TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - König, Christian A1 - Malchow, Anne-Kathleen A1 - Kapitza, Simon A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Fandos, Guillermo T1 - Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos N2 - Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes. KW - adaptive management KW - biodiversity conservation KW - cost optimisation KW - ecosystem restoration KW - global change KW - predictive models Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05787 SN - 1600-0587 IS - 4 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - König, Christian A1 - Weigelt, Patrick A1 - Taylor, Amanda A1 - Stein, Anke A1 - Dawson, Wayne A1 - Essl, Franz A1 - Pergl, Jan A1 - Pyšek, Petr A1 - Kleunen, Mark van A1 - Winter, Marten A1 - Chatelain, Cyrille A1 - Wieringa, Jan J. A1 - Krestov, Pavel A1 - Kreft, Holger T1 - Source pools and disharmony of the world’s island floras JF - Ecography N2 - Island disharmony refers to the biased representation of higher taxa on islands compared to their mainland source regions and represents a central concept in island biology. Here, we develop a generalizable framework for approximating these source regions and conduct the first global assessment of island disharmony and its underlying drivers. We compiled vascular plant species lists for 178 oceanic islands and 735 mainland regions. Using mainland data only, we modelled species turnover as a function of environmental and geographic distance and predicted the proportion of shared species between each island and mainland region. We then quantified the over- or under-representation of families on individual islands (representational disharmony) by contrasting the observed number of species against a null model of random colonization from the mainland source pool, and analysed the effects of six family-level functional traits on the resulting measure. Furthermore, we aggregated the values of representational disharmony per island to characterize overall taxonomic bias of a given flora (compositional disharmony), and analysed this second measure as a function of four island biogeographical variables. Our results indicate considerable variation in representational disharmony both within and among plant families. Examples of generally over-represented families include Urticaceae, Convolvulaceae and almost all pteridophyte families. Other families such as Asteraceae and Orchidaceae were generally under-represented, with local peaks of over-representation in known radiation hotspots. Abiotic pollination and a lack of dispersal specialization were most strongly associated with an insular over-representation of families, whereas other family-level traits showed minor effects. With respect to compositional disharmony, large, high-elevation islands tended to have the most disharmonic floras. Our results provide important insights into the taxon- and island-specific drivers of disharmony. The proposed framework allows overcoming the limitations of previous approaches and provides a quantitative basis for incorporating functional and phylogenetic approaches into future studies of island disharmony. KW - assembly processes KW - biotic filtering KW - dispersal filtering KW - environmental filtering KW - generalized dissimilarity modelling KW - island disharmony KW - island syndromes KW - source regions KW - vascular plants Y1 - 2020 VL - 44 IS - 1 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lenzner, Bernd A1 - Magallon, Susana A1 - Dawson, Wayne A1 - Kreft, Holger A1 - König, Christian A1 - Pergl, Jan A1 - Pysek, Petr A1 - Weigelt, Patrick A1 - van Kleunen, Mark A1 - Winter, Marten A1 - Dullinger, Stefan A1 - Essl, Franz T1 - Role of diversification rates and evolutionary history as a driver of plant naturalization success JF - New phytologist : international journal of plant science N2 - Human introductions of species beyond their natural ranges and their subsequent establishment are defining features of global environmental change. However, naturalized plants are not uniformly distributed across phylogenetic lineages, with some families contributing disproportionately more to the global alien species pool than others. Additionally, lineages differ in diversification rates, and high diversification rates have been associated with characteristics that increase species naturalization success. Here, we investigate the role of diversification rates in explaining the naturalization success of angiosperm plant families. We use five global data sets that include native and alien plant species distribution, horticultural use of plants, and a time-calibrated angiosperm phylogeny. Using phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models, we analysed the effect of diversification rate, different geographical range measures, and horticultural use on the naturalization success of plant families. We show that a family's naturalization success is positively associated with its evolutionary history, native range size, and economic use. Investigating interactive effects of these predictors shows that native range size and geographic distribution additionally affect naturalization success. High diversification rates and large ranges increase naturalization success, especially of temperate families. We suggest this may result from lower ecological specialization in temperate families with large ranges, compared with tropical families with smaller ranges. KW - alien species KW - evolution KW - geographic distribution KW - invasion success KW - plant naturalization KW - range size Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17014 SN - 0028-646X SN - 1469-8137 VL - 229 IS - 5 SP - 2998 EP - 3008 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER -