TY  - JOUR
A1  - De Frenne, Pieter
A1  - Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco
A1  - Coomes, David Anthony
A1  - Bäten, Lander
A1  - Versträten, Gorik
A1  - Vellend, Mark
A1  - Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus
A1  - Brown, Carissa D.
A1  - Brunet, Jörg
A1  - Cornelis, Johnny
A1  - Decocq, Guillaume M.
A1  - Dierschke, Hartmut
A1  - Eriksson, Ove
A1  - Gilliam, Frank S.
A1  - Hedl, Radim
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Hermy, Martin
A1  - Hommel, Patrick
A1  - Jenkins, Michael A.
A1  - Kelly, Daniel L.
A1  - Kirby, Keith J.
A1  - Mitchell, Fraser J. G.
A1  - Naaf, Tobias
A1  - Newman, Miles
A1  - Peterken, George
A1  - Petrik, Petr
A1  - Schultz, Jan
A1  - Sonnier, Gregory
A1  - Van Calster, Hans
A1  - Waller, Donald M.
A1  - Walther, Gian-Reto
A1  - White, Peter S.
A1  - Woods, Kerry D.
A1  - Wulf, Monika
A1  - Graae, Bente Jessen
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
T1  - Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming
JF  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
N2  - Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass-e.g., for bioenergy-may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.
KW  - climate change
KW  - forest management
KW  - understory
KW  - climatic debt
KW  - range shifts
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1311190110
SN  - 0027-8424
VL  - 110
IS  - 46
SP  - 18561
EP  - 18565
PB  - National Acad. of Sciences
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Loeffler, Jörg
A1  - Anschlag, Kerstin
A1  - Baker, Barry
A1  - Finch, Oliver-D.
A1  - Diekkrueger, Bernd
A1  - Wundram, Dirk
A1  - Schroeder, Boris
A1  - Pape, Roland
A1  - Lundberg, Anders
T1  - Mountain ecosystem response to global change
JF  - Erdkunde : archive for scientific geography
N2  - Mountain ecosystems are commonly regarded as being highly sensitive to global change. Due to the system complexity and multifaceted interacting drivers, however, understanding current responses and predicting future changes in these ecosystems is extremely difficult. We aim to discuss potential effects of global change on mountain ecosystems and give examples of the underlying response mechanisms as they are understood at present. Based on the development of scientific global change research in mountains and its recent structures, we identify future research needs, highlighting the major lack and the importance of integrated studies that implement multi-factor, multi-method, multi-scale, and interdisciplinary research.
KW  - High mountain ecology
KW  - arctic-alpine environments
KW  - climate change
KW  - land use and land cover change
KW  - tree line alteration
KW  - range shifts
KW  - altitudinal zonation
Y1  - 2011
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3112/erdkunde.2011.02.06
SN  - 0014-0015
VL  - 65
IS  - 2
SP  - 189
EP  - 213
PB  - Geographisches Inst., Univ. Bonn
CY  - Goch
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Pagel, Jörn
A1  - Schurr, Frank Martin
T1  - Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics
JF  - Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology
N2  - Aim The study and prediction of speciesenvironment relationships is currently mainly based on species distribution models. These purely correlative models neglect spatial population dynamics and assume that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment. This causes biased estimates of species niches and handicaps forecasts of range dynamics under environmental change. Here we aim to develop an approach that statistically estimates process-based models of range dynamics from data on species distributions and permits a more comprehensive quantification of forecast uncertainties.
 Innovation We present an approach for the statistical estimation of process-based dynamic range models (DRMs) that integrate Hutchinson's niche concept with spatial population dynamics. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework the environmental response of demographic rates, local population dynamics and dispersal are estimated conditional upon each other while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The method thus: (1) jointly infers species niches and spatiotemporal population dynamics from occurrence and abundance data, and (2) provides fully probabilistic forecasts of future range dynamics under environmental change. In a simulation study, we investigate the performance of DRMs for a variety of scenarios that differ in both ecological dynamics and the data used for model estimation.
 Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of considering dynamic aspects in the collection and analysis of biodiversity data. In combination with informative data, the presented framework has the potential to markedly improve the quantification of ecological niches, the process-based understanding of range dynamics and the forecasting of species responses to environmental change. It thereby strengthens links between biogeography, population biology and theoretical and applied ecology.
KW  - Biogeography
KW  - ecological forecasts
KW  - global change
KW  - hierarchical Bayesian statistics
KW  - long-distance dispersal
KW  - niche theory
KW  - process-based model
KW  - range shifts
KW  - spatial demography
KW  - species distribution modelling
Y1  - 2012
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00663.x
SN  - 1466-822X
VL  - 21
IS  - 2
SP  - 293
EP  - 304
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Malden
ER  -