TY - JOUR A1 - Krummenauer, Linda A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Prahl, Boris F. A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won’t save us JF - Scientific reports N2 - When inferring on the magnitude of future heat-related mortality due to climate change, human adaptation to heat should be accounted for. We model long-term changes in minimum mortality temperatures (MMT), a well-established metric denoting the lowest risk of heat-related mortality, as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress across 3820 cities. Depending on the combination of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways evaluated, by 2100 the risk to human health is expected to decline in 60% to 80% of the cities against contemporary conditions. This is caused by an average global increase in MMTs driven by long-term human acclimatisation to future climatic conditions and economic development of countries. While our adaptation model suggests that negative effects on health from global warming can broadly be kept in check, the trade-offs are highly contingent to the scenario path and location-specific. For high-forcing climate scenarios (e.g. RCP8.5) the maintenance of uninterrupted high economic growth by 2100 is a hard requirement to increase MMTs and level-off the negative health effects from additional scenario-driven heat exposure. Choosing a 2 degrees C-compatible climate trajectory alleviates the dependence on fast growth, leaving room for a sustainable economy, and leads to higher reductions of mortality risk. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99757-0 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 11 IS - 1 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Kriewald, Steffen A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Rybski, Diego A1 - Benton, Tim G. A1 - Fischer, Günther A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Urban food systems: how regionalization can contribute to climate change mitigation JF - Environmental science & technology N2 - Cities will play a key role in the grand challenge of nourishing a growing global population, because, due to their population density, they set the demand. To ensure that food systems are sustainable, as well as nourishing, one solution often suggested is to shorten their supply chains toward a regional rather than a global basis. While such regional systems may have a range of costs and benefits, we investigate the mitigation potential of regionalized urban food systems by examining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food transport. Using data on food consumption for 7108 urban administrative units (UAUs), we simulate total transport emissions for both regionalized and globalized supply chains. In regionalized systems, the UAUs' demands are fulfilled by peripheral food production, whereas to simulate global supply chains, food demand is met from an international pool (where the origin can be any location globally). We estimate that regionalized systems could reduce current emissions from food transport. However, because longer supply chains benefit from maximizing comparative advantage, this emission reduction would require closing yield gaps, reducing food waste, shifting toward diversified farming, and consuming seasonal produce. Regionalization of food systems will be an essential component to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees C in the future. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c02739 SN - 0013-936X SN - 1520-5851 VL - 54 IS - 17 SP - 10551 EP - 10560 PB - American Chemical Society CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Estimating investments in knowledge and planning activities for adaptation in developing countries: an empirical approach JF - Climate & development N2 - Costs of adaptation in the developing world have been mostly equated to those of climate proofing infrastructure under the assumption of unconstrained knowledge and planning capacities. To correct this, we introduce a cost-scaling methodology estimating sectoral investments to enhance the knowledge and planning capacities of countries based on an empirical collection of 385 climate-related projects. We estimate that circa 9.2 billion USD are required for financing knowledge and planning activities in developing countries in 2015. The agricultural and water sectors demand the higher investments ? 3.8 and 3.5 billion USD, respectively. Average investments between 2015 and 2050 are projected at 7 billion USD per year ? the largest fraction of which (4 billion) in Africa. Investments in this study were found to constitute approximately 40%, 20?60% and 5?15% of previous cost estimates to climate-proof infrastructure in the agricultural, water, and coastal sectors, respectively. The effort to finance the knowledge and planning capacities in developing countries is therefore not marginal relative to the costs of adapting infrastructure. The findings underline the potential of using empirical collections of climate-related projects for adaptation cost assessments as complementary to process and economic models. KW - Adaptation process KW - project database KW - administrative units KW - costs of infrastructure Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2018.1562865 SN - 1756-5529 SN - 1756-5537 VL - 11 IS - 9 SP - 755 EP - 764 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krummenauer, Linda A1 - Prahl, Boris F. A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Holsten, Anne A1 - Walther, Carsten A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Global drivers of minimum mortality temperatures in cities JF - The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man N2 - Human mortality shows a pronounced temperature dependence. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) as a characteristic point of the temperature-mortality relationship is influenced by many factors. As MMT estimates are based on case studies, they are sporadic, limited to data-rich regions, and their drivers have not yet been clearly identified across case studies. This impedes the elaboration of spatially comprehensive impact studies on heat-related mortality and hampers the temporal transfer required to assess climate change impacts. Using 400 MMTs from cities, we systematically establish a generalised model that is able to estimate MMTs (in daily apparent temperature) for cities, based on a set of climatic, topographic and socio-economic drivers. A sigmoid model prevailed against alternative model setups due to having the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and the smallest RMSE. We find the long-term climate, the elevation, and the socio-economy to be relevant drivers of our MMT sample within the non-linear parametric regression model. A first model application estimated MMTs for 599 European cities ( >100 000 inhabitants) and reveals a pronounced decrease in MMTs (27.8-16 degrees C) from southern to northern cities. Disruptions of this pattern across regions of similar mean temperatures can be explained by socio-economic standards as noted for central eastern Europe. Our alternative method allows to approximate MMTs independently from the availability of daily mortality records. For the first time, a quantification of climatic and non-climatic MMT drivers has been achieved, which allows to consider changes in socio-economic conditions and climate. This work contributes to the comparability among MMTs beyond location-specific and regional limits and, hence, towards a spatially comprehensive impact assessment for heat-related mortality. KW - City population KW - Minimum mortality temperature KW - Climate KW - Topography KW - Socio-economy KW - Sigmoid model Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.366 SN - 0048-9697 SN - 1879-1026 VL - 695 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kriewald, Steffen A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Ros, Anselmo Garcia Cantu A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Hungry cities: how local food self-sufficiency relates to climate change, diets, and urbanisation JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Using a newly developed model approach and combining it with remote sensing, population, and climate data, first insights are provided into how local diets, urbanisation, and climate change relates to local urban food self-sufficiency. In plain terms, by utilizing the global peri-urban (PU) food production potential approximately lbn urban residents (30% of global urban population) can be locally nourished, whereby further urbanisation is by far the largest pressure factor on PU agriculture, followed by a change of diets, and climate change. A simple global food transport model which optimizes transport and neglects differences in local emission intensities indicates that CO2 emissions related to food transport can be reduced by a factor of 10. KW - peri-urban agriculture KW - urbanization KW - dietary patterns KW - agricultural productivity KW - food systems KW - local food Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2d56 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 14 IS - 9 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Prahl, Boris F. A1 - Boettle, Markus A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Kropp, Jürgen A1 - Rybski, Diego T1 - Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities JF - Scientific Data N2 - The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.34 SN - 2052-4463 VL - 5 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Prahl, Boris F. A1 - Boettle, Markus A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Kropp, Jürgen A1 - Rybski, Diego T1 - Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 938 KW - sea-level rise KW - topographic data KW - climate-change KW - adaptation KW - scale KW - exposure KW - model Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459672 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 938 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Rybski, Diego A1 - Lucht, Wolfgang A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - A Systematic Study of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Interactions JF - Earths Future N2 - Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade-offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade-off. We rank synergies and trade-offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 (No poverty) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 (Responsible consumption and production) is the goal most commonly associated with trade-offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade-offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000632 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 5 SP - 1169 EP - 1179 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tekken, Vera A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Increasing pressure, declining water and climate change in north-eastern Morocco JF - Journal of coastal conservation : planning and management N2 - The coastal stretch of north-eastern Mediterranean Morocco holds vitally important ecological, social, and economic functions. The implementation of large-scale luxury tourism resorts shall push socio-economic development and facilitate the shift from a mainly agrarian to a service economy. Sufficient water availability and intact beaches are among the key requirements for the successful realization of regional development plans. The water situation is already critical, additional water-intense sectors could overstrain the capacity of water resources. Further, coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise is projected. Regional climate change is observable, and must be included in regional water management. Long-term climate trends are assessed for the larger region (Moulouya basin) and for the near-coastal zone at Saidia. The amount of additional water demand is assessed for the large-dimensioned Saidia resort; including the monthly, seasonal and annual tourist per capita water need under inclusion of irrigated golf courses and garden areas. A shift of climate patterns is observed, a lengthening of the dry summer season, and as well a significant decline of annual precipitation. Thus, current water scarcity is mainly human-induced; however, climate change will aggravate the situation. As a consequence, severe environmental damage due to water scarcity is likely and could impinge on the quality of local tourism. The re-adjustment of current management routines is therefore essential. Possible adjustments are discussed and the analysis concludes with management recommendations for innovative regional water management of tourism facilities. KW - North-eastern Morocco KW - Climate change KW - Coastal zone KW - Luxury tourism KW - Water demand KW - Adaptation Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-013-0234-7 SN - 1400-0350 VL - 17 IS - 3 SP - 379 EP - 388 PB - Springer CY - New York ER -