic way. Antecedent catchment conditions are implicitly taken into account, as well as physical processes like storage effects, flood attenuation or channel–floodplain interactions and related damage influencing effects. Finally, the simulation of a virtual period of 100 x 100 years and consequently large data set on flood loss events enabled the calculation of flood risk directly from damage distributions. Problems associated with the transfer of probabilities in rainfall or peak runoff to probabilities in damage, as often used in traditional approaches, are bypassed. RFM and the ‘derived flood risk approach based on continuous simulations’ has the potential to provide flood risk statements for national planning, re-insurance aspects or other questions where spatially consistent, large-scale assessments are required. N2 - In der Vergangenheit standen bei der Betrachtung von Hochwasser insbesondere technische Schutzmaßnahmen und die Reduzierung der Hochwassergefahr im Mittelpunkt. Inzwischen wird Hochwasser zunehmend aus der Risikoperspektive betrachtet, d.h. neben der Gefährdung werden auch die Auswirkungen berücksichtigt. In diesem Zuge wurde auch die Notwendigkeit von großräumigen Hochwasserrisikoanalysen für das Management von Naturgefahren und als Planungsgrundlage auf nationaler Ebene sowie für die Rückversicherungsindustrie erkannt. Insbesondere durch die Einführung der Europäischen Hochwasserrisikomanagement Richtlinie sind risikoorientierte Managementpläne auf Einzugsgebietsebene obligatorisch. Allerdings befinden sich großräumige Hochwasserrisikoanalysen von mehreren 10.000 km², noch in den Anfängen. Traditionell werden Hochwasserrisikoanalysen für Gewässerabschnitte durchgeführt, wobei homogene Wiederkehrintervalle für das ganze Untersuchungsgebiet angenommen werden. Für lokale Fragestellungen ist diese Vorgehensweise sinnvoll, dies gilt allerdings nicht für die großräumige Analyse des Hochwasserrisikos. Die Annahme eines beispielsweise 100-jährigen Hochwassers im gesamten Gebiet ist unrealistisch und das Hochwasserrisiko würde dabei stark überschätzt werden. Aufgrund unzureichender Schadensdaten werden bei der Berechnung des Risikos oftmals die Wahrscheinlichkeiten des Niederschlags oder der Hochwasserscheitelabflüsse als Annäherung für die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Schadens angenommen. Durch eine kontinuierliche Langzeit-Simulation der gesamten Hochwasserrisikokette könnte sowohl die räumliche Verteilung der Wiederkehrintervalle berücksichtig werden, als auch das Hochwasserrisiko direkt aus Schadenszeitreihen abgeleitet werden. Die Zielsetzung dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung und Anwendung einer, für großräumige Gebiete geeigneten, kontinuierlichen Hochwasserrisikomodellkette. Damit wird ein neuartiger Ansatz des ‚abgeleiteten Hochwasserrisikos basierend auf kontinuierlichen Simulationen‘ eingeführt, der das Hochwasserrisiko direkt aus den simulierten Abflusszeitreichen und den daraus resultierenden Schadenzeitreihen ableitet. Die größte Herausforderung der Hochwasserrisikokette liegt bei den sehr rechenintensiven, detaillierten hydraulischen Simulationen. Um geeignete hydraulische Modelle für die großräumige Anwendung zu identifizieren, wurde eine Benchmark-Studie mit 2D Modellen unterschiedlicher Komplexität durchgeführt. Auf dieser Grundlage wurde für die Hochwasserrisikomodellkette ein rasterbasierter Ansatz mit einer relativ hohen Auflösung von 100 m in Kombination mit einem schnellen 1D Fließgewässermodell ausgewählt. Um die Eignung einer kontinuierlichen Simulation der gesamten Hochwasserrisikokette für großräumige Anwendungen zu prüfen, wurden zunächst alle Komponenten der Modellkette im ‚Regional Flood Model‘ (RFM) zusammengeführt. RFM besteht aus dem hydrologischen Modell SWIM, 1D und 2D hydraulischen Modellen, sowie dem Schadensmodell FELMOps+r. Nachfolgend wurde die Modellkette für das Elbe-Einzugsgebiet (>60.000 km²) angewendet. Es wurde eine kontinuierliche Simulation für den Zeitraum 1990-2003 durchgeführt. Die Ergebnisse wurden nach Möglichkeit mit vorhandenen Messdaten validiert/evaluiert. Auch wenn jede Komponente zu Unsicherheiten in den Ergebnissen der Modellkette beiträgt, sind die Ergebnisse und Rechenzeiten für die Anwendung auf großskaliger Einzugsgebietsebene als adäquat anzusehen. Schließlich wurde RFM in einem mesoskaligen Einzugsgebiet (6.000 km²) im Osten von Deutschland angewendet, um erstmals eine Hochwasserrisikoanalyse mit dem neuartigen Ansatz des ‚abgeleiteten Hochwasserrisikos basierend auf kontinuierlichen Simulationen‘ durchzuführen. Als Input wurde eine 100 x 100-jährige Zeitreihe meteorologischer Daten von einem Wettergenerator erzeugt. Die somit erzeugte 100 x 100-jährige konsistente Abflusszeitreihe, Überschwemmungsmuster und Schadenswerte dienten als Basis für die nachfolgende Erstellung von Hochwasserrisikokurven und Schadenserwartungswerten für das Untersuchungsgebiet. Diese ermöglichen eine großräumige Analyse des Hochwasserrisikos. Dabei wurde die räumliche Variation der Wahrscheinlichkeiten berücksichtigt. Die verwendeten Daten und Methoden waren außerdem im gesamten Untersuchungsgebiet einheitlich. Einzugsgebietsprozesse und Prozesse der Überschwemmungsflächen werden holistisch dargestellt. Die Vorbedingungen im Einzugsgebiet sowie physikalische Prozesse, wie Rückhalteeffekte, Überlagerungseffekte im Gewässernetz oder Interaktionen zwischen Fluss und Überschwemmungsflächen, werden implizit berücksichtigt. Die Simulation von 100 x 100 Jahren und die daraus resultierende große Anzahl an Schadensdaten ermöglichen die direkte Berechnung des Hochwasserrisikos aus Schadenswahrscheinlichkeiten. Die Probleme, die durch die Übertragung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten von Niederschlag oder Scheitelabfluss auf die Wahrscheinlichkeiten im Schaden resultieren, werden umgangen. RFM und der Ansatz des ‚abgeleiteten Hochwasserrisikos basierend auf kontinuierlichen Simulationen‘ haben das Potential Hochwasserrisikoaussagen für nationale Planungen, Rückversicherungsaspekte oder andere Fragestellungen, bei denen räumlich konsistente und großräumige Analysen nötig sind, zu treffen. KW - flood risk KW - hydraulic simulation KW - flood risk analysis KW - risk model chain KW - floodplain inundation KW - Hochwasserrisikoanalysen KW - Hochwasserrisikokette KW - Überschwemmungsflächen KW - kontinuierlicher Simulationsansatz Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-90239 ER -