TY - JOUR A1 - Stojkoski, Viktor A1 - Sandev, Trifce A1 - Basnarkov, Lasko A1 - Kocarev, Ljupco A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Generalised geometric Brownian motion BT - theory and applications to option pricing JF - Entropy N2 - Classical option pricing schemes assume that the value of a financial asset follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). However, a growing body of studies suggest that a simple GBM trajectory is not an adequate representation for asset dynamics, due to irregularities found when comparing its properties with empirical distributions. As a solution, we investigate a generalisation of GBM where the introduction of a memory kernel critically determines the behaviour of the stochastic process. We find the general expressions for the moments, log-moments, and the expectation of the periodic log returns, and then obtain the corresponding probability density functions using the subordination approach. Particularly, we consider subdiffusive GBM (sGBM), tempered sGBM, a mix of GBM and sGBM, and a mix of sGBMs. We utilise the resulting generalised GBM (gGBM) in order to examine the empirical performance of a selected group of kernels in the pricing of European call options. Our results indicate that the performance of a kernel ultimately depends on the maturity of the option and its moneyness. KW - geometric Brownian motion KW - Fokker– Planck equation KW - Black– Scholes model KW - option pricing Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/e22121432 SN - 1099-4300 VL - 22 IS - 12 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stojkoski, Viktor A1 - Jolakoski, Petar A1 - Pal, Arnab A1 - Sandev, Trifce A1 - Kocarev, Ljupco A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Income inequality and mobility in geometric Brownian motion with stochastic resetting: theoretical results and empirical evidence of non-ergodicity JF - Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, physical and engineering sciences N2 - We explore the role of non-ergodicity in the relationship between income inequality, the extent of concentration in the income distribution, and income mobility, the feasibility of an individual to change their position in the income rankings. For this purpose, we use the properties of an established model for income growth that includes 'resetting' as a stabilizing force to ensure stationary dynamics. We find that the dynamics of inequality is regime-dependent: it may range from a strictly non-ergodic state where this phenomenon has an increasing trend, up to a stable regime where inequality is steady and the system efficiently mimics ergodicity. Mobility measures, conversely, are always stable over time, but suggest that economies become less mobile in non-ergodic regimes. By fitting the model to empirical data for the income share of the top earners in the USA, we provide evidence that the income dynamics in this country is consistently in a regime in which non-ergodicity characterizes inequality and immobility. Our results can serve as a simple rationale for the observed real-world income dynamics and as such aid in addressing non-ergodicity in various empirical settings across the globe.This article is part of the theme issue 'Kinetic exchange models of societies and economies'. KW - income inequality KW - income mobility KW - geometric Brownian motion KW - non-ergodicity KW - stochastic resetting Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0157 SN - 1364-503X SN - 1471-2962 VL - 380 IS - 2224 PB - Royal Society CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cherstvy, Andrey G. A1 - Vinod, Deepak A1 - Aghion, Erez A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei V. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series JF - New journal of physics N2 - We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black–Scholes–Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics. KW - time averaging KW - diffusion KW - geometric Brownian motion KW - financial time series Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/aa7199 SN - 1367-2630 VL - 19 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - IOP CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cherstvy, Andrey G. A1 - Vinod, Deepak A1 - Aghion, Erez A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei V. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series JF - New journal of physics : the open-access journal for physics N2 - We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics. KW - time averaging KW - diffusion KW - geometric Brownian motion KW - financial time series Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/aa7199 SN - 1367-2630 VL - 19 SP - 135 EP - 147 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ritschel, Stefan A1 - Cherstvy, Andrey G. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Universality of delay-time averages for financial time series BT - analytical results, computer simulations, and analysis of historical stock-market prices JF - Journal of physics. Complexity N2 - We analyze historical data of stock-market prices for multiple financial indices using the concept of delay-time averaging for the financial time series (FTS). The region of validity of our recent theoretical predictions [Cherstvy A G et al 2017 New J. Phys. 19 063045] for the standard and delayed time-averaged mean-squared 'displacements' (TAMSDs) of the historical FTS is extended to all lag times. As the first novel element, we perform extensive computer simulations of the stochastic differential equation describing geometric Brownian motion (GBM) which demonstrate a quantitative agreement with the analytical long-term price-evolution predictions in terms of the delayed TAMSD (for all stock-market indices in crisis-free times). Secondly, we present a robust procedure of determination of the model parameters of GBM via fitting the features of the price-evolution dynamics in the FTS for stocks and cryptocurrencies. The employed concept of single-trajectory-based time averaging can serve as a predictive tool (proxy) for a mathematically based assessment and rationalization of probabilistic trends in the evolution of stock-market prices. KW - econophysics KW - geometric Brownian motion KW - time-series analysis Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ac2220 SN - 2632-072X VL - 2 IS - 4 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER -