TY - JOUR A1 - Vorpahl, Peter A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Märker, Michael A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris T1 - How can statistical models help to determine driving factors of landslides? JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Landslides are a hazard for humans and artificial structures. From an ecological point of view, they represent an important ecosystem disturbance, especially in tropical montane forests. Here, shallow translational landslides are a frequent natural phenomenon and one local determinant of high levels of biodiversity. In this paper, we apply weighted ensembles of advanced phenomenological models from statistics and machine learning to analyze the driving factors of natural landslides in a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador. We exclusively interpret terrain attributes, derived from a digital elevation model, as proxies to several driving factors of landslides and use them as predictors in our models which are trained on a set of five historical landslide inventories. We check the model generality by transferring them in time and use three common performance criteria (i.e. AUC, explained deviance and slope of model calibration curve) to, on the one hand, compare several state-of-the-art model approaches and on the other hand, to create weighted model ensembles. Our results suggest that it is important to consider more than one single performance criterion. Approaching our main question, we compare responses of weighted model ensembles that were trained on distinct functional units of landslides (i.e. initiation, transport and deposition zones). This way, we are able to show that it is quite possible to deduce driving factors of landslides, if the consistency between the training data and the processes is maintained. Opening the 'black box' of statistical models by interpreting univariate model response curves and relative importance of single predictors regarding their plausibility, we provide a means to verify this consistency. With the exception of classification tree analysis, all techniques performed comparably well in our case study while being outperformed by weighted model ensembles. Univariate response curves of models trained on distinct functional units of landslides exposed different shapes following our expectations. Our results indicate the occurrence of landslides to be mainly controlled by factors related to the general position along a slope (i.e. ridge, open slope or valley) while landslide initiation seems to be favored by small scale convexities on otherwise plain open slopes. KW - Landslides KW - Tropical montane forests KW - Statistical modeling KW - Model comparison KW - Artificial neuronal network KW - Classification trees KW - Random forests KW - Boosted regression trees KW - Generalized linear models KW - Multivariate adaptive regression splines KW - Maximum entropy method KW - Weighted model ensembles Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.007 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 239 IS - 7 SP - 27 EP - 39 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - Hayakawa, Yuichi A1 - Codilean, Alexandru T. A1 - Matsushi, Yuki A1 - Saito, Hitoshi A1 - Oguchi, Takashi A1 - Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki T1 - Japan's sediment flux to the Pacific Ocean revisited JF - Earth science reviews : the international geological journal bridging the gap between research articles and textbooks N2 - Quantifying volumes and rates of delivery of terrestrial sediment from island arcs to subduction zones is indispensable for refining estimates of the thickness of trench fills that may eventually control the location and timing of submarine landslides and tsunami-generating mega-earthquakes. Despite these motivating insights, knowledge about the rates of erosion and sediment export from the Japanese islands to their Pacific subduction zones remains patchy regardless of the increasing availability of highly resolved data on surface deformation, climate, geology, and topography. Traditionally, natural erosion rates across the island arc have been estimated from regression of topographic catchment metrics and reservoir sedimentation rates that were recorded over several years to decades. We review current research in this context, correct for a systematic bias in one of the most widely used predictions, and present new estimates of decadal to millennial-scale erosion rates of Japan's terrestrial inner forearc. We draw on several independent and unprecedented inventories of mass wasting, reservoir sedimentation, and concentrations of cosmogenic Be-10 in river sands. We find that natural Be-10-derived denudation rates of several mm yr(-1) in the Japanese Alps have been sustained over several centuries to millennia, and are, within error, roughly consistent with sediment yields inferred from artificial reservoir sedimentation. Local exceptions may likely result from release of sediment storage or regional landsliding episodes that trigger transient sediment pulses. Our synopsis further reveals that catchments draining Japan's eastern seaboard differ distinctly in their tectonic, lithological, topographic, and climatic characteristics between the Tohoku, Japanese Alps, and Nankai inner forearc segments, which is underscored by a marked asymmetric pattern of erosion rates along the island arc. Erosion rates are highest (up to at least 3 mm yr(-1)) in the Japanese Alps that mark the collision of two subduction zones, where high topographic relief, hillslope and bedrock-channel steepness foster rapid denudation by mass wasting. Comparable, if slightly lower, erosion rates characterise the Nankai inner forearc in southwest Japan, most likely due to higher typhoon-driven rainfall totals and variability rather than its high topographic relief. In contrast, our estimated erosion and flux rates are lowest in the Tohoku inner forearc catchments that feed sediment into the Japan Trench. We conclude that collisional mountain building of the Japanese Alps drives some of the highest erosion rates in the island arc despite similar uplift and precipitation controls in southwest Japan. We infer that, prior to extensive river damming, reservoir construction, and coastal works, the gross of Japan's total sediment export to the Pacific Ocean entered the accretionary margin of the Nankai Trough as opposed to the comparatively sediment-starved Japan Trench. Compared to documented contemporary rates of sediment flux from mountainous catchments elsewhere in the Pacific, the rivers draining Japan's inner forearc take an intermediate position despite high relief, steep slopes, very high seismicity, and frequent rainstorms. However, the average rates of millennial-scale denudation in the Japanese Alps particularly are amongst the highest reported worldwide. Local mismatches between these late Holocene and modern rates emphasise the anthropogenic fingerprint on sediment retention that may have significantly reduced the island arc's mass flux to its subduction zones, as is the case elsewhere in east and southeast Asia. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Erosion KW - Japan KW - Subduction zone KW - Landslides KW - Cosmogenic nuclides KW - Sediment budget Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.03.004 SN - 0012-8252 SN - 1872-6828 VL - 135 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Emberson, Robert A1 - Galy, Albert A1 - Hovius, Niels T1 - Combined effect of carbonate and biotite dissolution in landslides biases silicate weathering proxies JF - Geochimica et cosmochimica acta : journal of the Geochemical Society and the Meteoritical Society N2 - Long-term estimates of the dissolution of silicate rock are generally derived from a range of isotopic proxies, such as the radiogenic strontium isotope ratio (Sr-87/Sr-86), which are preserved in sediment archives. For these systems to fairly represent silicate weathering, the changes in isotopic ratios in terrestrial surface waters should correspond to changes in the overall silicate dissolution. This assumes that the silicate mineral phases that act as sources of a given isotope dissolve at a rate that is proportional to the overall silicate weathering. Bedrock landsliding exhumes large quantities of fresh rock for weathering in transient storage, and rapid weathering in these deposits is controlled primarily by dissolution of the most reactive phases. In this study, we test the hypothesis that preferential weathering of these labile minerals can decouple the dissolution of strontium sources from the actual silicate weathering rates in the rapidly eroding Western Southern Alps (WSA) of New Zealand. We find that rapid dissolution of relatively radiogenic calcite and biotite in landslides leads to high local fluxes in strontium with isotopic ratios that offer no clear discrimination between sources. These higher fluxes of radiogenic strontium are in contrast to silicate weathering rates in landslides that are not systematically elevated. On a mountain belt scale, radiogenic strontium fluxes are not coupled to volumes of recent landslides in large (>100 km(2)) catchments, but silicate weathering fluxes are. Such decoupling is likely due first to the broad variability in the strontium content of carbonate minerals, and second to the combination of radiogenic strontium released from both biotite and carbonate in recent landslides. This study supports previous work suggesting the limited utility of strontium isotopes as a system to study silicate weathering in the WSA. Crucially however, in settings where bedrock landsliding is a dominant erosive process there is potential for both random and systematic bias in isotope proxies if the most reactive phases exposed for dissolution by landslides disproportionately contribute to the proxy of choice. This clearly suggests that the isotopic composition of marine Sr is a proxy for periods of rapid mountain uplift and erosion rather than for the associated enhanced silicate weathering. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Landslides KW - Silicate weathering KW - Isotope proxy KW - New Zealand Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2017.07.014 SN - 0016-7037 SN - 1872-9533 VL - 213 SP - 418 EP - 434 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Masyagina, Oxana. V. A1 - Evgrafova, S. Yu A1 - Bugaenko, T. N. A1 - Kholodilova, V. V. A1 - Krivobokov, L. A1 - Korets, M. A. A1 - Wagner, Dirk T1 - Permafrost landslides promote soil CO2 emission and hinder C accumulation JF - The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man N2 - Landslides arc common in high-latitude forest ecosystems that have developed on permafrost. The most vulnerable areas in the permafrost territories of Siberia occur on the south-facing slopes of northern rivers, where they arc observed on about 20% of the total area of river slopes. Landslide disturbances will likely increase with climate change especially due to increasing summer-autumn precipitation. These processes are the most destructive natural disturbance agent and lead to the complete removal of pre-slide forest ecosystems (vegetation cover and soil). To evaluate postsliding ecosystem succession, we undertook integrated ecological research at landslides of different age classes along the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River and the Kochechum River (Tura, Krasnoyarsk region, Russia). Just after the event (at the one-year-old site), we registered a drop in soil respiration, a threefold lower microbial respiration rate, and a fourfold smaller mineral soil carbon and nitrogen stock at bare soil (melkozem) plots at the middle location of the site as compared with the non affected control site. The recovery of disturbed areas began with the re-establishment of plant cover and the following accumulation of an organic soil layer. During the 35-year succession (L1972), the accumulated layer (0 layer)at the oldest site contained similar C- and N stocks to those found at the control sites. However, the mineral soil C- and N stocks and the microbial biomass even of the oldest landslide area- did not reach the value of these parameters in control plots. Later, the soil respiration level and the eco-physiological status of soil microbiota also recovered due to these changes. This study demonstrates that the recovery after landslides in permafrost forests takes several decades. In addition, the degradation of permafrost due to landslides clearly hinders the accumulation of soil organic matter in the mineral soil. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.v. All rights reserved. KW - Landslides KW - Soil microorganisms KW - Permafrost KW - Soil C- and N stocks KW - Boreal ecosystems KW - Soil respiration Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.468 SN - 0048-9697 SN - 1879-1026 VL - 657 SP - 351 EP - 364 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rasigraf, Olivia A1 - Wagner, Dirk T1 - Landslides BT - an emerging model for ecosystem and soil chronosequence research JF - Earth science reviews : the international geological journal bridging the gap between research articles and textbooks N2 - Erosion by landslides is a common phenomenon in mountain regions around the globe, affecting all climatic zones. Landslides facilitate bedrock weathering, pedogenesis and ecological succession, being key drivers of biodiversity. Landslide chronosequences have long been used for studies of vegetation succession in initial ecosystems, but they further offer ideal model systems for studies of soil development and microbial community succession. In this review we synthesize the state of knowledge on the role of landslides in ecosystems, their influence on element cycles and interactions with biota. Further, we discuss feedback mechanisms between global warming, landslide activity and greenhouse gas emissions. In the view of increasing anthropogenic influence and climate change, soils are becoming a critical resource. Due to their ubiquity, landslide chronosequences have the potential to provide critical insights into soil development under different climates and thereby contribute to future soil restoration efforts. KW - Landslides KW - Greenhouse gas emissions KW - Landslide chronosequences KW - Soil KW - microbial community KW - Erosion KW - Biodiversity KW - Microbial processes KW - Climate KW - change Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104064 SN - 0012-8252 SN - 1872-6828 VL - 231 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER -