TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bryant, Seth
A1  - Davies, Evan
A1  - Sol, David
A1  - Davis, Sandy
T1  - The progression of flood risk in southern Alberta since the 2013 flood
JF  - Journal of flood risk management
N2  - After a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recent structural mitigation projects have reduced overall flood risk by 47% for this case study. These results demonstrate that the flood management revival in Southern Alberta has largely been successful at reducing flood risk; however, the gains are under threat from continued development and densification absent additional floodproofing regulations.
KW  - Calgary
KW  - depth-damage functions
KW  - expected annual damages
KW  - flood risk
KW  - model
KW  - property level protection measures
KW  - risk analysis
KW  - risk dynamics
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12811
SN  - 1753-318X
VL  - 15
IS  - 3
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Oxford
ER  -