TY - GEN A1 - Boers, Niklas A1 - Goswami, Bedartha A1 - Ghil, Michael T1 - A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 641 KW - Greenland ice-core KW - late-glacial chronology KW - high-resolution record KW - Lake Suigetsu KW - proxy records KW - age models KW - climate KW - events KW - Japan KW - period Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418030 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 641 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rolinski, Susanne A1 - Rammig, Anja A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - von Bloh, Werner A1 - van Oijen, M. A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten T1 - A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes BT - The ecosystem perspective T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487) N2 - Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 487 KW - global vegetation model KW - climate extremes KW - fire emissions KW - drought KW - forest KW - productivity KW - reduction KW - events KW - assimilation KW - uncertainty Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407999 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 487 SP - 1813 EP - 1831 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Schönberger, Christine A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL) T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 555 KW - climate KW - Europe KW - projections KW - events Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411915 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 555 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rottler, Erwin A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016 BT - Impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1412 KW - empirical mode decomposition KW - atmospheric blocking KW - heavy precipitation KW - streamflow trends KW - climate-change KW - rhine basin KW - time-series KW - events KW - Switzerland KW - variability Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517763 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 4 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan A1 - Maute, Astrid A1 - Pedatella, Nick A1 - Yamazaki, Yosuke A1 - Lühr, Hermann A1 - Stolle, Claudia T1 - On the variability of the semidiurnal solar and lunar tides of the equatorial electrojet during sudden stratospheric warmings T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The variabilities of the semidiurnal solar and lunar tides of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) are investigated during the 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in this study. For this purpose, ground-magnetometer recordings at the equatorial observatories in Huancayo and Fúquene are utilized. Results show a major enhancement in the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide in each of the four warming events. The EEJ semidiurnal solar tidal amplitude shows an amplification prior to the onset of warmings, a reduction during the deceleration of the zonal mean zonal wind at 60∘ N and 10 hPa, and a second enhancement a few days after the peak reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind during all four SSWs. Results also reveal that the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide becomes comparable or even greater than the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal solar tide during all these warming events. The present study also compares the EEJ semidiurnal solar and lunar tidal changes with the variability of the migrating semidiurnal solar (SW2) and lunar (M2) tides in neutral temperature and zonal wind obtained from numerical simulations at E-region heights. A better agreement between the enhancements of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide and the M2 tide is found in comparison with the enhancements of the EEJ semidiurnal solar tide and the SW2 tide in both the neutral temperature and zonal wind at the E-region altitudes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1075 KW - middle atmosphere KW - latitude ionosphere KW - temperature changes KW - lower thermosphere KW - magnetic field KW - TIME-GCM KW - winds KW - circulation KW - events KW - winter Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468389 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1075 SP - 1545 EP - 1562 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Maheswaran, Rathinasamy A1 - Öztürk, Ugur A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Optimal design of hydrometric station networks based on complex network analysis T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Hydrometric networks play a vital role in providing information for decision-making in water resource management. They should be set up optimally to provide as much information as possible that is as accurate as possible and, at the same time, be cost-effective. Although the design of hydrometric networks is a well-identified problem in hydrometeorology and has received considerable attention, there is still scope for further advancement. In this study, we use complex network analysis, defined as a collection of nodes interconnected by links, to propose a new measure that identifies critical nodes of station networks. The approach can support the design and redesign of hydrometric station networks. The science of complex networks is a relatively young field and has gained significant momentum over the last few years in different areas such as brain networks, social networks, technological networks, or climate networks. The identification of influential nodes in complex networks is an important field of research. We propose a new node-ranking measure – the weighted degree–betweenness (WDB) measure – to evaluate the importance of nodes in a network. It is compared to previously proposed measures used on synthetic sample networks and then applied to a real-world rain gauge network comprising 1229 stations across Germany to demonstrate its applicability. The proposed measure is evaluated using the decline rate of the network efficiency and the kriging error. The results suggest that WDB effectively quantifies the importance of rain gauges, although the benefits of the method need to be investigated in more detail. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 951 KW - identifying influential nodes KW - climate networks KW - rainfall KW - streamflow KW - synchronization KW - precipitation KW - classification KW - events Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-471006 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 951 ER - TY - BOOK ED - Baumgraß, Anne ED - Meyer, Andreas ED - Weske, Mathias T1 - Proceedings of the Master seminar on event processing systems for business process management systems T1 - Berichte des Masterseminars über Systeme zur Ereignisverarbeitung im Bereich des Geschäftsprozessmanagements N2 - Traditionally, business process management systems only execute and monitor business process instances based on events that originate from the process engine itself or from connected client applications. However, environmental events may also influence business process execution. Recent research shows how the technological improvements in both areas, business process management and complex event processing, can be combined and harmonized. The series of technical reports included in this collection provides insights in that combination with respect to technical feasibility and improvements based on real-world use cases originating from the EU-funded GET Service project – a project targeting transport optimization and green-house gas reduction in the logistics domain. Each report is complemented by a working prototype. This collection introduces six use cases from the logistics domain. Multiple transports – each being a single process instance – may be affected by the same events at the same point in time because of (partly) using the same transportation route, transportation vehicle or transportation mode (e.g. containers from multiple process instances on the same ship) such that these instances can be (partly) treated as batch. Thus, the first use case shows the influence of events to process instances processed in a batch. The case of sharing the entire route may be, for instance, due to origin from the same business process (e.g. transport three containers, where each is treated as single process instance because of being transported on three trucks) resulting in multi-instance process executions. The second use case shows how to handle monitoring and progress calculation in this context. Crucial to transportation processes are frequent changes of deadlines. The third use case shows how to deal with such frequent process changes in terms of propagating the changes along and beyond the process scope to identify probable deadline violations. While monitoring transport processes, disruptions may be detected which introduce some delay. Use case four shows how to propagate such delay in a non-linear fashion along the process instance to predict the end time of the instance. Non-linearity is crucial in logistics because of buffer times and missed connection on intermodal transports (a one-hour delay may result in a missed ship which is not going every hour). Finally, use cases five and six show the utilization of location-based process monitoring. Use case five enriches transport processes with real-time route and traffic event information to improve monitoring and planning capabilities. Use case six shows the inclusion of spatio-temporal events on the example of unexpected weather events. N2 - Traditionell basiert die Ausführung und Überwachung von Prozessinstanzen durch Business Process Management Systeme auf Ereignissen, die von der Prozessengine selbst oder aus damit verbundenen Applikationen stammen. Allerdings können weitere Einflüsse aus der Umgebung die Ausführung ebenfalls beeinflussen. Hierzu zeigen aktuelle Forschungsarbeiten wie Geschäftsprozessmanagement und Ereignisverarbeitung zusammengebracht werden können. Die technischen Reports als Teil dieses Sammelbandes zeigen die technische Machbarkeit dieser Kombination und daraus resultierende Verbesserungen basierend auf echten Anwendungsfällen aus dem EU-geförderten GET Service Forschungsprojekt, ein Projekt mit dem Ziel Transportprozesse zu optimieren und CO2-Emissionen zu reduzieren. Jeder Anwendungsfall wird mit einem lauffähigen Prototyp evaluiert. Dieser Sammelband umfasst sechs Anwendungsfälle aus dem Bereich der Logistik. Mehrere Transporte – jeder hiervon ist eine eigene Prozessinstanz – können durch die gleichen Ereignisse beeinflusst werden, wenn sie (teilweise) die gleiche Transportroute, Transportvehikel oder Transportmodalität verwenden, so dass diese Instanzen (teilweise) kombiniert ausgeführt werden können – als Batch (z.B. mehrere Container auf dem gleichen Schiff). Daher zeigt der erste Anwendungsfall den Einfluss von Ereignissen auf Prozessinstanzen, die als Batch ausgeführt werden. Eine Übereinstimmung der Route kann auch auf die Korrelation zum gleichen Geschäftsprozess zurückgeführt werden (z.B. Transport von drei Containern auf drei LKWs). Dies führt zu Multi-Instanz-Ausführungen. Der zweite Anwendungsfall zeigt wie Transportüberwachung und Prozessfortschrittsberechnung in diesem Kontext aussehen können. In Transportprozessen treten oftmals kurzfristige Änderungen von Deadlines auf. Anwendungsfall drei zeigt wie die Überwachung in diesen Fällen verbessert werden kann. Die Deadline-Änderungen werden entlang der Prozesskette und über den Kontext eines Prozesses hinausgetragen, um etwaige Deadline-Verstöße zu identifizieren. Während der Überwachung von Transportprozessen lassen sich Störungen identifizieren, welche Verzögerungen nach sich ziehen können. Anwendungsfall vier zeigt wie solche Verzögerungen nichtlinear über die Transportkette propagiert werden können, um den Abschluss der Prozessinstanz vorherzusagen. Aufgrund von Pufferzeiten und dem Verpassen eines Anschlusses auf intermodalen Transporten in der Logistik ist hierbei die nichtlineare Verbreitung der Verzögerung besonders wichtig. Eine Verzögerung von einer Stunde kann zum Verpassen eines Schiffes führen, welches wiederum nicht stündlich die benötigte Strecke zurücklegt. Abschließend zeigen die Anwendungsfälle fünf und sechs die Verwendung von ortsbasierter Prozessüberwachung. Anwendungsfall fünf reichert den Transportprozess mit Echtzeitinformationen über Routen und Verkehr an, um Überwachungs- und Planungsaktivitäten zu verbessern. Anwendungsfall sechs zeigt die Einbindung von Ereignissen auf räumlich-zeitlicher Ebene am Beispiel von unerwarteten Wetterereignissen. T3 - Technische Berichte des Hasso-Plattner-Instituts für Digital Engineering an der Universität Potsdam - 102 KW - BPM KW - CEP KW - monitoring KW - business processes KW - events KW - batch processing KW - multi-instances KW - deadline propagation KW - delay propagation KW - location-based KW - BPM KW - CEP KW - Überwachung KW - Geschäftsprozesse KW - Ereignisse KW - Batchprozesse KW - Multi-Instanzen KW - Deadline-Verbreitung KW - Verzögerungs-Verbreitung KW - orts-basiert Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-83819 SN - 978-3-86956-347-3 SN - 1613-5652 SN - 2191-1665 IS - 102 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER -