TY  - JOUR
A1  - Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
A1  - Shrestha, Pallav
A1  - Kadewere, Peter
A1  - Vormoor, Klaus Josef
T1  - Susceptibility of water resources and hydropower production to climate change in the tropics
BT  - the case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa
JF  - Hydrology : open access journal
N2  - The sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in the Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi model, which focuses on reservoir routing and lake water balance, has been developed and is interlinked between the two basins. Climate change projections from 20 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models for Africa based on two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 are used. An annual temperature increase of 1 degrees C decreases mean lake level and outflow by 0.3 m and 17%, respectively, signifying the importance of intensified evaporation for Lake Malawi's water budget. Meanwhile, a +5% (-5%) deviation in annual rainfall changes mean lake level by +0.7 m (-0.6 m). The combined effects of temperature increase and rainfall decrease result in significantly lower flows in the Shire River. The hydrological river regime may change from perennial to seasonal with the combination of annual temperature increase and precipitation decrease beyond 1.5 degrees C (3.5 degrees C) and -20% (-15%). The study further projects a reduction in annual hydropower production between 1% (RCP8.5) and 2.5% (RCP4.5) during 2021-2050 and between 5% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) during 2071-2100. The results show that it is of great importance that a further development of hydro energy on the Shire River should take into account the effects of climate change, e.g., longer low flow periods and/or higher discharge fluctuations, and thus uncertainty in the amount of electricity produced.
KW  - Lake Malawi Basin
KW  - Shire River Basin
KW  - lake water balance
KW  - climate change impacts in the tropics
KW  - hydropower generation
KW  - response surface analysis
KW  - sensitivity analysis
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7030054
SN  - 2306-5338
VL  - 7
IS  - 3
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  -