TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Brietzke, Gilbert B.
A1  - Hinzen, Klaus-G.
T1  - Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany
JF  - Geophysical journal international
N2  - Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results.
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - forecasting
KW  - and prediction
KW  - Seismicity and tectonics
KW  - Statistical seismology
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt271
SN  - 0956-540X
SN  - 1365-246X
VL  - 195
IS  - 1
SP  - 684
EP  - 694
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Strader, Anne
A1  - Schneider, Max
A1  - Schorlemmer, Danijel
T1  - Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California
JF  - Geophysical journal international
KW  - Probabilistic forecasting
KW  - Statistical methods
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - fore-casting
KW  - and prediction
KW  - Statistical seismology
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx268
SN  - 0956-540X
SN  - 1365-246X
VL  - 211
SP  - 239
EP  - 251
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sharma, Shubham
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Zöller, Gert
T1  - Seismicity parameters dependence on main shock-induced co-seismic stress
JF  - Geophysical journal international
N2  - The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) and the Omori-Utsu (OU) law describe the earthquakes' energy release and temporal clustering and are thus of great importance for seismic hazard assessment. Motivated by experimental results, which indicate stress-dependent parameters, we consider a combined global data set of 127 main shock-aftershock sequences and perform a systematic study of the relationship between main shock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity patterns. For this purpose, we calculate space-dependent Coulomb Stress (& UDelta;CFS) and alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the surrounding of the main shocks. Our results indicate a clear positive correlation between the GR b-value and the induced stress, contrasting expectations from laboratory experiments and suggesting a crucial role of structural heterogeneity and strength variations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the OU parameters c and p systematically decrease for increasing stress changes. Our partly unexpected findings can have an important impact on future estimations of the aftershock hazard.
KW  - Earthquake hazards
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - forecasting
KW  - and prediction
KW  - Statistical seismology
KW  - b-value
Y1  - 2023
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad201
SN  - 0956-540X
SN  - 1365-246X
VL  - 235
IS  - 1
SP  - 509
EP  - 517
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  -