TY - JOUR A1 - Thapa, Samudrajit A1 - Wyłomańska, Agnieszka A1 - Sikora, Grzegorz A1 - Wagner, Caroline E. A1 - Krapf, Diego A1 - Kantz, Holger A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei V. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories JF - New Journal of Physics N2 - Extensive time-series encoding the position of particles such as viruses, vesicles, or individualproteins are routinely garnered insingle-particle tracking experiments or supercomputing studies.They contain vital clues on how viruses spread or drugs may be delivered in biological cells.Similar time-series are being recorded of stock values in financial markets and of climate data.Such time-series are most typically evaluated in terms of time-averaged mean-squareddisplacements (TAMSDs), which remain random variables for finite measurement times. Theirstatistical properties are different for differentphysical stochastic processes, thus allowing us toextract valuable information on the stochastic process itself. To exploit the full potential of thestatistical information encoded in measured time-series we here propose an easy-to-implementand computationally inexpensive new methodology, based on deviations of the TAMSD from itsensemble average counterpart. Specifically, we use the upper bound of these deviations forBrownian motion (BM) to check the applicability of this approach to simulated and real data sets.By comparing the probability of deviations fordifferent data sets, we demonstrate how thetheoretical bound for BM reveals additional information about observed stochastic processes. Weapply the large-deviation method to data sets of tracer beads tracked in aqueous solution, tracerbeads measured in mucin hydrogels, and of geographic surface temperature anomalies. Ouranalysis shows how the large-deviation properties can be efficiently used as a simple yet effectiveroutine test to reject the BM hypothesis and unveil relevant information on statistical propertiessuch as ergodicity breaking and short-time correlations. KW - diffusion KW - anomalous diffusion KW - large-deviation statistic KW - time-averaged mean squared displacement KW - Chebyshev inequality Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/abd50e SN - 1367-2630 VL - 23 PB - Dt. Physikalische Ges. ; IOP CY - Bad Honnef ; London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Guggenberger, Tobias A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei V. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Fractional Brownian motion in superharmonic potentials and non-Boltzmann stationary distributions JF - Journal of physics : A, Mathematical and theoretical N2 - We study the stochastic motion of particles driven by long-range correlated fractional Gaussian noise (FGN) in a superharmonic external potential of the form U(x) proportional to x(2n) (n is an element of N). When the noise is considered to be external, the resulting overdamped motion is described by the non-Markovian Langevin equation for fractional Brownian motion. For this case we show the existence of long time, stationary probability density functions (PDFs) the shape of which strongly deviates from the naively expected Boltzmann PDF in the confining potential U(x). We analyse in detail the temporal approach to stationarity as well as the shape of the non-Boltzmann stationary PDF. A typical characteristic is that subdiffusive, antipersistent (with negative autocorrelation) motion tends to effect an accumulation of probability close to the origin as compared to the corresponding Boltzmann distribution while the opposite trend occurs for superdiffusive (persistent) motion. For this latter case this leads to distinct bimodal shapes of the PDF. This property is compared to a similar phenomenon observed for Markovian Levy flights in superharmonic potentials. We also demonstrate that the motion encoded in the fractional Langevin equation driven by FGN always relaxes to the Boltzmann distribution, as in this case the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is fulfilled. KW - anomalous diffusion KW - Boltzmann distribution KW - non-Gaussian distribution Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8121/ac019b SN - 1751-8113 SN - 1751-8121 VL - 54 IS - 29 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mutothya, Nicholas Mwilu A1 - Xu, Yong A1 - Li, Yongge A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Characterising stochastic motion in heterogeneous media driven by coloured non-Gaussian noise JF - Journal of physics : A, Mathematical and theoretical N2 - We study the stochastic motion of a test particle in a heterogeneous medium in terms of a position dependent diffusion coefficient mimicking measured deterministic diffusivity gradients in biological cells or the inherent heterogeneity of geophysical systems. Compared to previous studies we here investigate the effect of the interplay of anomalous diffusion effected by position dependent diffusion coefficients and coloured non-Gaussian noise. The latter is chosen to be distributed according to Tsallis' q-distribution, representing a popular example for a non-extensive statistic. We obtain the ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacements for this generalised process and establish its non-ergodic properties as well as analyse the non-Gaussian nature of the associated displacement distribution. We consider both non-stratified and stratified environments. KW - diffusion KW - anomalous diffusion KW - non-extensive statistics KW - coloured KW - noise KW - heterogeneous diffusion process Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8121/abfba6 SN - 1751-8113 SN - 1751-8121 VL - 54 IS - 29 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ritschel, Stefan A1 - Cherstvy, Andrey G. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Universality of delay-time averages for financial time series BT - analytical results, computer simulations, and analysis of historical stock-market prices JF - Journal of physics. Complexity N2 - We analyze historical data of stock-market prices for multiple financial indices using the concept of delay-time averaging for the financial time series (FTS). The region of validity of our recent theoretical predictions [Cherstvy A G et al 2017 New J. Phys. 19 063045] for the standard and delayed time-averaged mean-squared 'displacements' (TAMSDs) of the historical FTS is extended to all lag times. As the first novel element, we perform extensive computer simulations of the stochastic differential equation describing geometric Brownian motion (GBM) which demonstrate a quantitative agreement with the analytical long-term price-evolution predictions in terms of the delayed TAMSD (for all stock-market indices in crisis-free times). Secondly, we present a robust procedure of determination of the model parameters of GBM via fitting the features of the price-evolution dynamics in the FTS for stocks and cryptocurrencies. The employed concept of single-trajectory-based time averaging can serve as a predictive tool (proxy) for a mathematically based assessment and rationalization of probabilistic trends in the evolution of stock-market prices. KW - econophysics KW - geometric Brownian motion KW - time-series analysis Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ac2220 SN - 2632-072X VL - 2 IS - 4 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Grebenkov, Denis S. A1 - Metzler, Ralf A1 - Oshanin, Gleb T1 - Distribution of first-reaction times with target regions on boundaries of shell-like domains JF - New Journal of Physics (NJP) N2 - We study the probability density function (PDF) of the first-reaction times between a diffusive ligand and a membrane-bound, immobile imperfect target region in a restricted 'onion-shell' geometry bounded by two nested membranes of arbitrary shapes. For such a setting, encountered in diverse molecular signal transduction pathways or in the narrow escape problem with additional steric constraints, we derive an exact spectral form of the PDF, as well as present its approximate form calculated by help of the so-called self-consistent approximation. For a particular case when the nested domains are concentric spheres, we get a fully explicit form of the approximated PDF, assess the accuracy of this approximation, and discuss various facets of the obtained distributions. Our results can be straightforwardly applied to describe the PDF of the terminal reaction event in multi-stage signal transduction processes. KW - diffusion KW - first-passage time KW - first-reaction time KW - shell-like geometries KW - approximate methods Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/ac4282 SN - 1367-2630 VL - 2021 SP - 1 EP - 23 PB - IOP Publishing CY - London ET - 23 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mutothya, Nicholas Mwilu A1 - Xu, Yong A1 - Li, Yongge A1 - Metzler, Ralf A1 - Mutua, Nicholas Muthama T1 - First passage dynamics of stochastic motion in heterogeneous media driven by correlated white Gaussian and coloured non-Gaussian noises JF - Journal of physics. Complexity N2 - We study the first passage dynamics for a diffusing particle experiencing a spatially varying diffusion coefficient while driven by correlated additive Gaussian white noise and multiplicative coloured non-Gaussian noise. We consider three functional forms for position dependence of the diffusion coefficient: power-law, exponential, and logarithmic. The coloured non-Gaussian noise is distributed according to Tsallis' q-distribution. Tracks of the non-Markovian systems are numerically simulated by using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm and the first passage times (FPTs) are recorded. The FPT density is determined along with the mean FPT (MFPT). Effects of the noise intensity and self-correlation of the multiplicative noise, the intensity of the additive noise, the cross-correlation strength, and the non-extensivity parameter on the MFPT are discussed. KW - first passage KW - diffusion KW - non-Gaussian KW - correlated noise Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ac35b5 SN - 2632-072X VL - 2 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Grebenkov, Denis S. A1 - Metzler, Ralf A1 - Oshanin, Gleb T1 - A molecular relay race: sequential first-passage events to the terminal reaction centre in a cascade of diffusion controlled processes JF - New Journal of Physics (NJP) N2 - We consider a sequential cascade of molecular first-reaction events towards a terminal reaction centre in which each reaction step is controlled by diffusive motion of the particles. The model studied here represents a typical reaction setting encountered in diverse molecular biology systems, in which, e.g. a signal transduction proceeds via a series of consecutive 'messengers': the first messenger has to find its respective immobile target site triggering a launch of the second messenger, the second messenger seeks its own target site and provokes a launch of the third messenger and so on, resembling a relay race in human competitions. For such a molecular relay race taking place in infinite one-, two- and three-dimensional systems, we find exact expressions for the probability density function of the time instant of the terminal reaction event, conditioned on preceding successful reaction events on an ordered array of target sites. The obtained expressions pertain to the most general conditions: number of intermediate stages and the corresponding diffusion coefficients, the sizes of the target sites, the distances between them, as well as their reactivities are arbitrary. KW - diffusion KW - reaction cascade KW - first passage time Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/ac1e42 SN - 1367-2630 VL - 23 PB - IOP - Institute of Physics Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cherstvy, Andrey G. A1 - Vinod, Deepak A1 - Aghion, Erez A1 - Sokolov, Igor M. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Scaled geometric Brownian motion features sub- or superexponential ensemble-averaged, but linear time-averaged mean-squared displacements JF - Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics N2 - Various mathematical Black-Scholes-Merton-like models of option pricing employ the paradigmatic stochastic process of geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The innate property of such models and of real stock-market prices is the roughly exponential growth of prices with time [on average, in crisis-free times]. We here explore the ensemble- and time averages of a multiplicative-noise stochastic process with power-law-like time-dependent volatility, sigma(t) similar to t(alpha), named scaled GBM (SGBM). For SGBM, the mean-squared displacement (MSD) computed for an ensemble of statistically equivalent trajectories can grow faster than exponentially in time, while the time-averaged MSD (TAMSD)-based on a sliding-window averaging along a single trajectory-is always linear at short lag times Delta. The proportionality factor between these the two averages of the time series is Delta/T at short lag times, where T is the trajectory length, similarly to GBM. This discrepancy of the scaling relations and pronounced nonequivalence of the MSD and TAMSD at Delta/T << 1 is a manifestation of weak ergodicity breaking for standard GBM and for SGBM with s (t)-modulation, the main focus of our analysis. The analytical predictions for the MSD and mean TAMSD for SGBM are in quantitative agreement with the results of stochastic computer simulations. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.103.062127 SN - 2470-0045 SN - 2470-0053 VL - 103 IS - 6 PB - American Physical Society CY - College Park ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Varghese, Alan J. A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei A1 - Metzler, Ralf A1 - Sujith, Raman I. T1 - Capturing multifractality of pressure fluctuations in thermoacoustic systems using fractional-order derivatives JF - Chaos : an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science N2 - The stable operation of a turbulent combustor is not completely silent; instead, there is a background of small amplitude aperiodic acoustic fluctuations known as combustion noise. Pressure fluctuations during this state of combustion noise are multifractal due to the presence of multiple temporal scales that contribute to its dynamics. However, existing models are unable to capture the multifractality in the pressure fluctuations. We conjecture an underlying fractional dynamics for the thermoacoustic system and obtain a fractional-order model for pressure fluctuations. The data from this model has remarkable visual similarity to the experimental data and also has a wide multifractal spectrum during the state of combustion noise. Quantitative similarity with the experimental data in terms of the Hurst exponent and the multifractal spectrum is observed during the state of combustion noise. This model is also able to produce pressure fluctuations that are qualitatively similar to the experimental data acquired during intermittency and thermoacoustic instability. Furthermore, we argue that the fractional dynamics vanish as we approach the state of thermoacoustic instability. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0032585 SN - 1054-1500 SN - 1089-7682 VL - 31 IS - 3 PB - American Institute of Physics, AIP CY - Melville ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cherstvy, Andrey G. A1 - Safdari, Hadiseh A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Anomalous diffusion, nonergodicity, and ageing for exponentially and logarithmically time-dependent diffusivity BT - striking differences for massive versus massless particles JF - Journal of physics. D, Applied physics N2 - We investigate a diffusion process with a time-dependent diffusion coefficient, both exponentially increasing and decreasing in time, D(t)=D-0(e +/- 2 alpha t). For this (hypothetical) nonstationary diffusion process we compute-both analytically and from extensive stochastic simulations-the behavior of the ensemble- and time-averaged mean-squared displacements (MSDs) of the particles, both in the over- and underdamped limits. Simple asymptotic relations derived for the short- and long-time behaviors are shown to be in excellent agreement with the results of simulations. The diffusive characteristics in the presence of ageing are also considered, with dramatic differences of the over- versus underdamped regime. Our results for D(t)=D-0(e +/- 2 alpha t) extend and generalize the class of diffusive systems obeying scaled Brownian motion featuring a power-law-like variation of the diffusivity with time, D(t) similar to t(alpha-1). We also examine the logarithmically increasing diffusivity, D(t)=D(0)log[t/tau(0)], as another fundamental functional dependence (in addition to the power-law and exponential) and as an example of diffusivity slowly varying in time. One of the main conclusions is that the behavior of the massive particles is predominantly ergodic, while weak ergodicity breaking is repeatedly found for the time-dependent diffusion of the massless particles at short times. The latter manifests itself in the nonequivalence of the (both nonaged and aged) MSD and the mean time-averaged MSD. The current findings are potentially applicable to a class of physical systems out of thermal equilibrium where a rapid increase or decrease of the particles' diffusivity is inherently realized. One biological system potentially featuring all three types of time-dependent diffusion (power-law-like, exponential, and logarithmic) is water diffusion in the brain tissues, as we thoroughly discuss in the end. KW - anomalous diffusion KW - scaled Brownian motion KW - stochastic processes KW - nonstationary diffusivity KW - water diffusion in the brain KW - nonergodicity Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6463/abdff0 SN - 0022-3727 SN - 1361-6463 VL - 54 IS - 19 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER -