TY  - JOUR
A1  - De Frenne, Pieter
A1  - Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco
A1  - Coomes, David Anthony
A1  - Bäten, Lander
A1  - Versträten, Gorik
A1  - Vellend, Mark
A1  - Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus
A1  - Brown, Carissa D.
A1  - Brunet, Jörg
A1  - Cornelis, Johnny
A1  - Decocq, Guillaume M.
A1  - Dierschke, Hartmut
A1  - Eriksson, Ove
A1  - Gilliam, Frank S.
A1  - Hedl, Radim
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Hermy, Martin
A1  - Hommel, Patrick
A1  - Jenkins, Michael A.
A1  - Kelly, Daniel L.
A1  - Kirby, Keith J.
A1  - Mitchell, Fraser J. G.
A1  - Naaf, Tobias
A1  - Newman, Miles
A1  - Peterken, George
A1  - Petrik, Petr
A1  - Schultz, Jan
A1  - Sonnier, Gregory
A1  - Van Calster, Hans
A1  - Waller, Donald M.
A1  - Walther, Gian-Reto
A1  - White, Peter S.
A1  - Woods, Kerry D.
A1  - Wulf, Monika
A1  - Graae, Bente Jessen
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
T1  - Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming
JF  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
N2  - Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass-e.g., for bioenergy-may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.
KW  - climate change
KW  - forest management
KW  - understory
KW  - climatic debt
KW  - range shifts
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1311190110
SN  - 0027-8424
VL  - 110
IS  - 46
SP  - 18561
EP  - 18565
PB  - National Acad. of Sciences
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
A1  - Thuiller, Wilfried
A1  - Higgins, Steven
A1  - Midgley, Guy F.
A1  - Rebelo, Anthony G.
A1  - Rouget, Mathieu
A1  - Schurr, Frank Martin
T1  - Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae
JF  - Diversity & distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity
N2  - Aim To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change. Location South African Cape Floristic Region. Methods We use data-driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species-specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long-distance dispersal on top of expected spatio-temporal dynamics of suitable habitat. Results Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography. Main conclusions Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data-driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.
KW  - biodiversity refugia
KW  - CFR Proteaceae
KW  - climate change
KW  - demographic properties
KW  - habitat loss
KW  - local abundances
KW  - process-based range models
KW  - range filling
KW  - range size
KW  - species distribution models
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12011
SN  - 1366-9516
VL  - 19
IS  - 4
SP  - 363
EP  - 376
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wasof, Safaa
A1  - Lenoir, Jonathan
A1  - Gallet-Moron, Emilie
A1  - Jamoneau, Aurelien
A1  - Brunet, Jörg
A1  - Cousins, Sara A. O.
A1  - De Frenne, Pieter
A1  - Diekmann, Martin
A1  - Hermy, Martin
A1  - Kolb, Annette
A1  - Liira, Jaan
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
A1  - Wulf, Monika
A1  - Decocq, Guillaume
T1  - Ecological niche shifts of understorey plants along a latitudinal gradient of temperate forests in north-western Europe
JF  - Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology
N2  - Aim In response to environmental changes and to avoid extinction, species may either track suitable environmental conditions or adapt to the modified environment. However, whether and how species adapt to environmental changes remains unclear. By focusing on the realized niche (i.e. the actual space that a species inhabits and the resources it can access as a result of limiting biotic factors present in its habitat), we here examine shifts in the realized-niche width (i.e. ecological amplitude) and position (i.e. ecological optimum) of 26 common and widespread forest understorey plants across their distributional ranges.
 Location Temperate forests along a ca. 1800-km-long latitudinal gradient from northern France to central Sweden and Estonia.
 Methods We derived species' realized-niche width from a -diversity metric, which increases if the focal species co-occurs with more species. Based on the concept that species' scores in a detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) represent the locations of their realized-niche positions, we developed a novel approach to run species-specific DCAs allowing the focal species to shift its realized-niche position along the studied latitudinal gradient while the realized-niche positions of other species were held constant.
 Results None of the 26 species maintained both their realized-niche width and position along the latitudinal gradient. Few species (9 of 26: 35%) shifted their realized-niche width, but all shifted their realized-niche position. With increasing latitude, most species (22 of 26: 85%) shifted their realized-niche position for soil nutrients and pH towards nutrient-poorer and more acidic soils.
 Main conclusions Forest understorey plants shifted their realized niche along the latitudinal gradient, suggesting local adaptation and/or plasticity. This macroecological pattern casts doubt on the idea that the realized niche is stable in space and time, which is a key assumption of species distribution models used to predict the future of biodiversity, hence raising concern about predicted extinction rates.
KW  - Beta diversity
KW  - climate change
KW  - detrended correspondence analyses
KW  - Ellenberg indicator values
KW  - forest understorey plant species
KW  - niche optimum
KW  - niche width
KW  - plant community
KW  - realized niche
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12073
SN  - 1466-822X
VL  - 22
IS  - 10
SP  - 1130
EP  - 1140
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  -