TY - JOUR A1 - Bettenbühl, Mario A1 - Rusconi, Marco A1 - Engbert, Ralf A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Bayesian selection of Markov Models for symbol sequences application to microsaccadic eye movements JF - PLoS one N2 - Complex biological dynamics often generate sequences of discrete events which can be described as a Markov process. The order of the underlying Markovian stochastic process is fundamental for characterizing statistical dependencies within sequences. As an example for this class of biological systems, we investigate the Markov order of sequences of microsaccadic eye movements from human observers. We calculate the integrated likelihood of a given sequence for various orders of the Markov process and use this in a Bayesian framework for statistical inference on the Markov order. Our analysis shows that data from most participants are best explained by a first-order Markov process. This is compatible with recent findings of a statistical coupling of subsequent microsaccade orientations. Our method might prove to be useful for a broad class of biological systems. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0043388 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 7 IS - 9 PB - PLoS CY - San Fransisco ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Narteau, C. A1 - Shebalin, P. A1 - Peng, Z. A1 - Schorlemmer, Danijel T1 - Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - In order to examine variations in aftershock decay rate, we propose a Bayesian framework to estimate the {K, c, p}-values of the modified Omori law (MOL), lambda(t) = K(c + t)(-p). The Bayesian setting allows not only to produce a point estimator of these three parameters but also to assess their uncertainties and posterior dependencies with respect to the observed aftershock sequences. Using a new parametrization of the MOL, we identify the trade-off between the c and p-value estimates and discuss its dependence on the number of aftershocks. Then, we analyze the influence of the catalog completeness interval [t(start), t(stop)] on the various estimates. To test this Bayesian approach on natural aftershock sequences, we use two independent and non-overlapping aftershock catalogs of the same earthquakes in Japan. Taking into account the posterior uncertainties, we show that both the handpicked (short times) and the instrumental (long times) catalogs predict the same ranges of parameter values. We therefore conclude that the same MOL may be valid over short and long times. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009054 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 117 IS - 6089 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - THES A1 - Keller, Peter T1 - Mathematical modeling of molecular motors Y1 - 2012 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pfäffle, Frank A1 - Stephan, Christoph A. T1 - On gravity, torsion and the spectral action principle JF - Journal of functional analysis N2 - We consider compact Riemannian spin manifolds without boundary equipped with orthogonal connections. We investigate the induced Dirac operators and the associated commutative spectral triples. In case of dimension four and totally anti-symmetric torsion we compute the Chamseddine-Connes spectral action, deduce the equations of motions and discuss critical points. KW - Orthogonal connections with torsion KW - Spectral triples KW - Commutative geometries KW - Chamseddine-Connes spectral action Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfa.2011.11.013 SN - 0022-1236 VL - 262 IS - 4 SP - 1529 EP - 1565 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shebalin, Peter A1 - Narteau, Clement A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - From alarm-based to rate-based earthquake forecast models JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - We propose a conversion method from alarm-based to rate-based earthquake forecast models. A differential probability gain g(alarm)(ref) is the absolute value of the local slope of the Molchan trajectory that evaluates the performance of the alarm-based model with respect to the chosen reference model. We consider that this differential probability gain is constant over time. Its value at each point of the testing region depends only on the alarm function value. The rate-based model is the product of the event rate of the reference model at this point multiplied by the corresponding differential probability gain. Thus, we increase or decrease the initial rates of the reference model according to the additional amount of information contained in the alarm-based model. Here, we apply this method to the Early Aftershock STatistics (EAST) model, an alarm-based model in which early aftershocks are used to identify space-time regions with a higher level of stress and, consequently, a higher seismogenic potential. The resulting rate-based model shows similar performance to the original alarm-based model for all ranges of earthquake magnitude in both retrospective and prospective tests. This conversion method offers the opportunity to perform all the standard evaluation tests of the earthquake testing centers on alarm-based models. In addition, we infer that it can also be used to consecutively combine independent forecast models and, with small modifications, seismic hazard maps with short- and medium-term forecasts. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110126 SN - 0037-1106 VL - 102 IS - 1 SP - 64 EP - 72 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gauthier, P. M. A1 - Tarkhanov, Nikolai Nikolaevich T1 - On the instability of the Riemann hypothesis for curves over finite fields JF - Journal of approximation theory N2 - We show that it is possible to approximate the zeta-function of a curve over a finite field by meromorphic functions which satisfy the same functional equation and moreover satisfy (respectively do not satisfy) an analog of the Riemann hypothesis. In the other direction, it is possible to approximate holomorphic functions by simple manipulations of such a zeta-function. No number theory is required to understand the theorems and their proofs, for it is known that the zeta-functions of curves over finite fields are very explicit meromorphic functions. We study the approximation properties of these meromorphic functions. KW - Zeta-function Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jat.2011.12.002 SN - 0021-9045 VL - 164 IS - 4 SP - 504 EP - 515 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Blanchard, Gilles A1 - Mathe, Peter T1 - Discrepancy principle for statistical inverse problems with application to conjugate gradient iteration JF - Inverse problems : an international journal of inverse problems, inverse methods and computerised inversion of data N2 - The authors discuss the use of the discrepancy principle for statistical inverse problems, when the underlying operator is of trace class. Under this assumption the discrepancy principle is well defined, however a plain use of it may occasionally fail and it will yield sub-optimal rates. Therefore, a modification of the discrepancy is introduced, which corrects both of the above deficiencies. For a variety of linear regularization schemes as well as for conjugate gradient iteration it is shown to yield order optimal a priori error bounds under general smoothness assumptions. A posteriori error control is also possible, however at a sub-optimal rate, in general. This study uses and complements previous results for bounded deterministic noise. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/0266-5611/28/11/115011 SN - 0266-5611 VL - 28 IS - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nehring, Benjamin A1 - Zessin, Hans T1 - A representation of the moment measures of the general ideal Boe gas JF - Mathematische Nachrichten N2 - We reconsider the fundamental work of Fichtner 2 and exhibit the permanental structure of the ideal Bose gas again, using a new approach which combines a characterization of infinitely divisible random measures (due to Kerstan, Kummer and Matthes 4, 6 and Mecke 9, 10) with a decomposition of the moment measures into its factorial measures due to Krickeberg 5. To be more precise, we exhibit the moment measures of all orders of the general ideal Bose gas in terms of certain loop integrals. This representation can be considered as a point process analogue of the old idea of Symanzik 15 that local times and self-crossings of the Brownian motion can be used as a tool in quantum field theory. Behind the notion of a general ideal Bose gas there is a class of infinitely divisible point processes of all orders with a Levy-measure belonging to some large class of measures containing that of the classical ideal Bose gas considered by Fichtner. It is well-known that the calculation of moments of higher order of point processes is notoriously complicated. See for instance Krickebergs calculations for the Poisson or the Cox process in 5. Relations to the work of Shirai, Takahashi 12 and Soshnikov 14 on permanental and determinantal processes are outlined. KW - Infinitely divisible point processes KW - integration by parts formula KW - random KMM-measure KW - permanental and determinantal point processes (MSC 2010) 35K55 KW - 35K65 Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/mana.201000111 SN - 0025-584X VL - 285 IS - 7 SP - 878 EP - 888 PB - Wiley-VCH CY - Weinheim ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Eichmair, Michael A1 - Metzger, Jan T1 - On large volume preserving stable CMC surfaces in initial data sets JF - Journal of differential geometry N2 - Let (M, g) be a complete 3-dimensional asymptotically flat manifold with everywhere positive scalar curvature. We prove that, given a compact subset K subset of M, all volume preserving stable constant mean curvature surfaces of sufficiently large area will avoid K. This complements the results of G. Huisken and S.-T. Yau [17] and of J. Qing and G. Tian [26] on the uniqueness of large volume preserving stable constant mean curvature spheres in initial data sets that are asymptotically close to Schwarzschild with mass m > 0. The analysis in [17] and [26] takes place in the asymptotic regime of M. Here we adapt ideas from the minimal surface proof of the positive mass theorem [32] by R. Schoen and S.-T. Yau and develop geometric properties of volume preserving stable constant mean curvature surfaces to handle surfaces that run through the part of M that is far from Euclidean. Y1 - 2012 SN - 0022-040X VL - 91 IS - 1 SP - 81 EP - 102 PB - International Press of Boston CY - Somerville ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wang, Lifeng A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Stress- and aftershock-constrained joint inversions for coseismic and postseismic slip applied to the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - Both aftershocks and geodetically measured postseismic displacements are important markers of the stress relaxation process following large earthquakes. Postseismic displacements can be related to creep-like relaxation in the vicinity of the coseismic rupture by means of inversion methods. However, the results of slip inversions are typically non-unique and subject to large uncertainties. Therefore, we explore the possibility to improve inversions by mechanical constraints. In particular, we take into account the physical understanding that postseismic deformation is stress-driven, and occurs in the coseismically stressed zone. We do joint inversions for coseismic and postseismic slip in a Bayesian framework in the case of the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake. We perform a number of inversions with different constraints, and calculate their statistical significance. According to information criteria, the best result is preferably related to a physically reasonable model constrained by the stress-condition (namely postseismic creep is driven by coseismic stress) and the condition that coseismic slip and large aftershocks are disjunct. This model explains 97% of the coseismic displacements and 91% of the postseismic displacements during day 1-5 following the Parkfield event, respectively. It indicates that the major postseismic deformation can be generally explained by a stress relaxation process for the Parkfield case. This result also indicates that the data to constrain the coseismic slip model could be enriched postseismically. For the 2004 Parkfield event, we additionally observe asymmetric relaxation process at the two sides of the fault, which can be explained by material contrast ratio across the fault of similar to 1.15 in seismic velocity. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009017 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 117 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER -