TY - THES A1 - Renard, Léa T1 - Socio-histoire de l'observation statistique de l'altérité BT - Principes de classification coloniale, nationale et migratoire en France et en Allemagne (1880 - 2010) N2 - Autour de 1990 en France et de 2005 en Allemagne, deux nouvelles catégories sont introduites dans le champ de la statistique de la population. Toutes deux, « immigré » et « Person mit Migrationshintergrund », font appel au registre de la migration pour qualifier un groupe de population. Notre analyse montre que ces deux événements sont révélateurs d’un changement de signification des catégorisations statistiques de la migration dans les deux pays, de la description de la mobilité vers l’observation de l’altérité de la population, changement lié au contexte de la politique publique dite d’« intégration » qui se développe en France et en Allemagne dans les années 1990-2000. La thèse interroge ainsi la manière dont la statistique rend la migration socialement pertinente pour construire l’altérité. Pour pouvoir comprendre le virage entrepris dans les nomenclatures statistiques et le resituer dans une perspective de longue durée, nous avons postulé qu’il fallait aller chercher dans l’histoire de la statistique ce qui avait tenu lieu de classification principale de la population, en lieu et place des nouvelles catégories inventées au tournant des XXe et XXIe siècles. Nous nous sommes donc interrogée sur la genèse et l’institutionnalisation des catégories de l’altérité et de la mobilité dans la période 1880-1914, alors que la France et l’Allemagne, à l’époque le Deutsches Kaiserreich, se constituent en États-nations et en empires coloniaux. Pour observer ces processus empiriquement, nous avons choisi de comparer les pratiques de catégorisation de l’altérité et la mobilité (1) en France et en Allemagne, (2) à deux périodes différentes, 1880-1914 et 1990-2010, et (3) dans le contexte métropolitain et colonial. L’analyse socio-historique comparée d’après la méthodologie de la comparaison en contexte a reposé sur une asymétrie assumée entre les deux périodes étudiées : tandis qu’il s’agissait de reconstruire la genèse des catégories « immigré » et « Person mit Migrationshintergrund » à deux moments distincts temporellement en France et en Allemagne, l’analyse de la période 1880-1914 a consisté à mettre au jour ruptures et continuités historiques des principes de classification sur l’ensemble de la période dans une perspective croisée. La démarche n’est ni chronologique ni rétrospective : elle contraste deux configurations historiques pour tenter d’identifier des ressemblances et des différences. Nos résultats montrent qu’entre 1880 et 1914, la catégorie de migration est majoritairement associée à un phénomène de mobilité dans les discours politiques et statistiques. À cette époque, la focale se porte sur l’émigration, redéfinie comme un déplacement géographique en dehors des frontières de la nation et de l’Empire. Le transport des « émigrants », catégorie de population qui nourrit le débat et les tableaux statistiques, fait l’objet des problématisations politiques. Les statistiques relatives à l’émigration comme mobilité étaient alors séparées de l’observation de la composition de la population, à travers le critère de la nationalité dans le contexte métropolitain et des schémas « raciaux » dans le contexte colonial. En 1990 en France et 2005 en Allemagne, le registre de la migration est mobilisé cette fois pour observer statistiquement la composition de la population. Nos résultats ont permis de mettre au jour trois principes de construction de l’altérité dans les deux pays et dans les deux périodes étudiées : un principe national, un principe colonial et un principe migratoire. La thèse développe ainsi une approche renouvelée des interactions entre observation statistique et politique publique, en testant empiriquement sur le terrain des statistiques relatives à la migration l’hypothèse de la « circularité du savoir et de l’action » mise au point par Alain Desrosières N2 - Around 1990 in France and 2005 in Germany, two new categories were introduced in the field of population statistics. Both “immigré” and “Person mit Migrationshintergrund” use the semantics of migration to describe a population group. My analysis shows that these two events reveal a shift in the meaning associated to migration in statistical categories in both countries. The meaning of the category changes from a mere description of mobility to the ascription of otherness within a population, a change linked to the so-called integration policy that is developing in France and Germany in the years 1990-2000. The analysis reveals the way in which statistics make migration socially relevant to the construction of otherness. The thesis thus develops a renewed approach to the interactions between statistical observation and public policy, by empirically testing the hypothesis of the “circularity of knowledge and action” developed by Alain Desrosières. These shifts in statistical nomenclatures can only be understood if we adopt a long-term perspective. It is necessary to look at the history of statistics and to compare how populations have been classified differently over time in order to understand the new categories invented at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries. We therefore question the genesis and institutionalization of the categories of otherness and mobility in the period 1880-1914, during the formation of France and the German Kaiserreich as nation states and colonial empires. To observe these processes empirically, we chose to compare the practices of categorization of otherness and mobility (1) in France and Germany, (2) at two different time periods, 1880-1914 and 1990-2010, and (3) in the metropolitan as well as colonial context. The analytical foci in both periods are slightly different. For 1990-2010, the aim was to reconstruct the genesis of the categories “immigré” and “Person mit Migrationshintergrund”, whereas the analysis of the period 1880-1914 consists of uncovering historical ruptures and continuities in the classification principles over the entire period. The approach is neither symmetrical, nor chronological: it contrasts two historical configurations in an attempt to identify similarities and differences. Our results show that between 1880 and 1914, migration as a category was mostly associated with a mobility phenomenon in political and statistical discourse. At that time, the focus was on emigration, redefined as a geographical outward movement, i.e. people leaving the borders of the nation and the Empire. The transport of “emigrants”, a category of population that fueled public debate and statistical tables, was constructed as a political problem. Statistics on emigration were then separated from the observation of the composition of the population. In the metropolitan context, this happened through the introduction of the criterion of nationality and in the colonial context through “racial” patterns. In 1990 in France and 2005 in Germany, migration semantics were then used to statistically observe the composition of the population. Our results reveal three principles along which the construction of otherness takes place in the two countries and in the two time periods studied: a national principle, a colonial principle and a migratory principle. These findings remind us that statistics are never neutral but always steeped in their socio historical and political context – an important aspect to remember especially in times when migration policies are again a topic high on the agenda of public debates and policy makers. KW - France KW - migration KW - statistiques KW - France KW - migration KW - statistics Y1 - 2019 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Superstatistics and non-Gaussian diffusion JF - The European physical journal special topics N2 - Brownian motion and viscoelastic anomalous diffusion in homogeneous environments are intrinsically Gaussian processes. In a growing number of systems, however, non-Gaussian displacement distributions of these processes are being reported. The physical cause of the non-Gaussianity is typically seen in different forms of disorder. These include, for instance, imperfect "ensembles" of tracer particles, the presence of local variations of the tracer mobility in heteroegenous environments, or cases in which the speed or persistence of moving nematodes or cells are distributed. From a theoretical point of view stochastic descriptions based on distributed ("superstatistical") transport coefficients as well as time-dependent generalisations based on stochastic transport parameters with built-in finite correlation time are invoked. After a brief review of the history of Brownian motion and the famed Gaussian displacement distribution, we here provide a brief introduction to the phenomenon of non-Gaussianity and the stochastic modelling in terms of superstatistical and diffusing-diffusivity approaches. KW - Brownian diffusion KW - anomalous diffusion KW - dynamics KW - kinetic-theory KW - models KW - motion KW - nanoparticles KW - nonergodicity KW - statistics KW - subdiffusion Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-900210-x SN - 1951-6355 SN - 1951-6401 VL - 229 IS - 5 SP - 711 EP - 728 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vollbrecht, Joachim A1 - Brus, Viktor V. T1 - On the recombination order of surface recombination under open circuit conditions JF - Organic electronics : physics, materials and applications N2 - Understanding the recombination dynamics of organic and perovskite solar cells has been a crucial prerequisite in the steadily increasing performance of these promising new types of photovoltaics. Surface recombination in particular has turned out to be one of the last remaining roadblocks, which specifically reduces the open circuit voltage. In this study, the relationship between the rate of surface recombination and the density of charge carriers is analyzed, revealing a cubic dependence between these two parameters. This hypothesis is then tested and verified with the recombination dynamics of an organic solar cell known to exhibit significant surface recombination and a high energy proton irradiated CH3NH3PbI3 pemvskite solar cell during white light illumination. Incidentally, these results can also explain recombination orders exceeding the commonly known threshold for bimolecular recombination that have been observed in some studies without the need for a charge carrier dependent bimolecular recombination coefficient. KW - surface recombination KW - recombination order KW - organic photovoltaics KW - Perovskite solar cells KW - charge carrier density KW - Shockley-Read-Hall KW - statistics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orgel.2020.105905 SN - 1566-1199 SN - 1878-5530 VL - 86 PB - Elsevier Science CY - Amsterdam [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Doerr, Benjamin A1 - Krejca, Martin S. T1 - Significance-based estimation-of-distribution algorithms JF - IEEE transactions on evolutionary computation N2 - Estimation-of-distribution algorithms (EDAs) are randomized search heuristics that create a probabilistic model of the solution space, which is updated iteratively, based on the quality of the solutions sampled according to the model. As previous works show, this iteration-based perspective can lead to erratic updates of the model, in particular, to bit-frequencies approaching a random boundary value. In order to overcome this problem, we propose a new EDA based on the classic compact genetic algorithm (cGA) that takes into account a longer history of samples and updates its model only with respect to information which it classifies as statistically significant. We prove that this significance-based cGA (sig-cGA) optimizes the commonly regarded benchmark functions OneMax (OM), LeadingOnes, and BinVal all in quasilinear time, a result shown for no other EDA or evolutionary algorithm so far. For the recently proposed stable compact genetic algorithm-an EDA that tries to prevent erratic model updates by imposing a bias to the uniformly distributed model-we prove that it optimizes OM only in a time exponential in its hypothetical population size. Similarly, we show that the convex search algorithm cannot optimize OM in polynomial time. KW - heuristic algorithms KW - sociology KW - statistics KW - history KW - probabilistic KW - logic KW - benchmark testing KW - genetic algorithms KW - estimation-of-distribution KW - algorithm (EDA) KW - run time analysis KW - theory Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/TEVC.2019.2956633 SN - 1089-778X SN - 1941-0026 VL - 24 IS - 6 SP - 1025 EP - 1034 PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers CY - New York, NY ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Tilmann, Frederik A1 - Woith, Heiko A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; Müller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078 JF - Ethology N2 - Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power. KW - animal behavior KW - earthquake precursor KW - error diagram KW - prediction KW - randomness KW - statistics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/eth.13105 SN - 0179-1613 SN - 1439-0310 VL - 127 IS - 3 SP - 302 EP - 306 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nomosatryo, Sulung A1 - Tjallingii, Rik A1 - Henny, Cynthia A1 - Ridwansyah, Iwan A1 - Wagner, Dirk A1 - Tomás, Sara A1 - Kallmeyer, Jens T1 - Surface sediment composition and depositional environments in tropical Lake Sentani, Papua Province, Indonesia JF - Journal of Paleolimnology N2 - Tropical Lake Sentani in the Indonesian Province Papua consists of four separate basins and is surrounded by a catchment with a very diverse geology. We characterized the surface sediment (upper 5 cm) of the lake's four sub-basins based on multivariate statistical analyses (principal component analysis, hierarchical clustering) of major element compositions obtained by X-ray fluorescence scanning. Three types of sediment are identified based on distinct compositional differences between rivers, shallow/proximal and deep/distal lake sediments. The different sediment types are mainly characterized by the correlation of elements associated with redox processes (S, Mn, Fe), carbonates (Ca), and detrital input (Ti, Al, Si, K) derived by river discharge. The relatively coarse-grained river sediments mainly derive form the mafic catchment geology and contribution of the limestone catchment geology is only limited. Correlation of redox sensitive and detrital elements are used to reveal oxidation conditions, and indicate oxic conditions in river samples and reducing conditions for lake sediments. Organic carbon (TOC) generally correlates with redox sensitive elements, although a correlation between TOC and individual elements change strongly between the three sediment types. Pyrite is the quantitatively dominant reduced sulfur mineral, monosulfides only reach appreciable concentrations in samples from rivers draining mafic and ultramafic catchments. Our study shows large spatial heterogeneity within the lake's sub-basins that is mainly caused by catchment geology and topography, river runoff as well as the bathymetry and the depth of the oxycline. We show that knowledge about lateral heterogeneity is crucial for understanding the geochemical and sedimentological variations recorded by these sediments. The highly variable conditions make Lake Sentani a natural laboratory, with its different sub-basins representing different depositional environments under identical tropical climate conditions. KW - Tropical lake KW - Lacustrine sediment KW - XRF analysis KW - Multivariate KW - statistics Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-022-00259-4 SN - 0921-2728 SN - 1573-0417 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lewkowicz, Daniel A1 - Böttinger, Erwin A1 - Siegel, Martin T1 - Economic evaluation of digital therapeutic care apps for unsupervised treatment of low back pain BT - Monte Carlo Simulation JF - JMIR mhealth and uhealth N2 - Background: Digital therapeutic care (DTC) programs are unsupervised app-based treatments that provide video exercises and educational material to patients with nonspecific low back pain during episodes of pain and functional disability. German statutory health insurance can reimburse DTC programs since 2019, but evidence on efficacy and reasonable pricing remains scarce. This paper presents a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate the efficacy and cost-utility of a DTC app against treatment as usual (TAU) in Germany. Objective: The aim of this study was to perform a PSA in the form of a Monte Carlo simulation based on the deterministic base case analysis to account for model assumptions and parameter uncertainty. We also intend to explore to what extent the results in this probabilistic analysis differ from the results in the base case analysis and to what extent a shortage of outcome data concerning quality-of-life (QoL) metrics impacts the overall results. Methods: The PSA builds upon a state-transition Markov chain with a 4-week cycle length over a model time horizon of 3 years from a recently published deterministic cost-utility analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations and a cohort size of 10,000 was employed to evaluate the cost-utility from a societal perspective. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were derived from Veterans RAND 6-Dimension (VR-6D) and Short-Form 6-Dimension (SF-6D) single utility scores. Finally, we also simulated reducing the price for a 3-month app prescription to analyze at which price threshold DTC would result in being the dominant strategy over TAU in Germany. Results: The Monte Carlo simulation yielded on average a euro135.97 (a currency exchange rate of EUR euro1=US $1.069 is applicable) incremental cost and 0.004 incremental QALYs per person and year for the unsupervised DTC app strategy compared to in-person physiotherapy in Germany. The corresponding incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) amounts to an additional euro34,315.19 per additional QALY. DTC yielded more QALYs in 54.96% of the iterations. DTC dominates TAU in 24.04% of the iterations for QALYs. Reducing the app price in the simulation from currently euro239.96 to euro164.61 for a 3-month prescription could yield a negative ICUR and thus make DTC the dominant strategy, even though the estimated probability of DTC being more effective than TAU is only 54.96%. Conclusions: Decision-makers should be cautious when considering the reimbursement of DTC apps since no significant treatment effect was found, and the probability of cost-effectiveness remains below 60% even for an infinite willingness-to-pay threshold. More app-based studies involving the utilization of QoL outcome parameters are urgently needed to account for the low and limited precision of the available QoL input parameters, which are crucial to making profound recommendations concerning the cost-utility of novel apps. KW - cost-utility analysis KW - cost KW - probabilistic sensitivity analysis KW - Monte Carlo simulation KW - low back pain KW - pain KW - economic KW - cost-effectiveness KW - Markov model KW - digital therapy KW - digital health app KW - mHealth KW - mobile health KW - health app KW - mobile app KW - orthopedic KW - QUALY KW - DALY KW - quality-adjusted life years KW - disability-adjusted life years KW - time horizon KW - veteran KW - statistics Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2196/44585 SN - 2291-5222 VL - 11 PB - JMIR Publications CY - Toronto ER -