TY  - JOUR
A1  - Radchuk, Viktoriia
A1  - Johst, Karin
A1  - Gröneveld, Juergen
A1  - Grimm, Volker
A1  - Schtickzelle, Nicolas
T1  - Behind the scenes of population viability modeling predicting butterfly metapopulation dynamics under climate change
JF  - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog
N2  - Studies explaining the choice of model structure for population viability analysis (PVA) are rare and no such study exists for butterfly species, a focal group for conservation. Here, we describe in detail the development of a model to predict population viability of a glacial relict butterfly species, Boloria eunomia, under climate change. We compared four alternative formulations of an individual-based model, differing in the environmental factors acting on the survival of immature life stages: temperature (only temperature impact), weather (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine), temperature and parasitism, and weather and parasitism. Following pattern-oriented modeling, four observed patterns were used to contrast these models: one qualitative (response of population size to habitat parameters) and three quantitative ones describing population dynamics during eight years (mean and variability of population size, and magnitude of the temporal autocorrelation in yearly population growth rates). The four model formulations were not equally able to depict population dynamics under current environmental conditions; the model including only temperature was selected as the most parsimonious model sufficiently well reproducing the empirical patterns. We used all four model formulations to test a range of climate change scenarios that were characterized by changes in both mean and variability of the weather variables. All models predicted adverse effects of climate change and resulted in the same ranking of mean climate change scenarios. However, models differed in their absolute values of population viability measures, underlining the need to explicitly choose the most appropriate model formulation and avoid arbitrary usage of environmental drivers in a model. We conclude that further applications of pattern-oriented modeling to butterfly and other species are likely to help in identifying the key factors impacting the viability of certain taxa, which, ultimately, will aid and speed up informed management decisions for endangered species under climate change.
KW  - Individual-based model
KW  - Population viability analysis
KW  - Glacial relict species
KW  - Life cycle
KW  - Boloria eunomia
KW  - Pattern-oriented modeling
KW  - Model structure
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.03.014
SN  - 0304-3800
VL  - 259
IS  - 2
SP  - 62
EP  - 73
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Franz, Kamila W.
A1  - Romanowski, Jerzy
A1  - Johst, Karin
A1  - Grimm, Volker
T1  - Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland
JF  - PLoS one
N2  - When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0064852
SN  - 1932-6203
VL  - 8
IS  - 5
PB  - PLoS
CY  - San Fransisco
ER  -