TY - GEN A1 - Fernandez-Palomino, Carlos Antonio A1 - Hattermann, Fred A1 - Krysanova, Valentina A1 - Vega-Jacome, Fiorella A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Towards a more consistent eco-hydrological modelling through multi-objective calibration BT - a case study in the Andean Vilcanota River basin, Perú T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Most hydrological studies rely on a model calibrated using discharge alone. However, judging the model reliability based on such calibration is problematic, as it does not guarantee the correct representation of internal hydrological processes. This study aims (a) to develop a comprehensive multi-objective calibration framework using remote sensing vegetation data and hydrological signatures (flow duration curve - FDC, and baseflow index) in addition to discharge, and (b) to apply this framework for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a typical Andean catchment. Overall, our calibration approach outperformed traditional discharge-based and FDC signature-based calibration strategies in terms of vegetation, streamflow, and flow partitioning simulation. New hydrological insights for the region are the following: baseflow is the main component of the streamflow sustaining the long dry-season flow, and pasture areas offer higher water yield and baseflow than other land-cover types. The proposed approach could be used in other data-scarce regions with complex topography. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1377 KW - Andes KW - eco-hydrology KW - SWAT KW - hydrological signatures KW - remote sensing KW - equifinality Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-568766 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Cunha Costa, Alexandre A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil BT - what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical approach. Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher sensitivity of model prediction performance to rainfall forecast quality. Within the scope of this study, the statistical model proved to be the more straightforward approach for predictions of reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model can be worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 702 KW - Water Availability KW - Uncertainty Processor KW - Forecasting Framework KW - Sediment Transport KW - Reservoir Networks KW - Jaguaribe Basin KW - Climate KW - Precipitation KW - Nordeste KW - Connectivity Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427950 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 702 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rottler, Erwin A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Rakovec, Oldrich T1 - Projected changes in Rhine River flood seasonality under global warming T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Climatic change alters the frequency and intensity of natural hazards. In order to assess potential future changes in flood seasonality in the Rhine River Basin, we analyse changes in streamflow, snowmelt, precipitation, and evapotranspiration at 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 ◦C global warming levels. The mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) forced with an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways) is used to simulate the present and future climate conditions of both, pluvial and nival hydrological regimes. Our results indicate that the interplay between changes in snowmelt- and rainfall-driven runoff is crucial to understand changes in streamflow maxima in the Rhine River. Climate projections suggest that future changes in flood characteristics in the entire Rhine River are controlled by both, more intense precipitation events and diminishing snow packs. The nature of this interplay defines the type of change in runoff peaks. On the sub-basin level (the Moselle River), more intense rainfall during winter is mostly counterbalanced by reduced snowmelt contribution to the streamflow. In the High Rhine (gauge at Basel), the strongest increases in streamflow maxima show up during winter, when strong increases in liquid precipitation intensity encounter almost unchanged snowmelt-driven runoff. The analysis of snowmelt events suggests that at no point in time during the snowmelt season, a warming climate results in an increase in the risk of snowmelt-driven flooding. We do not find indications of a transient merging of pluvial and nival floods due to climate warming. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1164 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-522962 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kormann, Christoph A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Recknagel, Thomas A1 - Gräff, Thomas T1 - Model-Based attribution of high-resolution streamflow trends in two alpine basins of Western Austria N2 - Several trend studies have shown that hydrological conditions are changing considerably in the Alpine region. However, the reasons for these changes are only partially understood and trend analyses alone are not able to shed much light. Hydrological modelling is one possible way to identify the trend drivers, i.e., to attribute the detected streamflow trends, given that the model captures all important processes causing the trends. We modelled the hydrological conditions for two alpine catchments in western Austria (a large, mostly lower-altitude catchment with wide valley plains and a nested high-altitude, glaciated headwater catchment) with the distributed, physically-oriented WaSiM-ETH model, which includes a dynamical glacier module. The model was calibrated in a transient mode, i.e., not only on several standard goodness measures and glacier extents, but also in such a way that the simulated streamflow trends fit with the observed ones during the investigation period 1980 to 2007. With this approach, it was possible to separate streamflow components, identify the trends of flow components, and study their relation to trends in atmospheric variables. In addition to trends in annual averages, highly resolved trends for each Julian day were derived, since they proved powerful in an earlier, data-based attribution study. We were able to show that annual and highly resolved trends can be modelled sufficiently well. The results provide a holistic, year-round picture of the drivers of alpine streamflow changes: Higher-altitude catchments are strongly affected by earlier firn melt and snowmelt in spring and increased ice melt throughout the ablation season. Changes in lower-altitude areas are mostly caused by earlier and lower snowmelt volumes. All highly resolved trends in streamflow and its components show an explicit similarity to the local temperature trends. Finally, results indicate that evapotranspiration has been increasing in the lower altitudes during the study period. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 364 KW - trend attribution KW - trend detection KW - climate change KW - trend drivers KW - hydrological modelling KW - alpine catchments KW - streamflow KW - hydroclimatology Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400641 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - lumpR 2.0.0: an R package facilitating landscape discretisation for hillslope-based hydrological models N2 - The characteristics of a landscape pose essential factors for hydrological processes. Therefore, an adequate representation of the landscape of a catchment in hydrological models is vital. However, many of such models exist differing, amongst others, in spatial concept and discretisation. The latter constitutes an essential pre-processing step, for which many different algorithms along with numerous software implementations exist. In that context, existing solutions are often model specific, commercial, or depend on commercial back-end software, and allow only a limited or no workflow automation at all. Consequently, a new package for the scientific software and scripting environment R, called lumpR, was developed. lumpR employs an algorithm for hillslope-based landscape discretisation directed to large-scale application via a hierarchical multi-scale approach. The package addresses existing limitations as it is free and open source, easily extendible to other hydrological models, and the workflow can be fully automated. Moreover, it is user-friendly as the direct coupling to a GIS allows for immediate visual inspection and manual adjustment. Sufficient control is furthermore retained via parameter specification and the option to include expert knowledge. Conversely, completely automatic operation also allows for extensive analysis of aspects related to landscape discretisation. In a case study, the application of the package is presented. A sensitivity analysis of the most important discretisation parameters demonstrates its efficient workflow automation. Considering multiple streamflow metrics, the employed model proved reasonably robust to the discretisation parameters. However, parameters determining the sizes of subbasins and hillslopes proved to be more important than the others, including the number of representative hillslopes, the number of attributes employed for the lumping algorithm, and the number of sub-discretisations of the representative hillslopes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 389 Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-402880 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Lawrence, D. A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Climate change impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods BT - projections and uncertainties for catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes N2 - Climate change is likely to impact the seasonality and generation processes of floods in the Nordic countries, which has direct implications for flood risk assessment, design flood estimation, and hydropower production management. Using a multi-model/multi-parameter approach to simulate daily discharge for a reference (1961–1990) and a future (2071–2099) period, we analysed the projected changes in flood seasonality and generation processes in six catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes under the current climate in Norway. The multi-model/multi-parameter ensemble consists of (i) eight combinations of global and regional climate models, (ii) two methods for adjusting the climate model output to the catchment scale, and (iii) one conceptual hydrological model with 25 calibrated parameter sets. Results indicate that autumn/winter events become more frequent in all catchments considered, which leads to an intensification of the current autumn/winter flood regime for the coastal catchments, a reduction of the dominance of spring/summer flood regimes in a high-mountain catchment, and a possible systematic shift in the current flood regimes from spring/summer to autumn/winter in the two catchments located in northern and south-eastern Norway. The changes in flood regimes result from increasing event magnitudes or frequencies, or a combination of both during autumn and winter. Changes towards more dominant autumn/winter events correspond to an increasing relevance of rainfall as a flood generating process (FGP) which is most pronounced in those catchments with the largest shifts in flood seasonality. Here, rainfall replaces snowmelt as the dominant FGP primarily due to increasing temperature.We further analysed the ensemble components in contributing to overall uncertainty in the projected changes and found that the climate projections and the methods for downscaling or bias correction tend to be the largest contributors. The relative role of hydrological parameter uncertainty, however, is highest for those catchments showing the largest changes in flood seasonality, which confirms the lack of robustness in hydrological model parameterization for simulations under transient hydrometeorological conditions. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 204 Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-84366 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kormann, C. A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Renner, M. A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria BT - an approach based on climate and discharge station data N2 - The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 260 KW - time-series KW - alpine KW - snow KW - variability KW - switzerland KW - impacts KW - regimes KW - temperature KW - seasonality KW - catchments Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-96560 SP - 1225 EP - 1245 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Didovets, Iulii A1 - Lobanova, Anastasia A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Snizhko, Sergiy A1 - Maule, Cathrine Fox A1 - Krysanova, Valentina T1 - Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling N2 - The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 323 KW - Ukraine KW - climate change impact KW - river discharge KW - Samara KW - Teteriv KW - Western Bug KW - runoff KW - SWIM KW - IMPRESSIONS Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394956 ER -