TY - JOUR A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Francke, Till T1 - An effective strategy for combining variance- and distribution-based global sensitivity analysis JF - Environmental modelling & software with environment data news N2 - We present a new strategy for performing global sensitivity analysis capable to estimate main and interaction effects from a generic sampling design. The new strategy is based on a meaningful combination of varianceand distribution-based approaches. The strategy is tested on four analytic functions and on a hydrological model. Results show that the analysis is consistent with the state-of-the-art Saltelli/Jansen formula but to better quantify the interaction effect between the input factors when the output distribution is skewed. Moreover, the estimation of the sensitivity indices is much more robust requiring a smaller number of simulations runs. Specific settings and alternative methods that can be integrated in the new strategy are also discussed. Overall, the strategy is considered as a new simple and effective tool for performing global sensitivity analysis that can be easily integrated in any environmental modelling framework. KW - global sensitivity analysis KW - variance KW - distribution KW - generic sampling KW - design Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104851 SN - 1364-8152 SN - 1873-6726 VL - 134 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Ortuani, B. A1 - Facchi, A. A1 - Gandolfi, C. T1 - The role of vegetation and soil properties on the spatio-temporal variability of the surface soil moisture in a maize-cropped field JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - Soil moisture dynamics are affected by complex interactions among several factors. Understanding the relative importance of these factors is still an important challenge in the study of water fluxes and solute transport in unsaturated media. In this study, the spatio-temporal variability of surface soil moisture was investigated in a 10 ha flat cropped field located in northern Italy. Soil moisture was measured on a regular 50 x 50 m grid on seven dates during the growing season. For each measurement campaign, the spatial variability of the soil moisture was compared with the spatial variability of the soil texture and crop properties. In particular, to better understand the role of the vegetation, the spatio-temporal variability of two different parameters - leaf area index and crop height - was monitored on eight dates at different crop development stages. Statistical and geostatistical analysis was then applied to explore the interactions between these variables. In agreement with other studies, the results show that the soil moisture variability changes according to the average value within the field, with the standard deviation reaching a maximum value under intermediate mean soil moisture conditions and the coefficient of variation decreasing exponentially with increasing mean soil moisture. The controls of soil moisture variability change according to the average soil moisture within the field. Under wet conditions, the spatial distribution of the soil moisture reflects the variability of the soil texture. Under dry conditions, the spatial distribution of the soil moisture is affected mostly by the spatial variability of the vegetation. The interaction between these two factors is more important under intermediate soil moisture conditions. These results confirm the importance of considering the average soil moisture conditions within a field when investigating the controls affecting the spatial variability of soil moisture. This study highlights the importance of considering the spatio-temporal variability of the vegetation in investigating soil moisture dynamics, especially under intermediate and dry soil moisture conditions. The results of this study have important implications in different hydrological applications, such as for sampling design, ranking stability application, indirect measurements of soil properties and model parameterisation. KW - Soil moisture KW - Spatio-temporal variability KW - Controlling factors KW - Principal component analysis KW - Geostatistics KW - Agricultural field Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.007 SN - 0022-1694 SN - 1879-2707 VL - 489 IS - 7 SP - 148 EP - 159 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Oswald, Sascha T1 - A scaling approach for the assessment of biomass changes and rainfall interception using cosmic-ray neutron sensing JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - Cosmic-Ray neutron sensing (CRS) is a unique approach to measure soil moisture at field scale filling the gap of current methodologies. However, CRS signal is affected by all the hydrogen pools on the land surface and understanding their relative importance plays an important role for the application of the method e.g., validation of remote sensing products and data assimilation. In this study, a soil moisture scaling approach is proposed to estimate directly the correct CRS soil moisture based on the soil moisture profile measured at least in one position within the field. The approach has the advantage to avoid the need to introduce one correction for each hydrogen contribution and to estimate indirectly all the related time-varying hydrogen pools. Based on the data collected in three crop seasons, the scaling approach shows its ability to identify and to quantify the seasonal biomass water equivalent. Additionally, the analysis conducted at sub-daily time resolution is able to quantify the daily vertical redistribution of the water biomass and the rainfall interception, showing promising applications of the CRS method also for these types of measurements. Overall, the study underlines how not only soil moisture but all the specific hydrological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum should be considered for a proper evaluation of the CRS signal. For this scope, the scaling approach reveals to be a simple and pragmatic analysis that can be easily extended to other experimental sites. