TY  - JOUR
A1  - Topping, Christopher J.
A1  - Alroe, Hugo Fjelsted
A1  - Farrell, Katharine N.
A1  - Grimm, Volker
T1  - Per Aspera ad Astra: Through Complex Population Modeling to Predictive Theory
JF  - The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences
N2  - Population models in ecology are often not good at predictions, even if they are complex and seem to be realistic enough. The reason for this might be that Occam's razor, which is key for minimal models exploring ideas and concepts, has been too uncritically adopted for more realistic models of systems. This can tic models too closely to certain situations, thereby preventing them from predicting the response to new conditions. We therefore advocate a new kind of parsimony to improve the application of Occam's razor. This new parsimony balances two contrasting strategies for avoiding errors in modeling: avoiding inclusion of nonessential factors (false inclusions) and avoiding exclusion of sometimes-important factors (false exclusions). It involves a synthesis of traditional modeling and analysis, used to describe the essentials of mechanistic relationships, with elements that arc included in a model because they have been reported to be or can arguably be assumed to be important under certain conditions. The resulting models should be able to reflect how the internal organization of populations change and thereby generate representations of the novel behavior necessary for complex predictions, including regime shifts.
KW  - complexity
KW  - error avoidance
KW  - agent-based models
KW  - model development
KW  - modest approach
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1086/683181
SN  - 0003-0147
SN  - 1537-5323
VL  - 186
IS  - 5
SP  - 669
EP  - 674
PB  - Univ. of Chicago Press
CY  - Chicago
ER  -