TY - GEN A1 - Mysiak, Jaroslav A1 - Surminski, Swenja A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Mechler, Reinhard A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Brief communication BT - Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction - success or warning sign for Paris? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SF-DRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 524 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410149 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 524 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mysiak, Jaroslav A1 - Surminski, Swenja A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Mechler, Reinhard A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Brief communication: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction - success or warning sign for Paris? JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SF-DRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 16 SP - 2189 EP - 2193 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Pech, Ina A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Buchholz, Oliver A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households JF - Water N2 - Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage. KW - pluvial floods KW - surface water flooding KW - emergency response KW - early warning KW - preparedness KW - damage KW - mitigation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w8070304 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 8 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Boessenkool, Berry A1 - Fischer, Madlen A1 - Hahn, Irene A1 - Köhn, Lisei A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Moran, Thomas A1 - Öztürk, Ugur A1 - Riemer, Adrian A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Die Sturzflut in Braunsbach, Mai 2016 T1 - The flash flood of Braunsbach, May 2006 BT - eine Bestandsaufnahme und Ereignisbeschreibung BT - a hydrological survey and event analysis N2 - Im Graduiertenkolleg NatRiskChange der Universität Potsdam und anderen Forschungseinrichtungen werden beobachtete sowie zukünftig mögliche Veränderungen von Naturgefahren untersucht. Teil des strukturierten Doktorandenprogramms sind sogenannte Task-Force-Einsätze, bei denen die Promovierende zeitlich begrenzt ein aktuelles Ereignis auswerten. Im Zuge dieser Aktivität wurde die Sturzflut vom 29.05.2016 in Braunsbach (Baden-Württemberg) untersucht. In diesem Bericht werden erste Auswertungen zur Einordnung der Niederschläge, zu den hydrologischen und geomorphologischen Prozessen im Einzugsgebiet des Orlacher Bachs sowie zu den verursachten Schäden beleuchtet. Die Region war Zentrum extremer Regenfälle in der Größenordnung von 100 mm innerhalb von 2 Stunden. Das 6 km² kleine Einzugsgebiet hat eine sehr schnelle Reaktionszeit, zumal bei vorgesättigtem Boden. Im steilen Bachtal haben mehrere kleinere und größere Hangrutschungen über 8000 m³ Geröll, Schutt und Schwemmholz in das Gewässer eingetragen und möglicherweise kurzzeitige Aufstauungen und Durchbrüche verursacht. Neben den großen Wassermengen mit einer Abflussspitze in einer Größenordnung von 100 m³/s hat gerade die Geschiebefracht zu großen Schäden an den Gebäuden entlang des Bachlaufs in Braunsbach geführt. N2 - The DFG graduate school “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange), which is located at the University of Potsdam and its partner institutions, studies previous as well as ongoing and potential future changes in the risk posed by natural hazards. The education program includes so-called task force activities, where the PhD students conduct a rapid event assessment directly after the occurrence of a hazardous natural event. Within this context the flash flood that hit the village Braunsbach (Baden-Württemberg, Germany) at May 29th, 2016 was investigated. This report summarizes first results describing the rainfall amount and intensities as well as hydrological and geomorphological processes in the corresponding catchment area of the Orlacher Bach. Further, the damages caused in Braunsbach are investigated. Rainfall intensity measures documented extreme precipitation in the area of Braunsbach with a cumulative amount of about 100 mm within 2 hours. The small catchment area, with a size of 6 km², has a small response time, especially under pre-saturated soil conditions. Several landslides, that occurred at the steep slopes of the river valley, transported more than 8000 m³ of gravel, debris and organic material into the water runoff. They may have caused temporal blockades, that collapsed after a certain amount of water accumulated. In addition to the high discharge, with peak values in the order of 100 m³/s, the high sediment content of the flash flood is mainly responsible for the large damages caused to the buildings in Braunsbach. KW - Sturzflut KW - Naturgefahren KW - Extremniederschlag KW - Schadensabschätzung KW - Hangrutschungen KW - flash flood KW - natural hazards KW - extreme precipitation KW - damage assessment KW - landslides Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394881 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Cammerer, Holger A1 - Dobler, Christian A1 - Lammel, Johannes A1 - Schoeberl, Fritz T1 - Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol, Austria JF - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change N2 - Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses-with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures. KW - Flood risk KW - Scenarios KW - Adaptation to climate change KW - Hazard KW - Vulnerability KW - Lech catchment Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9602-3 SN - 1381-2386 SN - 1573-1596 VL - 21 SP - 343 EP - 376 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kundela, Guenther A1 - Dosio, Alessandro A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing ClimateAssessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria JF - Climate : open access journal N2 - Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite. KW - climate change KW - critical meteorological condition KW - frequency analysis KW - natural hazard management KW - railway transportation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020025 SN - 2225-1154 VL - 4 SP - 914 EP - 931 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Schönberger, Christine A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL) T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 555 KW - climate KW - Europe KW - projections KW - events Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411915 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 555 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Schönberger, Christine A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL) JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 16 SP - 2357 EP - 2371 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Mühr, Bernhard A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013 N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 294 KW - August 2002 flood KW - Central Europe KW - Floods Directive KW - June 2013 flood KW - governance KW - risk management cycle Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-100600 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Mühr, Bernhard A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013 JF - Ecology and society : E&S ; a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders. KW - August 2002 flood KW - Central Europe KW - Floods Directive KW - governance KW - June 2013 flood KW - risk management cycle Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08547-210251 SN - 1708-3087 SN - 1195-5449 VL - 21 IS - 2 PB - Resilience Alliance CY - Wolfville, NS ER -