TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kalkuhl, Matthias
A1  - Wenz, Leonie
T1  - The impact of climate conditions on economic production
BT  - evidence from a global panel of regions
JF  - Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
N2  - We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.
KW  - climate change
KW  - climate damages
KW  - climate impacts
KW  - growth regression
KW  - global warming
KW  - panel regression
KW  - cross-sectional regression
KW  - damage
KW  - function
KW  - social costs of carbon
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360
SN  - 0095-0696
SN  - 1096-0449
VL  - 103
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - San Diego
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Clark, Peter U.
A1  - Marzeion, Ben
A1  - Milne, Glenn A.
A1  - Pollard, David
A1  - Radic, Valentina
A1  - Robinson, Alexander
T1  - The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming
JF  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
N2  - Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m degrees C-1 and 1.2 m degrees C-1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m degrees C-1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.
KW  - climate change
KW  - climate impacts
KW  - sea-level change
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219414110
SN  - 0027-8424
VL  - 110
IS  - 34
SP  - 13745
EP  - 13750
PB  - National Acad. of Sciences
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schneider, Birgit
A1  - Walsh, Lynda
T1  - The politics of zoom
BT  - Problems with downscaling climate visualizations
JF  - Geo: Geography and Environment
N2  - Following the mandate in the Paris Agreement for signatories to provide “climate services” to their constituents, “downscaled” climate visualizations are proliferating. But the process of downscaling climate visualizations does not neutralize the political problems with their synoptic global sources—namely, their failure to empower communities to take action and their replication of neoliberal paradigms of globalization. In this study we examine these problems as they apply to interactive climate‐visualization platforms, which allow their users to localize global climate information to support local political action. By scrutinizing the political implications of the “zoom” tool from the perspective of media studies and rhetoric, we add to perspectives of cultural cartography on the issue of scaling from our fields. Namely, we break down the cinematic trope of “zooming” to reveal how it imports the political problems of synopticism to the level of individual communities. As a potential antidote to the politics of zoom, we recommend a downscaling strategy of connectivity, which associates rather than reduces situated views of climate to global ones.
KW  - climate change
KW  - climate services
KW  - climate visualization
KW  - connectivity
KW  - downscaling
KW  - spherical
KW  - synopticism
KW  - zoom
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/geo2.70
SN  - 2054-4049
VL  - 6
IS  - 1
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - De Frenne, Pieter
A1  - Graae, Bente J.
A1  - Brunet, Jörg
A1  - Shevtsova, Anna
A1  - De Schrijver, An
A1  - Chabrerie, Olivier
A1  - Cousins, Sara A. O.
A1  - Decocq, Guillaume
A1  - Diekmann, Martin
A1  - Hermy, Martin
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Kolb, Annette
A1  - Nilsson, Christer
A1  - Stanton, Sharon
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
T1  - The response of forest plant regeneration to temperature variation along a latitudinal gradient
JF  - Annals of botany
N2  - The response of forest herb regeneration from seed to temperature variations across latitudes was experimentally assessed in order to forecast the likely response of understorey community dynamics to climate warming.
 Seeds of two characteristic forest plants (Anemone nemorosa and Milium effusum) were collected in natural populations along a latitudinal gradient from northern France to northern Sweden and exposed to three temperature regimes in growth chambers (first experiment). To test the importance of local adaptation, reciprocal transplants were also made of adult individuals that originated from the same populations in three common gardens located in southern, central and northern sites along the same gradient, and the resulting seeds were germinated (second experiment). Seedling establishment was quantified by measuring the timing and percentage of seedling emergence, and seedling biomass in both experiments.
 Spring warming increased emergence rates and seedling growth in the early-flowering forb A. nemorosa. Seedlings of the summer-flowering grass M. effusum originating from northern populations responded more strongly in terms of biomass growth to temperature than southern populations. The above-ground biomass of the seedlings of both species decreased with increasing latitude of origin, irrespective of whether seeds were collected from natural populations or from the common gardens. The emergence percentage decreased with increasing home-away distance in seeds from the transplant experiment, suggesting that the maternal plants were locally adapted.
 Decreasing seedling emergence and growth were found from the centre to the northern edge of the distribution range for both species. Stronger responses to temperature variation in seedling growth of the grass M. effusum in the north may offer a way to cope with environmental change. The results further suggest that climate warming might differentially affect seedling establishment of understorey plants across their distribution range and thus alter future understorey plant dynamics.
KW  - Anemone nemorosa
KW  - climate change
KW  - common garden
KW  - growth chambers
KW  - latitudinal gradient
KW  - local adaptation
KW  - Milium effusum
KW  - plant regeneration
KW  - range edges
KW  - recruitment
KW  - seedling establishment
KW  - temperature
Y1  - 2012
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcs015
SN  - 0305-7364
VL  - 109
IS  - 5
SP  - 1037
EP  - 1046
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hickmann, Thomas
A1  - Widerberg, Oscar
A1  - Lederer, Markus
A1  - Pattberg, Philipp H.
T1  - The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat as an orchestrator in global climate policymaking
JF  - International review of administrative sciences : an international journal of comparative public administration
N2  - Scholars have recently devoted increasing attention to the role and function of international bureaucracies in global policymaking. Some of them contend that international public officials have gained significant political influence in various policy fields. Compared to other international bureaucracies, the political leeway of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has been considered rather limited. Due to the specific problem structure of the policy domain of climate change, national governments endowed this intergovernmental treaty secretariat with a relatively narrow mandate. However, this article argues that in the past few years, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat has gradually loosened its straitjacket and expanded its original spectrum of activity by engaging different sub-national and non-state actors into a policy dialogue using facilitative orchestration as a mode of governance. The present article explores the recent evolution of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat and investigates the way in which it initiates, guides, broadens and strengthens sub-national and non-state climate actions to achieve progress in the international climate negotiations. <br /> Points for practitioners <br /> The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has lately adopted new roles and functions in global climate policymaking. While previously seen as a rather technocratic body that, first and foremost, serves national governments, the Climate Secretariat increasingly interacts with sub-national governments, civil society organizations and private companies to push the global response to climate change forward. We contend that the Climate Secretariat can contribute to global climate policymaking by coordinating and steering the initiatives of non-nation-state actors towards coherence and good practice.
KW  - climate change
KW  - environmental policymaking
KW  - intergovernmental relations
KW  - international bureaucracies
KW  - sub-national and non-state actors
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1177/0020852319840425
SN  - 0020-8523
SN  - 1461-7226
VL  - 87
IS  - 1
SP  - 21
EP  - 38
PB  - Sage
CY  - Los Angeles, Calif. [u.a.]
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Steffen, Will
A1  - Röckstrom, Johan
A1  - Richardson, Katherine
A1  - Lenton, Timothy M.
A1  - Folke, Carl
A1  - Liverman, Diana
A1  - Summerhayes, Colin P.
A1  - Barnosky, Anthony D.
A1  - Cornell, Sarah E.
A1  - Crucifix, Michel
A1  - Donges, Jonathan
A1  - Fetzer, Ingo
A1  - Lade, Steven J.
A1  - Scheffer, Marten
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
T1  - Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
JF  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
N2  - We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
KW  - Earth System trajectories
KW  - climate change
KW  - Anthropocene
KW  - biosphere feedbacks
KW  - tipping elements
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115
SN  - 0027-8424
VL  - 115
IS  - 33
SP  - 8252
EP  - 8259
PB  - National Acad. of Sciences
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Veh, Georg
A1  - Lützow, Natalie
A1  - Kharlamova, Varvara
A1  - Petrakov, Dmitry
A1  - Hugonnet, Romain
A1  - Korup, Oliver
T1  - Trends, breaks, and biases in the frequency of reported glacier lake outburst floods
JF  - Earth's future
N2  - Thousands of glacier lakes have been forming behind natural dams in high mountains following glacier retreat since the early 20th century. Some of these lakes abruptly released pulses of water and sediment with disastrous downstream consequences. Yet it remains unclear whether the reported rise of these glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been fueled by a warming atmosphere and enhanced meltwater production, or simply a growing research effort. Here we estimate trends and biases in GLOF reporting based on the largest global catalog of 1,997 dated glacier-related floods in six major mountain ranges from 1901 to 2017. We find that the positive trend in the number of reported GLOFs has decayed distinctly after a break in the 1970s, coinciding with independently detected trend changes in annual air temperatures and in the annual number of field-based glacier surveys (a proxy of scientific reporting). We observe that GLOF reports and glacier surveys decelerated, while temperature rise accelerated in the past five decades. Enhanced warming alone can thus hardly explain the annual number of reported GLOFs, suggesting that temperature-driven glacier lake formation, growth, and failure are weakly coupled, or that outbursts have been overlooked. Indeed, our analysis emphasizes a distinct geographic and temporal bias in GLOF reporting, and we project that between two to four out of five GLOFs on average might have gone unnoticed in the early to mid-20th century. We recommend that such biases should be considered, or better corrected for, when attributing the frequency of reported GLOFs to atmospheric warming.
KW  - glaciers
KW  - climate change
KW  - hazard
KW  - mountains
KW  - cryosphere
KW  - frequency
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002426
SN  - 2328-4277
VL  - 10
IS  - 3
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Tape, Ken D.
A1  - Jones, Benjamin M.
A1  - Arp, Christopher D.
A1  - Nitze, Ingmar
A1  - Grosse, Guido
T1  - Tundra be dammed
BT  - beaver colonization of the arctic
JF  - Global change biology
N2  - Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293km(2)) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.
KW  - arctic tundra
KW  - beaver
KW  - climate change
KW  - permafrost
KW  - population recovery
KW  - salmon
KW  - shrub expansion
KW  - stream
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14332
SN  - 1354-1013
SN  - 1365-2486
VL  - 24
IS  - 10
SP  - 4478
EP  - 4488
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wolf, Sabina
A1  - Pham, My
A1  - Matthews, Nathanial
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
T1  - Understanding the implementation gap
BT  - policy-makers’ perceptions of ecosystem-based adaptation in Central Vietnam
JF  - Climate & development
N2  - In recent years, nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention in the field of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation as inclusive, no regret approaches. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can mitigate the impacts of climate change, build resilience and tackle environmental degradation thereby supporting the targets set by the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework. Despite these benefits, EbA is still rarely implemented in practice. To better understand the barriers to implementation, this research examines policy-makers' perceptions of EbA, using an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory as an analytical framework. Through semi-structured interviews with policy-makers at regional and provincial level in Central Vietnam, it was found that EbA is generally considered a promising response option, mainly due to its multiple ecosystem-service benefits. The demand for EbA measures was largely driven by the perceived consequences of natural hazards and climate change. Insufficient perceived response efficacy and time-lags in effectiveness for disaster risk reduction were identified as key impediments for implementation. Pilot projects and capacity building on EbA are important means to overcome these perceptual barriers. This paper contributes to bridging the knowledge-gap on political decision-making regarding EbA and can, thereby, promote its mainstreaming into policy plans.
KW  - climate change
KW  - ecosystem-based adaptation
KW  - risk perception
KW  - protection
KW  - motivation theory
KW  - decision making
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1724068
SN  - 1756-5529
SN  - 1756-5537
VL  - 13
IS  - 1
SP  - 81
EP  - 94
PB  - Taylor & Francis LTD
CY  - Abingdon
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Tabares Jimenez, Ximena del Carmen
A1  - Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard
A1  - Dietze, Elisabeth
A1  - Ratzmann, Gregor
A1  - Belz, Lukas
A1  - Vieth-Hillebrand, Andrea
A1  - Dupont, Lydie
A1  - Wilkes, Heinz
A1  - Mapani, Benjamin
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1  - Vegetation state changes in the course of shrub encroachment in an African savanna since about 1850 CE and their potential drivers
JF  - Ecology and evolution
N2  - Shrub encroachment has far-reaching ecological and economic consequences in many ecosystems worldwide. Yet, compositional changes associated with shrub encroachment are often overlooked despite having important effects on ecosystem functioning. We document the compositional change and potential drivers for a northern Namibian Combretum woodland transitioning into a Terminalia shrubland. We use a multiproxy record (pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA, biomarkers, compound-specific carbon (delta C-13) and deuterium (delta D) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (delta(13)Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) from Lake Otjikoto at high taxonomical and temporal resolution. We provide evidence that state changes in semiarid environments may occur on a scale of one century and that transitions between stable states can span around 80 years and are characterized by a unique vegetation composition. We demonstrate that the current grass/woody ratio is exceptional for the last 170 years, as supported by n-alkane distributions and the delta C-13 and delta(13)Corg records. Comparing vegetation records to environmental proxy data and census data, we infer a complex network of global and local drivers of vegetation change. While our delta D record suggests physiological adaptations of woody species to higher atmospheric pCO(2) concentration and drought, our vegetation records reflect the impact of broad-scale logging for the mining industry, and the macrocharcoal record suggests a decrease in fire activity associated with the intensification of farming. Impact of selective grazing is reflected by changes in abundance and taxonomical composition of grasses and by an increase of nonpalatable and trampling-resistant taxa. In addition, grain-size and spore records suggest changes in the erodibility of soils because of reduced grass cover. Synthesis. We conclude that transitions to an encroached savanna state are supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management strategies, which affected the resilience of savanna ecosystems. In addition, feedback mechanisms that reflect the interplay between management legacies and climate change maintain the encroached state.
KW  - climate change
KW  - fossil pollen
KW  - land-use change
KW  - savanna ecology
KW  - sedimentary ancient DNA
KW  - state and transition
KW  - tree-grass interactions
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5955
SN  - 2045-7758
VL  - 10
IS  - 2
SP  - 962
EP  - 979
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  -