TY - JOUR A1 - Kneis, David T1 - A lightweight framework for rapid development of object-based hydrological model engines JF - Environmental modelling & software with environment data news N2 - Computer-based simulation models are frequently used in hydrological research and engineering but also in other fields of environmental sciences. New case studies often require existing model concepts to be adapted. Extensions may be necessary due to the peculiarities of the studied natural system or subtleties of anthropogenic control. In other cases, simplifications must be made in response to scarce data, incomplete knowledge, or restrictions set by the spatio-temporal scale of application. This paper introduces an open-source modeling framework called ECHSE designed to cope with the above-mentioned challenges. It provides a lightweight infrastructure for the rapid development of new, reusable simulation tools and, more importantly, the safe modification of existing formulations. ECHSE-based models treat the simulated system as a collection of interacting objects. Although feedbacks are generally supported, the majority of the objects' interactions is expected to be of the feed-forward type. Therefore, the ECHSE software is particularly useful in the context of hydrological catchment modeling. Conversely, it is unsuitable, e.g., for fully hydrodynamic simulations and groundwater flow modeling. The focus of the paper is put on a comprehensible outline of the ECHSE's fundamental concepts and limitations. For the purpose of illustration, a specific, ECHSE-based solution for hydrological catchment modeling is presented which has undergone testing in a number of river basins. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Modeling framework KW - Genetic model KW - Hydrology KW - ECHSE Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.02.009 SN - 1364-8152 SN - 1873-6726 VL - 68 SP - 110 EP - 121 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Kneis, David T1 - Benchmarking quantitative precipitation estimation by conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling JF - Water resources research N2 - Hydrologic modelers often need to know which method of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is best suited for a particular catchment. Traditionally, QPE methods are verified and benchmarked against independent rain gauge observations. However, the lack of spatial representativeness limits the value of such a procedure. Alternatively, one could drive a hydrological model with different QPE products and choose the one which best reproduces observed runoff. Unfortunately, the calibration of conceptual model parameters might conceal actual differences between the QPEs. To avoid such effects, we abandoned the idea of determining optimum parameter sets for all QPE being compared. Instead, we carry out a large number of runoff simulations, confronting each QPE with a common set of random parameters. By evaluating the goodness-of-fit of all simulations, we obtain information on whether the quality of competing QPE methods is significantly different. This knowledge is inferred exactly at the scale of interest-the catchment scale. We use synthetic data to investigate the ability of this procedure to distinguish a truly superior QPE from an inferior one. We find that the procedure is prone to failure in the case of linear systems. However, we show evidence that in realistic (nonlinear) settings, the method can provide useful results even in the presence of moderate errors in model structure and streamflow observations. In a real-world case study on a small mountainous catchment, we demonstrate the ability of the verification procedure to reveal additional insights as compared to a conventional cross validation approach. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009153 SN - 0043-1397 VL - 47 IS - 23 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Abon, Catherine Cristobal A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Crisologo, Irene A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - David, Carlos Primo Constantino A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - Evaluating the potential of radar-based rainfall estimates for streamflow and flood simulations in the Philippines JF - GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK N2 - This case study evaluates the suitability of radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) for the simulation of streamflow in the Marikina River Basin (MRB), the Philippines. Hourly radar-based QPEs were produced from reflectivity that had been observed by an S-band radar located about 90 km from the MRB. Radar data processing and precipitation estimation were carried out using the open source library wradlib. To assess the added value of the radar-based QPE, we used spatially interpolated rain gauge observations (gauge-only (GO) product) as a benchmark. Rain gauge observations were also used to quantify rainfall estimation errors at the point scale. At the point scale, the radar-based QPE outperformed the GO product in 2012, while for 2013, the performance was similar. For both periods, estimation errors substantially increased from daily to the hourly accumulation intervals. Despite this fact, both rainfall estimation methods allowed for a good representation of observed streamflow when used to force a hydrological simulation model of the MRB. Furthermore, the results of the hydrological simulation were consistent with rainfall verification at the point scale: the radar-based QPE performed better than the GO product in 2012, and equivalently in 2013. Altogether, we could demonstrate that, in terms of streamflow simulation, the radar-based QPE can perform as good as or even better than the GO product - even for a basin such as the MRB which has a comparatively dense rain gauge network. This suggests good prospects for using radar-based QPE to simulate and forecast streamflow in other parts of the Philippines where rain gauge networks are not as dense. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2015.1058862 SN - 1947-5705 SN - 1947-5713 VL - 7 SP - 1390 EP - 1405 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Chatterjee, C. A1 - Singh, R. T1 - Evaluation of TRMM rainfall estimates over a large Indian river basin (Mahanadi) JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS N2 - The paper examines the quality of satellite-abased precipitation estimates for the lower Mahanadi River basin (eastern India). The considered data sets known as 3B42 and 3B42-RT (version 7/7A) are routinely produced by the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) from passive microwave and infrared recordings. While the 3B42-RT data are disseminated in real time, the gauge-aadjusted 3B42 data set is published with a delay of some months. The quality of the two products was assessed in a two-astep procedure. First, the correspondence between the remotely sensed precipitation rates and rain gauge data was evaluated at the subbasin scale. Second, the quality of the rainfall estimates was assessed by analysing their performance in the context of rainfall-arunoff simulation. At sub-abasin level (4000 to 16 000 km(2)) the satellite-abased areal precipitation estimates were found to be moderately correlated with the gauge-abased counterparts (R-2 of 0.64-0.74 for 3B42 and 0.59-0.72 for 3B42-RT). Significant discrepancies between TRMM data and ground observations were identified at high-aintensity levels. The rainfall depth derived from rain gauge data is often not reflected by the TRMM estimates (hit rate < 0.6 for ground-abased intensities > 80 mm day(-1)). At the same time, the remotely sensed rainfall rates frequently exceed the gauge-abased equivalents (false alarm ratios of 0.2-0.6). In addition, the real-atime product 3B42-RT was found to suffer from a spatially consistent negative bias. Since the regionalisation of rain gauge data is potentially associated with a number of errors, the above results are subject to uncertainty. Hence, a validation against independent information, such as stream flow, was essential. In this case study, the outcome of rainfall-arunoff simulation experiments was consistent with the above-mentioned findings. The best fit between observed and simulated stream flow was obtained if rain gauge data were used as model input (Nash-Sutcliffe index of 0.76-0.88 at gauges not affected by reservoir operation). This compares to the values of 0.71-0.78 for the gauge-djusted TRMM 3B42 data and 0.65-0.77 for the 3B42-RT real-atime data. Whether the 3B42-RT data are useful in the context of operational runoff prediction in spite of the identified problems remains a question for further research. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2493-2014 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 18 IS - 7 SP - 2493 EP - 2502 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Janssen, Annette B. G. A1 - Arhonditsis, George B. A1 - Beusen, Arthur A1 - Bolding, Karsten A1 - Bruce, Louise A1 - Bruggeman, Jorn A1 - Couture, Raoul-Marie A1 - Downing, Andrea S. A1 - Elliott, J. Alex A1 - Frassl, Marieke A. A1 - Gal, Gideon A1 - Gerla, Daan J. A1 - Hipsey, Matthew R. A1 - Hu, Fenjuan A1 - Ives, Stephen C. A1 - Janse, Jan H. A1 - Jeppesen, Erik A1 - Joehnk, Klaus D. A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Kong, Xiangzhen A1 - Kuiper, Jan J. A1 - Lehmann, Moritz K. A1 - Lemmen, Carsten A1 - Oezkundakci, Deniz A1 - Petzoldt, Thomas A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Robson, Barbara J. A1 - Sachse, Rene A1 - Schep, Sebastiaan A. A1 - Schmid, Martin A1 - Scholten, Huub A1 - Teurlincx, Sven A1 - Trolle, Dennis A1 - Troost, Tineke A. A1 - Van Dam, Anne A. A1 - Van Gerven, Luuk P. A. A1 - Weijerman, Mariska A1 - Wells, Scott A. A1 - Mooij, Wolf M. T1 - Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective JF - Aquatic ecology : the international forum covering research in freshwater and marine environments N2 - Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary. KW - Water quality KW - Ecology KW - Geochemistry KW - Hydrology KW - Hydraulics KW - Hydrodynamics KW - Physical environment KW - Socio-economics KW - Model availability KW - Standardization KW - Linking Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-015-9544-1 SN - 1386-2588 SN - 1573-5125 VL - 49 IS - 4 SP - 513 EP - 548 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Bogena, Heye R. T1 - Interactions and feedbacks in hydrological change : relevance and possibilities of modelling N2 - The hydrological cycle is a dynamic system by its nature, but sometimes accelerated through anthropogenic activity. A "hydrological change" (i.e. a water cycle that is significantly changing over a longer period of time) can be very different in character, depending on the specific natural conditions and the underlying spatial and temporal scales. Such changes may affect the availability and quality of water as essential pre-requisites for human development and ecosystem stability. Hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may also be affected, what is also vitally important, because of their profound economic and societal impacts. Anthropogenically induced hydrological change can be attributed to three main external causes: first, the Earth's climate is changing significantly and thus directly affecting the terrestrial hydro-systems via the exchange of energy and heat. The second major issue is the land cover and its management that has been modified fundamentally by conversion of land for agriculture, forestry, and other purposes such as industrialisation and urbanisation. Finally, water resources are being used more than ever for human development, especially for agriculture, industrial activities, and navigation. If the regional terrestrial hydrological cycle is changing and counter-measures are desirable, it is from a scientific perspective mandatory to understand the extent and nature of such changes, and, especially, to identify their possible anthropogenic origin. There are, however, fundamental gaps in our knowledge, in particular about the role of feedbacks between individual processes and compartments of the hydrological cycle or the relevance of the interactions with other sub-systems of our planet, such as the atmosphere or the vegetation. This paper mentions several examples of hydrological change and discusses their identification, interaction processes, and feedback mechanisms, along with modelling issues. The possibilities and limitations of modelling are demonstrated by means of two studies: one from the river-lake system on the Middle-Havel River and one from the catchment of the Wahnbach Reservoir. The applied model systems comprise a series of consecutively coupled individual models (so-called one-way-coupling). Model systems that are able reflect feedback effects (two-way- coupling) are still in the development stage. It became clear that the applied model systems were able to reproduce the observed dynamics of the hydrological cycle and of selected matter fluxes. However, one has to be aware that the simulated time periods and scenarios represent rather moderately transient conditions, what is the justification why the one-way-coupling seems to be applicable. Furthermore, it