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Cosmic-ray KW - Soil moisture KW - Scaling KW - Interception KW - Biomass water KW - Agricultural field Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.053 SN - 0022-1694 SN - 1879-2707 VL - 525 SP - 264 EP - 276 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Scheiffele, Lena A1 - Schrön, Martin A1 - Ingwersen, Joachim A1 - Oswald, Sascha T1 - Uncertainty, sensitivity and improvements in soil moisture estimation with cosmic-ray neutron sensing JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a promising proximal soil sensing technique to estimate soil moisture at intermediate scale and high temporal resolution. However, the signal shows complex and non-unique response to all hydrogen pools near the land surface, providing some challenges for soil moisture estimation in practical applications. Aims of the study were 1) to assess the uncertainty of CRNS as a stand-alone approach to estimate volumetric soil moisture in cropped field 2) to identify the causes of this uncertainty 3) and possible improvements. Two experimental sites in Germany were equipped with a CRNS probe and point-scale soil moisture network. Additional monitoring activities were conducted during the crop growing season to characterize the soil-plant systems. This data is used to identify and quantify the different sources of uncertainty (factors). An uncertainty analysis, based on Monte Carlo approach, is applied to propagate these uncertainties to CRNS soil moisture estimations. In addition, a sensitivity analysis based on the Sobol’ method is performed to identify the most important factors explaining this uncertainty. Results show that CRNS soil moisture compares well to the soil moisture network when these point-scale values are weighted to account for the spatial sensitivity of the signal and other sources of hydrogen (lattice water and organic carbon) are added to the water content. However, the performance decreases when CRNS is considered as a stand-alone method to retrieve the actual (non-weighted) volumetric soil moisture. The support volume (penetration depth and radius) shows also a considerable uncertainty, especially in relatively dry soil moisture conditions. Four of the seven factors analyzed (the vertical soil moisture profile, bulk density, incoming neutron correction and the calibrated parameter N0) were found to play an important role. Among the possible improvements identified, a simple correction factor based on vertical point-scale soil moisture profiles shows to be a promising approach to account for the sensitivity of the CRNS signal to the upper soil layers. KW - Soil moisture KW - Cosmic-ray neutrons KW - Uncertainty analysis KW - Sensitivity analysis Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.053 SN - 0022-1694 SN - 1879-2707 VL - 564 SP - 873 EP - 887 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Tarantola, S. T1 - A general probabilistic framework for uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models: A hydrological case study JF - Environmental modelling & software with environment data news N2 - The present study proposes a General Probabilistic Framework (GPF) for uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models in which, in addition to scalar inputs, non-scalar and correlated inputs can be considered as well. The analysis is conducted with the variance-based approach of Sobol/Saltelli where first and total sensitivity indices are estimated. The results of the framework can be used in a loop for model improvement, parameter estimation or model simplification. The framework is applied to SWAP, a 113 hydrological model for the transport of water, solutes and heat in unsaturated and saturated soils. The sources of uncertainty are grouped in five main classes: model structure (soil discretization), input (weather data), time-varying (crop) parameters, scalar parameters (soil properties) and observations (measured soil moisture). For each source of uncertainty, different realizations are created based on direct monitoring activities. Uncertainty of evapotranspiration, soil moisture in the root zone and bottom fluxes below the root zone are considered in the analysis. The results show that the sources of uncertainty are different for each output considered and it is necessary to consider multiple output variables for a proper assessment of the model. Improvements on the performance of the model can be achieved reducing the uncertainty in the observations, in the soil parameters and in the weather data. Overall, the study shows the capability of the GPF to quantify the relative contribution of the different sources of uncertainty and to identify the priorities required to improve the performance of the model. The proposed framework can be extended to a wide variety of modelling applications, also when direct measurements of model output are not available. KW - Global sensitivity analysis KW - Non-scalar input factors KW - Hydrological model KW - Multi-variables Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.09.022 SN - 1364-8152 SN - 1873-6726 VL - 51 SP - 26 EP - 34 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Zink, Matthias A1 - Kumar, Rohini A1 - Samaniego, Luis A1 - Attinger, Sabine T1 - Effects of uncertainty in soil properties on simulated hydrological states and fluxes at different spatio-temporal scales JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS N2 - Soil properties show high heterogeneity at different spatial scales and their correct characterization remains a crucial challenge over large areas. The aim of the study is to quantify the impact of different types of uncertainties that arise from the unresolved soil spatial variability on simulated hydrological states and fluxes. Three perturbation methods are presented for the characterization of uncertainties in soil properties. The methods are applied on the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as an example. The uncertainties are propagated through the distributed mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) to assess the impact on the simulated states and fluxes. The model outputs are analysed by aggregating the results at different spatial and temporal scales. These results show that the impact of the different uncertainties introduced in the original soil map is equivalent when the simulated model outputs are analysed at the model grid resolution (i.e. 500 m). However, several differences are identified by aggregating states and fluxes at different spatial scales (by subcatchments of different sizes or coarsening the grid resolution). Streamflow is only sensitive to the perturbation of long spatial structures while distributed states and fluxes (e.g. soil moisture and groundwater recharge) are only sensitive to the local noise introduced to the original soil properties. A clear identification of the temporal and spatial scale for which finer-resolution soil information is (or is not) relevant is unlikely to be universal. However, the comparison of the impacts on the different hydrological components can be used to prioritize the model improvements in specific applications, either by collecting new measurements or by calibration and data assimilation approaches. In conclusion, the study underlines the importance of a correct characterization of uncertainty in soil properties. With that, soil maps with additional information regarding the unresolved soil spatial variability would provide strong support to hydrological modelling applications. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 21 SP - 2301 EP - 2320 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - THES A1 - Barrionuevo, Matías T1 - The role of the upper plate in the Andean tectonic evolution (33-36°S): insights from structural geology and numerical modeling T1 - El rol de la placa superior en la evolución tectónica andina (33-36°S): aportes desde la geología estructural y el modelado numérico T1 - Die Rolle der oberen Platte in der tektonischen Entwicklung der Anden (33-36°S): Erkenntnisse aus der Strukturgeologie und der numerischen Modellierung N2 - Los Andes Centrales del Sur (33-36°S) son un gran laboratorio para el estudio de los procesos de deformación orogénica, donde las condiciones de borde, como la geometría de la placa subductada, imponen un importante control sobre la deformación andina. Por otro lado, la Placa Sudamericana presenta una serie de heterogeneidades que también imparten un control sobre el modo de deformación. El objetivo de esta tesis es probar el control de este último factor sobre la construcción del sistema orogénico andino. A partir de la integración de la información superficial y de subsuelo en el área sur (34°-36°S), se estudió la evolución de la deformación andina sobre el segmento de subducción normal. Se desarrolló un modelo estructural que evalúa el estado de esfuerzos desde el Mioceno hasta la actualidad, el rol de estructuras previas y su influencia en la migración de fluidos. Con estos datos y publicaciones previas de la zona norte del área de estudio (33°-34ºS), se realizó un modelado numérico geodinámico para probar la hipótesis del papel de las heterogeneidades de la placa superior en la evolución andina. Se utilizaron dos códigos (LAPEX-2D y ASPECT) basados en elementos finitos/diferencias finitas, que simulan el comportamiento de materiales con reologías elastoviscoplásticas bajo deformación. Los resultados del modelado sugieren que la deformación contraccional de la placa superior está significativamente controlada por la resistencia de la litósfera, que está definida por la composición de la corteza superior e inferior y por la proporción del manto litosférico, que a su vez está definida por eventos tectónicos previos. Estos eventos previos también definieron la composición de la corteza y su geometría, que es otro factor que controla la localización de la deformación. Con una composición de corteza inferior más félsica, la deformación sigue un modo de cizalla pura mientras que las composiciones más máficas provocan un modo de deformación tipo cizalla simple. Por otro lado, observamos que el espesor inicial de la litósfera controla la localización de la deformación, donde zonas con litósfera más fina es propensa a concentrar la deformación. Un límite litósfera-astenósfera asimétrico, como resultado del flujo de la cuña mantélica tiende a generar despegues vergentes al E. N2 - The Southern Central Andes (33°-36°S) are an excellent natural laboratory to study orogenic deformation processes, where boundary conditions, such as the geometry of the subducted plate, impose an important control on the evolution of the orogen. On the other hand, the South American plate presents a series of heterogeneities that additionally impart control on the mode of deformation. This thesis aims to test the control of this last factor over the construction of the Cenozoic Andean orogenic system. From the integration of surface and subsurface information in the southern area (34-36°S), the evolution of Andean deformation over the steeply dipping subduction segment was studied. A structural model was developed evaluating the stress state from the Miocene to the present-day and its influence in the migration of magmatic fluids and hydrocarbons. Based on these data, together with the data generated by other researchers in the northern zone of the study area (33-34°S), geodynamic numerical modeling was performed to test the hypothesis of the decisive role of upper-plate heterogeneities in the Andean evolution. Geodynamic codes (LAPEX-2D and ASPECT) which simulate the behavior of materials with elasto-visco-plastic rheologies under deformation, were used. The model results suggest that upper-plate contractional deformation is significantly controlled by the strength of the lithosphere, which is defined by the composition of the upper and lower crust, and by the proportion of lithospheric mantle, which in turn is determined by previous tectonic events. In addition, the previous regional tectono-magmatic events also defined the composition of the crust and its geometry, which is another factor that controls the localization of deformation. Accordingly, with more felsic lower crustal composition, the deformation follows a pure-shear mode, while more mafic compositions induce a simple-shear deformation mode. On the other hand, it was observed that initial lithospheric thickness may fundamentally control the location of deformation, with zones characterized by thin lithosphere are prone to concentrate it. Finally, it was found that an asymmetric lithosphere-astenosphere boundary resulting from corner flow in the mantle wedge of the eastward-directed subduction zone tends to generate east-vergent detachments. N2 - Die südlichen Zentralanden (33°-36°S) sind eine ausgezeichnete, natürliche Forschungsumgebung zur Untersuchung gebirgsbildender Deformationsprozesse, in der Randbedingungen, wie die Geometrie der subduzierten Platte, einen starken Einfluss auf die Evolution des Gebirges besitzen. Anderseits sind die Deformationsmechanismen geprägt von der Heterogenität der Südamerikanischen Platte. In dieser Arbeit wird die Bedeutung dieses Mechanismus für die Herausbildung der Anden während des Känozoikums untersucht. Im südlichen Teil (34-36°S), in dem die subduzierte Platte in einem steileren Winkel in den Erdmantel absinkt, wird die Entwicklung der Andendeformation mithilfe von oberflächlich aufgezeichneten und in tiefere Erdschichten reichenden Daten untersucht. Das darauf aufbauende Strukturmodell ermöglicht die Abschätzung der tektonischen Spannungen vom Miozän bis in die Neuzeit und den Einfluss der Bewegungen von magmatischen Fluiden, sowie Kohlenwasserstoffen. Auf Grundlage dieser Daten und solcher, die von Wissenschaftlern im nördlichen Bereich des Untersuchungsgebietes (33-34°S) erfasst wurden, wurde eine geodynamische, numerische Modellierung durchgeführt, um die Hypothese des Einflusses der Heterogenität der oberen Platten auf die Gebirgsbildung der Anden zu überprüfen. Die genutzte geodynamische Softwares (LAPEX-2D und ASPECT) simulieren das Verhalten von elasto-viskoplastischen Materialien, wenn diese unter Spannung stehen. Die Modellierungsergebnisse zeigen, dass die Kontraktionsprozesse hauptsächlich durch die Stärke der Lithosphäre beeinflusst werden. Diese Kenngröße wird aus der Zusammensetzung von Ober- und Unterkruste und dem Anteil des lithosphärischen Mantels, der durch vorhergehende tektonische Vorgänge überprägt ist, bestimmt. Diese räumlich begrenzten tektono-magmatischen Events definieren ebenfalls die Zusammensetzung und die Geometrie der Erdkruste, welche einen großen Einfluss auf das räumliche Auftreten von Deformationsprozessen hat. Eine eher felsische Unterkruste führt vorrangig zu pure-shear, während eine eher mafisch zusammengesetzte Unterkruste primär zu einem Deformationsmechanismus führt, der simple-shear genannt wird. Weiterhing wurde beobachtet, dass die Dicke der Lithosphäre vor der Deformation einen fundamentalen Einfluss auf die räumliche Eingrenzung von Deformation hat, wobei Regionen mit einer dünnen Lithosphärenschicht verstärkt Deformation aufweisen. Eine asymmetrische Grenzschicht zwischen Lithosphäre und Asthenosphäre ist das Resultat von Fließprozessen im Erdmantel, im Keil zwischen der obenliegenden Platte und der sich ostwärts absinkenden Subduktionszone, und verstärkt die Herausbildung von nach Osten gerichteten Abscherungen in der Erdkruste. KW - structural geology KW - tectonics KW - subduction KW - geodynamic modeling KW - geodynamische Modellierung KW - Strukturgeologie KW - Subduktion KW - Tektonik Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515909 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Barth, Sophia A1 - Geertsema, Marten A1 - Bevington, Alexandre R. A1 - Bird, Alison L. A1 - Clague, John J. A1 - Millard, Tom A1 - Bobrowsky, Peter T. A1 - Hasler, Andreas A1 - Liu, Hongjiang T1 - Landslide response to the 27 October 2012 earthquake (M-W 7.8), southern Haida Gwaii, British Columbia, Canada JF - Landslides : journal of the International Consortium on Landslides, ICL N2 - In this paper, we examine the influence of the 27 October 2012, M-w 7.8 earthquake on landslide occurrence in the southern half of Haida Gwaii (formerly Queen Charlotte Islands), British Columbia, Canada. Our 1350 km(2) study area is undisturbed, primarily forested terrain that has not experienced road building or timber harvesting. Our inventory of landslide polygons is based on optical airborne and spaceborne images acquired between 2007 and 2018, from which we extracted and mapped 446 individual landslides (an average of 33 landslides per 100 km(2)). The landslide rate in years without major earthquakes averages 19.4 per year, or 1.4/100 km(2)/year, and the annual average area covered by non-seismically triggered landslides is 35 ha/year. The number of landslides identified in imagery closely following the 2012 earthquake, and probably triggered by it, is 244 or an average of about 18 landslides per 100 km(2). These landslides cover a total area of 461 ha. In the following years-2013-2016 and 2016-2018-the number of landslides fell, respectively, to 26 and 13.5 landslides per year. In non-earthquake years, most landslides happen on south-facing slopes, facing the prevailing winds. In contrast, during or immediately after the earthquake, up to 32% of the landslides occurred on north and northwest-facing slopes. Although we could not find imagery from the day after the earthquake, overview reconnaissance flights 10 and 16 days later showed that most of the landslides were recent, suggesting they were co-seismic. KW - Landslide KW - Earthquake KW - British Columbia KW - Haida Gwaii Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01292-7 SN - 1612-510X SN - 1612-5118 VL - 17 IS - 3 SP - 517 EP - 526 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Barthold, Frauke Katrin A1 - Turner, Benjamin L. A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Zimmermann, Alexander T1 - A hydrochemical approach to quantify the role of return flow in a surface flow-dominated catchment JF - Hydrological processes N2 - Stormflow generation in headwater catchments dominated by subsurface flow has been studied extensively, yet catchments dominated by surface flow have received less attention. We addressed this by testing whether stormflow chemistry is controlled by either (a) the event-water signature of overland flow, or (b) the pre-event water signature of return flow. We used a high-resolution hydrochemical data set of stormflow and end-members of multiple storms in an end-member mixing analysis to determine the number of end-members needed to explain stormflow, characterize and identify potential end-members, calculate their contributions to stormflow, and develop a conceptual model of stormflow. The arrangement and relative positioning of end-members in stormflow mixing space suggest that saturation excess overland flow (26-48%) and return flow from two different subsurface storage pools (17-53%) are both similarly important for stormflow. These results suggest that pipes and fractures are important flow paths to rapidly release stored water and highlight the value of within-event resolution hydrochemical data to assess the full range and dynamics of flow paths. KW - EMMA KW - hydrochemistry KW - overland flow KW - return flow KW - stormflow generation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11083 SN - 0885-6087 SN - 1099-1085 VL - 31 IS - 5 SP - 1018 EP - 1033 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Barthold, Frauke Katrin A1 - Tyralla, Christoph A1 - Schneider, Katrin A1 - Vache, Kellie B. A1 - Frede, Hans-Georg A1 - Breuer, Lutz T1 - How many tracers do we need for end member mixing analysis (EMMA)? - a sensitivity analysis JF - Water resources research N2 - End member mixing analysis (EMMA) is a commonly applied method to identify and quantify the dominant runoff producing sources of water. It employs tracers to determine the dimensionality of the hydrologic system. Many EMMA studies have been conducted using two to six tracers, with some of the main tracers being Ca, Na, Cl(-), water isotopes, and alkalinity. Few studies use larger tracer sets including minor trace elements such as Li, Rb, Sr, and Ba. None of the studies has addressed the question of the tracer set size and composition, despite the fact that these determine which and how many end members (EM) will be identified. We examine how tracer set size and composition affects the conceptual model that results from an EMMA. We developed an automatic procedure that conducts EMMA while iteratively changing tracer set size and composition. We used a set of 14 tracers and 9 EMs. The validity of the resulting conceptual models was investigated under the aspects of dimensionality, EM combinations, and contributions to stream water. From the 16,369 possibilities, 23 delivered plausible results. The resulting conceptual models are highly sensitive to the tracer set size and composition. The moderate reproducibility of EM contributions indicates a still missing EM. It also emphasizes that the major elements are not always the most useful tracers and that larger tracer sets have an enhanced capacity to avoid false conclusions about catchment functioning. The presented approach produces results that may not be apparent from the traditional approach and it is a first step to add the idea of statistical significance to the EMMA approach. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010604 SN - 0043-1397 VL - 47 IS - 7360 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER -