TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Tilmann, Frederik A1 - Woith, Heiko A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; Müller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078 JF - Ethology N2 - Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power. KW - animal behavior KW - earthquake precursor KW - error diagram KW - prediction KW - randomness KW - statistics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/eth.13105 SN - 0179-1613 SN - 1439-0310 VL - 127 IS - 3 SP - 302 EP - 306 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Reply to “Comment on ‘The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production‐Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands’ by Gert Zöller and Matthias Holschneider” by Mathias Raschke T2 - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170131 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 108 IS - 2 SP - 1029 EP - 1030 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Induced seismicity: What is the size of the largest expected earthquake? JF - The bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - The injection of fluids is a well-known origin for the triggering of earthquake sequences. The growing number of projects related to enhanced geothermal systems, fracking, and others has led to the question, which maximum earthquake magnitude can be expected as a consequence of fluid injection? This question is addressed from the perspective of statistical analysis. Using basic empirical laws of earthquake statistics, we estimate the magnitude M-T of the maximum expected earthquake in a predefined future time window T-f. A case study of the fluid injection site at Paradox Valley, Colorado, demonstrates that the magnitude m 4.3 of the largest observed earthquake on 27 May 2000 lies very well within the expectation from past seismicity without adjusting any parameters. Vice versa, for a given maximum tolerable earthquake at an injection site, we can constrain the corresponding amount of injected fluids that must not be exceeded within predefined confidence bounds. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140195 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 104 IS - 6 SP - 3153 EP - 3158 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production-Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production-induced earthquakes, because no earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012M(w) 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state-of-the-art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). Second, we calculate the maximum expected magnitude M-T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas-production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m(max) 4.4, whereas M-T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160220 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 106 SP - 2917 EP - 2921 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - The Earthquake History in a Fault Zone Tells Us Almost Nothing about m(max) JF - Seismological research letters N2 - In the present study, we summarize and evaluate the endeavors from recent years to estimate the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) from observed data. In particular, we use basic and physically motivated assumptions to identify best cases and worst cases in terms of lowest and highest degree of uncertainty of m(max). In a general framework, we demonstrate that earthquake data and earthquake proxy data recorded in a fault zone provide almost no information about m(max) unless reliable and homogeneous data of a long time interval, including several earthquakes with magnitude close to m(max), are available. Even if detailed earthquake information from some centuries including historic and paleoearthquakes are given, only very few, namely the largest events, will contribute at all to the estimation of m(max), and this results in unacceptably high uncertainties. As a consequence, estimators of m(max) in a fault zone, which are based solely on earthquake-related information from this region, have to be dismissed. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0220150176 SN - 0895-0695 SN - 1938-2057 VL - 87 SP - 132 EP - 137 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian T1 - The Maximum Earthquake Magnitude in a Time Horizon: Theory and Case Studies JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120013 SN - 0037-1106 VL - 103 IS - 2A SP - 860 EP - 875 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Ullah, Shahid A1 - Bindi, Dino A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Mikhailova, Natalya T1 - The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Central Asia BT - statistical inference from an earthquake catalogue with uncertain magnitudes JF - Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions N2 - The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue. Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-86239-745-3 SN - 978-1-86239-964-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1144/SP432.3 SN - 0305-8719 VL - 432 SP - 29 EP - 40 PB - The Geological Society CY - London ER - TY - BOOK ED - Denecke, Klaus-Dieter T1 - General algebra and applications T3 - Research and exposition in mathematics Y1 - 1993 SN - 3-88538-220-2 VL - 20 PB - Heldermann CY - Berlin ER - TY - BOOK ED - Denecke, Klaus-Dieter T1 - General algebra and applications in discrete mathematics : proceedings of "Conference on General Algebra and Discrete Mathematics" T3 - Berichte aus der Mathematik Y1 - 1997 SN - 3-8265-2431-4 PB - Shaker CY - Aachen ER - TY - BOOK ED - Denecke, Klaus-Dieter ED - Vogel, Hans-Jürgen T1 - General algebra and applications : proceedings of the 59th Workshop on General Algebra ; 15th Conference for Young Algebraists, Potsdam 2000 T3 - Berichte aus der Mathematik Y1 - 2000 SN - 3-8265-7983-6 PB - Shaker CY - Aachen ER -