TY - JOUR A1 - Palmer, Matthew D. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan A1 - Bagge, Meike A1 - Calvert, Daley A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius A1 - Howard, Tom A1 - Klemann, Volker A1 - Lowe, Jason A. A1 - Roberts, Chris A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A. A1 - Spada, Giorgio T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond JF - Earth's future N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. KW - climate change KW - CMIP5 models KW - RCP scenarios KW - sea-level projections KW - tide gauge observations Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 8 IS - 9 SP - 1 EP - 25 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huber, Veronika A1 - Krummenauer, Linda A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina A1 - Lange, Stefan A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo A1 - Frieler, Katja T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming JF - Environmental Research N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities. KW - temperature-related mortality KW - climate change KW - Future projections KW - Germany KW - global mean temperature Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447 SN - 0013-9351 SN - 1096-0953 VL - 186 SP - 1 EP - 10 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego, California ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera BT - a study on recent and ancient sedimentary DNA JF - Journal of Biogeography N2 - Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming. KW - ancient sedimentary DNA KW - Arctic lakes KW - assembly rules KW - climate change KW - diatoms KW - environmental filtering KW - phylogenetic diversity KW - Siberian tree line Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13786 SN - 0305-0270 SN - 1365-2699 VL - 47 IS - 5 SP - 1166 EP - 1179 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sedova, Barbora A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Mendelsohn, Robert T1 - Distributional impacts of weather and climate in rural India JF - Economics of disasters and climate change N2 - Climate-related costs and benefits may not be evenly distributed across the population. We study distributional implications of seasonal weather and climate on within-country inequality in rural India. Utilizing a first difference approach, we find that the poor are more sensitive to weather variations than the non-poor. The poor respond more strongly to (seasonal) temperature changes: negatively in the (warm) spring season, more positively in the (cold) rabi season. Less precipitation is harmful to the poor in the monsoon kharif season and beneficial in the winter and spring seasons. We show that adverse weather aggravates inequality by reducing consumption of the poor farming households. Future global warming predicted under RCP8.5 is likely to exacerbate these effects, reducing consumption of poor farming households by one third until the year 2100. We also find inequality in consumption across seasons with higher consumption during the harvest and lower consumption during the sowing seasons. KW - climate change KW - weather KW - inequality KW - household analysis KW - India KW - econometrics Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-019-00051-1 SN - 2511-1280 SN - 2511-1299 VL - 4 IS - 1 SP - 5 EP - 44 PB - Springer CY - Cham ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Wenz, Leonie T1 - The impact of climate conditions on economic production BT - evidence from a global panel of regions JF - Journal of Environmental Economics and Management N2 - We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. KW - climate change KW - climate damages KW - climate impacts KW - growth regression KW - global warming KW - panel regression KW - cross-sectional regression KW - damage KW - function KW - social costs of carbon Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360 SN - 0095-0696 SN - 1096-0449 VL - 103 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Guzman, Diego A. A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario T1 - Multi-year index-based insurance for adapting Water Utility Companies to hydrological drought BT - case study of a water supply system of the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, Brazil JF - Water N2 - The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, business sustainability. This research estimated the possible economic impacts of business interruption to the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company derived from hydrological drought and how this could be mitigated with an insurance scheme. Multi-year insurance (MYI) was proposed through a set of "change" drivers: the climate driver, through forcing the water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) hydrological tool; the anthropogenic driver, through water demand projections; and the economic driver, associated with recent water price policies adopted by the utility company during water scarcity periods. In our study case, the evaluated indices showed that MYI contracts that cover only longer droughts, regardless of the magnitude, offer better financial performance than contracts that cover all events (in terms of drought duration). Moreover, through MYI contracts, we demonstrate solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and an annual average actuarially fair premium close to the total expected revenue reduction. KW - multi-year insurance KW - climate change KW - hydrological drought KW - water KW - security and economy Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12112954 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 12 IS - 11 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sælen, Håkon A1 - Hovi, Jon A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Underdal, Arild T1 - How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement JF - Environmental science & policy N2 - Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2 degrees C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others' promises and contributions. Second, while the 2 degrees C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreements institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions. KW - climate change KW - Paris agreement KW - President Trump KW - 2 degrees C target KW - agent-based modeling KW - reciprocity Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.011 SN - 1462-9011 SN - 1873-6416 VL - 108 SP - 121 EP - 132 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mogrovejo Arias, Diana Carolina A1 - Brill, Florian H. H. A1 - Wagner, Dirk T1 - Potentially pathogenic bacteria isolated from diverse habitats in Spitsbergen, Svalbard JF - Environmental earth sciences N2 - The Arctic ecosystem, a reservoir of genetic microbial diversity, represents a virtually unlimited source of microorganisms that could interact with human beings. Despite continuous exploration of Arctic habitats and description of their microbial communities, bacterial phenotypes commonly associated with pathogenicity, such as hemolytic activity, have rarely been reported. In this study, samples of snow, fresh and marine water, soil, and sediment from several habitats in the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard were collected during Summer, 2017. Bacterial isolates were obtained after incubation on oligotrophic media at different temperatures and their hemolytic potential was assessed on sheep blood agar plates. Partial (alpha) or true (beta) hemolysis was observed in 32 out of 78 bacterial species. Genes expressing cytolytic compounds, such as hemolysins, likely increase the general fitness of the producing microorganisms and confer a competitive advantage over the availability of nutrients in natural habitats. In environmental species, the nutrient-acquisition function of these compounds presumably precedes their function as toxins for mammalian erythrocytes. However, in the light of global warming, the presence of hemolytic bacteria in Arctic environments highlights the possible risks associated with these microorganisms in the event of habitat melting/destruction, ecosystem transition, and re-colonization. KW - Arctic KW - Svalbard KW - hemolysins KW - climate change KW - pathogens KW - virulence Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-8853-4 SN - 1866-6280 SN - 1866-6299 VL - 79 IS - 5 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ; Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Marzetz, Vanessa A1 - Spijkerman, Elly A1 - Striebel, Maren A1 - Wacker, Alexander T1 - Phytoplankton community responses to interactions between light intensity, light variations, and phosphorus supply JF - Frontiers in Environmental Science N2 - In a changing world, phytoplankton communities face a large variety of challenges including altered light regimes. These alterations are caused by more pronounced stratification due to rising temperatures, enhanced eutrophication, and browning of lakes. Community responses toward these effects can emerge as alterations in physiology, biomass, biochemical composition, or diversity. In this study, we addressed the combined effects of changes in light and nutrient conditions on community responses. In particular, we investigated how light intensity and variability under two nutrient conditions influence (1) fast responses such as adjustments in photosynthesis, (2) intermediate responses such as pigment adaptation and (3) slow responses such as changes in community biomass and species composition. Therefore, we exposed communities consisting of five phytoplankton species belonging to different taxonomic groups to two constant and two variable light intensity treatments combined with two levels of phosphorus supply. The tested phytoplankton communities exhibited increased fast reactions of photosynthetic processes to light variability and light intensity. The adjustment of their light harvesting mechanisms via community pigment composition was not affected by light intensity, variability, or nutrient supply. However, pigment specific effects of light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply on the proportion of the respective pigments were detected. Biomass was positively affected by higher light intensity and nutrient concentrations while the direction of the effect of variability was modulated by light intensity. Light variability had a negative impact on biomass at low, but a positive impact at high light intensity. The effects on community composition were species specific. Generally, the proportion of green algae was higher under high light intensity, whereas the cyanobacterium performed better under low light conditions. In addition to that, the diatom and the cryptophyte performed better with high nutrient supply while the green algae as well as the cyanobacterium performed better at low nutrient conditions. This shows that light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply interactively affect communities. Furthermore, the responses are highly species and pigment specific, thus to clarify the effects of climate change a deeper understanding of the effects of light variability and species interactions within communities is important. KW - phytoplankton communities KW - light variability KW - photosynthetic rate KW - climate change KW - resource competition KW - light intensity (irradiance) KW - pigment composition KW - nutrient supply Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.539733 SN - 2296-665X VL - 8 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wolf, Sabina A1 - Pham, My A1 - Matthews, Nathanial A1 - Bubeck, Philip T1 - Understanding the implementation gap BT - policy-makers’ perceptions of ecosystem-based adaptation in Central Vietnam JF - Climate & development N2 - In recent years, nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention in the field of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation as inclusive, no regret approaches. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can mitigate the impacts of climate change, build resilience and tackle environmental degradation thereby supporting the targets set by the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework. Despite these benefits, EbA is still rarely implemented in practice. To better understand the barriers to implementation, this research examines policy-makers' perceptions of EbA, using an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory as an analytical framework. Through semi-structured interviews with policy-makers at regional and provincial level in Central Vietnam, it was found that EbA is generally considered a promising response option, mainly due to its multiple ecosystem-service benefits. The demand for EbA measures was largely driven by the perceived consequences of natural hazards and climate change. Insufficient perceived response efficacy and time-lags in effectiveness for disaster risk reduction were identified as key impediments for implementation. Pilot projects and capacity building on EbA are important means to overcome these perceptual barriers. This paper contributes to bridging the knowledge-gap on political decision-making regarding EbA and can, thereby, promote its mainstreaming into policy plans. KW - climate change KW - ecosystem-based adaptation KW - risk perception KW - protection KW - motivation theory KW - decision making Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1724068 SN - 1756-5529 SN - 1756-5537 VL - 13 IS - 1 SP - 81 EP - 94 PB - Taylor & Francis LTD CY - Abingdon ER -