TY - JOUR A1 - Cammerer, Holger A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Verburg, Peter H. T1 - Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria) JF - Natural hazards : journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards N2 - Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario 'Overall Risk' to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario 'Overall Growth' (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions. KW - Flood risk KW - Land use change KW - Spatial policy KW - Socioeconomic scenarios KW - Mountain basins Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0280-8 SN - 0921-030X VL - 68 IS - 3 SP - 1243 EP - 1270 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Verburg, Peter H. A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Lindner, Marcus A1 - Verkerk, Pieter J. A1 - Moiseyev, Alexander A1 - Schrammeijer, Elizabeth A1 - Helming, John A1 - Tabeau, Andrzej A1 - Schulp, Catharina J. E. A1 - van der Zanden, Emma H. A1 - Lavalle, Carlo A1 - Batista e Silva, Filipe A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon T1 - A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales. KW - Land use change KW - Integrated modelling KW - Cross-scale interaction KW - Nature protection KW - Impact assessment Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 18 IS - 3 SP - 751 EP - 762 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER -