TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian T1 - The Maximum Earthquake Magnitude in a Time Horizon: Theory and Case Studies JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120013 SN - 0037-1106 VL - 103 IS - 2A SP - 860 EP - 875 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes - maybe in 200 years JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - I study the ability to estimate the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes. While power-law scaling for small earthquakes is accepted by support of data, the tail remains speculative. In a recent study, Bell et al. (2013) claim that the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes converges to a tapered Pareto distribution. I show that this finding results from data fitting errors, namely from the biased maximum likelihood estimation of the corner magnitude theta in strongly undersampled models. In particular, the estimation of theta depends solely on the few largest events in the catalog. Taking this into account, I compare various state-of-the-art models for the global frequency-magnitude distribution. After discarding undersampled models, the remaining ones, including the unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution, perform all equally well and are, therefore, indistinguishable. Convergence to a specific distribution, if it ever takes place, requires about 200 years homogeneous recording of global seismicity, at least. KW - statistical seismology Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50779 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 40 IS - 15 SP - 3873 EP - 3877 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zou, Yasheng T1 - Basel III and Its Implementation in China’s Banking Industry JF - Protokollband 2013 N2 - 1. Introduction 2. Analysis of implementation of the Basel III in China 2.1 Implementation of capital adequacy rules 2.2 Implementation of leverage ratio rules 2.3 Implementation of liquidity management rules 3. Suggestions for further development of China’s banking industry 3.1 Promoting capital structure adjustment and broadening capital supplement channels 3.2 Transforming business models and developing intermediary and off-balance business 3.3 Increasing the intensity of risk management and refining its standards Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-68673 SP - 43 EP - 54 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zolotov, Oleg V. A1 - Namgaladze, Alexander A. A1 - Prokhorov, Boris E. T1 - Specific features of ionospheric total electron content variations in the periods of preparation of the earthquakes on March 11, 2011 (Japan) and October 23, 2011 (Turkey) JF - Russian journal of physical chemistry : B, Focus on physics N2 - The main morphological features of variations of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere before the earthquakes on March 11, 2011 (Japan) and October 23, 2011 (Turkey) are examined. The revealed features are compared to those of ionospheric TEC disturbances observed prior to several other large seismic events, as well as to those included in a list of the most frequently observed ionospheric TEC disturbances interpreted as possible ionospheric precursors of earthquakes. It is shown that, in the periods of preparation of the earthquakes under consideration, on March 8-11 and October 20-23, abnormal ionospheric TEC disturbances were observed as long-lived structures in a near-epicentral region and in the region magnetically conjugated to it. KW - total electron content KW - earthquakes KW - ionospheric precursors of earthquakes KW - ionosphere Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1134/S1990793113050266 SN - 1990-7931 SN - 1990-7923 VL - 7 IS - 5 SP - 599 EP - 605 PB - Pleiades Publ. CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zobir, Soraya Hadj A1 - Oberhänsli, Roland T1 - The sidi Mohamed peridotites (Edough Massif, NE Algeria) - evidence for an upper mantle origin JF - Journal of earth system science N2 - The Hercynian Edough massif is the easternmost crystalline massif of the Algerian coast. It consists of two tectonically superposed units composed of micaschists, gneisses, and peridotite. This study concentrates on the small and isolated Sidi Mohamed peridotite outcrop area (0.03 km(2)). The Sidi Mohamed peridotite is composed mainly of harzburgites (Mg-rich olivine and orthopyroxene as major minerals). The Ni (2051-2920 ppm), Cr (2368-5514 ppm) and MgO (similar to 28-35 wt.%) whole-rock composition and the relative depletion in Nb make these harzburgites comparable to depleted peridotites related to a subduction zone. We suggest that the Sidi Mohamed ultramafic body was derived directly from the upper mantle and tectonically incorporated into the gneiss units of the Edough metamorphic core complex in a subduction environment. KW - Peridotites KW - upper mantle KW - Edough KW - Algeria Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-013-0358-z SN - 0253-4126 SN - 0973-774X VL - 122 IS - 6 SP - 1455 EP - 1465 PB - Indian Academy of Science CY - Bangalore ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, B. A1 - Zimmermann, Alexander A1 - Scheckenbach, H. L. A1 - Schmid, T. A1 - Hall, Jefferson. S. A1 - van Breugel, Michiel T1 - Changes in rainfall interception along a secondary forest succession gradient in lowland Panama JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS N2 - Secondary forests are rapidly expanding in tropical regions. Yet, despite the importance of understanding the hydrological consequences of land-cover dynamics, the relationship between forest succession and canopy interception is poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is unfortunate because rainfall interception plays an important role in regional water cycles and needs to be quantified for many modeling purposes. To help close this knowledge gap, we designed a throughfall monitoring study along a secondary succession gradient in a tropical forest region of Panama. The investigated gradient comprised 20 forest patches 3 to 130 yr old. We sampled each patch with a minimum of 20 funnel-type throughfall collectors over a continuous 2month period that had nearly 900 mm of rain. During the same period, we acquired forest inventory data and derived several forest structural attributes. We then applied simple and multiple regression models (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) and identified those vegetation parameters that had the strongest influence on the variation of canopy interception. Our analyses yielded three main findings. First, canopy interception changed rapidly during forest succession. After only a decade, throughfall volumes approached levels that are typical for mature forests. Second, a parsimonious (simple linear regression) model based on the ratio of the basal area of small stems to the total basal area outperformed more complex multivariate models (BMA approach). Third, based on complementary forest inventory data, we show that the influence of young secondary forests on interception in realworld fragmented landscapes might be detectable only in regions with a substantial fraction of young forests. Our re-sults suggest that where entire catchments undergo forest regrowth, initial stages of succession may be associated with a substantial decrease of streamflow generation. Our results further highlight the need to study hydrological processes in all forest succession stages, including early ones. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4659-2013 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 17 IS - 11 SP - 4659 EP - 4670 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Andreas A1 - Bäumler, Jelena T1 - Navigating through narrow jurisdictional straits : the Philippines - PRC South China Sea Dispute and UNCLOS Y1 - 2013 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Andreas T1 - Bringing Kosovo within the reach of the european convention on human rights : disentangling the convention and the status-issue Y1 - 2013 SN - 978-3-16-152628-2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Andreas T1 - The international court of justice and state succession to treaties: avoiding principled answers to questions of principle Y1 - 2013 SN - 978-0-19-965321-8 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Andreas T1 - Human rights treaty bodies and the jurisdiction of the international court of justice Y1 - 2013 SN - 1569-1853 ER -