was shown that the modelling uncertainty is considerably large. Nevertheless, this uncertainty can be distinguished from effects of changed internal systems dynamics or from changed boundary conditions, what is a basis for the usability of such model systems for prognostic purposes. Y1 - 2009 SN - 1439-1783 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Creutzfeldt, Benjamin A1 - Gräff, Thomas A1 - Hajnsek, Irena A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Itzerott, Sibylle A1 - Jagdhuber, Thomas A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Lueck, Erika A1 - Reusser, Dominik A1 - Zehe, Erwin T1 - Potentials and constraints of different types of soil moisture observations for flood simulations in headwater catchments JF - Natural hazards : journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards N2 - Flood generation in mountainous headwater catchments is governed by rainfall intensities, by the spatial distribution of rainfall and by the state of the catchment prior to the rainfall, e. g. by the spatial pattern of the soil moisture, groundwater conditions and possibly snow. The work presented here explores the limits and potentials of measuring soil moisture with different methods and in different scales and their potential use for flood simulation. These measurements were obtained in 2007 and 2008 within a comprehensive multi-scale experiment in the Weisseritz headwater catchment in the Ore-Mountains, Germany. The following technologies have been applied jointly thermogravimetric method, frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) sensors, spatial time domain reflectometry (STDR) cluster, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), airborne polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (polarimetric SAR) and advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) based on the satellite Envisat. We present exemplary soil measurement results, with spatial scales ranging from point scale, via hillslope and field scale, to the catchment scale. Only the spatial TDR cluster was able to record continuous data. The other methods are limited to the date of over-flights (airplane and satellite) or measurement campaigns on the ground. For possible use in flood simulation, the observation of soil moisture at multiple scales has to be combined with suitable hydrological modelling, using the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH. Therefore, several simulation experiments have been conducted in order to test both the usability of the recorded soil moisture data and the suitability of a distributed hydrological model to make use of this information. The measurement results show that airborne-based and satellite-based systems in particular provide information on the near-surface spatial distribution. However, there are still a variety of limitations, such as the need for parallel ground measurements (Envisat ASAR), uncertainties in polarimetric decomposition techniques (polarimetric SAR), very limited information from remote sensing methods about vegetated surfaces and the non-availability of continuous measurements. The model experiments showed the importance of soil moisture as an initial condition for physically based flood modelling. However, the observed moisture data reflect the surface or near-surface soil moisture only. Hence, only saturated overland flow might be related to these data. Other flood generation processes influenced by catchment wetness in the subsurface such as subsurface storm flow or quick groundwater drainage cannot be assessed by these data. One has to acknowledge that, in spite of innovative measuring techniques on all spatial scales, soil moisture data for entire vegetated catchments are still today not operationally available. Therefore, observations of soil moisture should primarily be used to improve the quality of continuous, distributed hydrological catchment models that simulate the spatial distribution of moisture internally. Thus, when and where soil moisture data are available, they should be compared with their simulated equivalents in order to improve the parameter estimates and possibly the structure of the hydrological model. KW - Soil moisture KW - Remote sensing KW - Hydrological modelling KW - Flood forecasting KW - Soil moisture measurement comparison Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9874-9 SN - 0921-030X SN - 1573-0840 VL - 60 IS - 3 SP - 879 EP - 914 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Costa, Alexandre Cunha A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Kneis, David T1 - Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach JF - Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques N2 - Hydrological models are commonly used to perform real-time runoff forecasting for flood warning. Their application requires catchment characteristics and precipitation series that are not always available. An alternative approach is nonparametric modelling based only on runoff series. However, the following questions arise: Can nonparametric models show reliable forecasting? Can they perform as reliably as hydrological models? We performed probabilistic forecasting one, two and three hours ahead for a runoff series, with the aim of ascribing a probability density function to predicted discharge using time series analysis based on stochastic dynamics theory. The derived dynamic terms were compared to a hydrological model, LARSIM. Our procedure was able to forecast within 95% confidence interval 1-, 2- and 3-h ahead discharge probability functions with about 1.40 m(3)/s of range and relative errors (%) in the range [-30; 30]. The LARSIM model and the best nonparametric approaches gave similar results, but the range of relative errors was larger for the nonparametric approaches. KW - streamflow probabilistic forecasting KW - time series analysis KW - stochastic dynamical systems KW - parametric and nonparametric comparison Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.637043 SN - 0262-6667 VL - 57 IS - 1 SP - 10 EP - 25 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Abon, Catherine Cristobal A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - Verification of short-term runoff forecasts for a small Philippine basin (Marikina) T2 - Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques N2 - Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380km(2)). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a no-forecast scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1183773 SN - 0262-6667 SN - 2150-3435 VL - 62 SP - 205 EP - 216 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER -