TY - GEN A1 - Spekkers, Matthieu A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - A comparative survey of the impacts of extreme rainfall in two international case studies T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flooding is assessed as the most important natural hazard in Europe, causing thousands of deaths, affecting millions of people and accounting for large economic losses in the past decade. Little is known about the damage processes associated with extreme rainfall in cities, due to a lack of accurate, comparable and consistent damage data. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on residential buildings and how affected households coped with these impacts in terms of precautionary and emergency actions. Analyses are based on a unique dataset of damage characteristics and a wide range of potential damage explaining variables at the household level, collected through computer-aided telephone interviews (CATI) and an online survey. Exploratory data analyses based on a total of 859 completed questionnaires in the cities of Munster (Germany) and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) revealed that the uptake of emergency measures is related to characteristics of the hazardous event. In case of high water levels, more efforts are made to reduce damage, while emergency response that aims to prevent damage is less likely to be effective. The difference in magnitude of the events in Munster and Amsterdam, in terms of rainfall intensity and water depth, is probably also the most important cause for the differences between the cities in terms of the suffered financial losses. Factors that significantly contributed to damage in at least one of the case studies are water contamination, the presence of a basement in the building and people's awareness of the upcoming event. Moreover, this study confirms conclusions by previous studies that people's experience with damaging events positively correlates with precautionary behaviour. For improving future damage data acquisition, we recommend the inclusion of cell phones in a CATI survey to avoid biased sampling towards certain age groups. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 640 KW - flood-affected residents KW - mitigation measures KW - private households KW - august 2002 KW - damage KW - Germany KW - preparedness KW - insurance KW - recovery KW - people Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418432 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 640 SP - 1337 EP - 1355 ER - TY - THES A1 - Biewald, Anne T1 - A dynamic life cycle model for Germany with unemployment uncertainty T1 - Ein dynamisch, stochastisches Lebenszyklusmodell für Deutschland mit Beschäftigungsunsicherheit N2 - This work analyzes the saving and consumption behavior of agents faced with the possibility of unemployment in a dynamic and stochastic life cycle model. The intertemporal optimization is based on Dynamic Programming with a backward recursion algorithm. The implemented uncertainty is not based on income shocks as it is done in traditional life cycle models but uses Markov probabilities where the probability for the next employment status of the agent depends on the current status. The utility function used is a CRRA function (constant relative risk aversion), combined with a CES function (constant elasticity of substitution) and has several consumption goods, a subsistence level, money and a bequest function. N2 - Diese Arbeit modelliert das Spar- und Konsumverhalten von Individuen in Deutschland mit einem Lebenszyklusmodell. Dabei hat das Modell zwei Besonderheiten, erstens trifft die Möglichkeit arbeitslos zu werden nicht jeden Agenten des Models mit der gleichen Wahrscheinlichkeit, sondern wird von Bildungsabschluss und dem Beschäftigungsstatus des Agenten beeinflußt und zweitens weicht die verwendete Nutzenfunktion von den Standardnutzenfunktionen ab und implementiert Vererbung, Geld, verschiedene Güter und Subsistenzlevel. Der Optimierungsalgorithmus basiert auf Dynamischer Programmierung. KW - Lebenszyklusmodell KW - Deutschland KW - Arbeitslosigkeit KW - Markov Wahrscheinlichkeiten KW - Sparraten KW - life cycle model KW - Germany KW - unemployment KW - markov chains KW - saving rates Y1 - 2008 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-33111 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Wutzler, Bianca A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1304 KW - risk management KW - climate change adaptation KW - floods KW - disaster risk reduction KW - Germany KW - precaution KW - emergency management Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-577350 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1304 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Campbell, Edwina S. T1 - Berlin : look to the world! N2 - In the spring 2004 issue of WeltTrends, Professor Gunther Hellmann made a „plea for offensive idealism“ and „against the power political resocialization of German foreign policy“. To a long-time outside observer of that foreign policy, this plea is unsurprising, but depressing. In keeping with Professor Hellmann’s own willingness, „notwendige Differenzierungen [zu] vernachlässigen zugunsten einer bewussten Zuspitzung“ I will comment on the aspects of his argument that strike an American colleague as particularly disturbing. KW - Deutschland KW - Außenpolitik KW - Resozialisierung KW - Germany KW - foreign policy KW - resocialisation Y1 - 2004 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-46591 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Karolewski, Ireneusz Pawel T1 - Challenges to the external identity making in the European Union JF - WeltTrends-Papiere N2 - Inhalt: Introduction: The problem at hand Approaches to EU’s external identity making Mechanisms of external identity making Theoretical approaches to the EU’s external identity making The EU’s external identity promotion The ENP policy instruments Conclusions References KW - Polen KW - Europäische Union KW - Deutschland KW - Integration KW - Vertiefung KW - Poland KW - European Union KW - Germany KW - Integration KW - Consolidation Y1 - 2010 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-62953 SN - 1864-0656 IS - 15 SP - 43 EP - 61 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Danken, Thomas T1 - Coordination of wicked problems T1 - Koordination vertrackter Probleme BT - comparing inter-departmental coordination of demographic change policies in five German states BT - Vergleich interministerieller Koordination der Demografiepolitik in fünf ostdeutschen Ländern N2 - The thesis focuses on the inter-departmental coordination of adaptation and mitigation of demographic change in East Germany. All Eastern German States (Länder) have set up inter-departmental committees (IDCs) that are expected to deliver joint strategies to tackle demographic change. IDCs provide an organizational setting for potential positive coordination, i.e. a joint approach to problem solving that pools and utilizes the expertise of many departments in a constructive manner from the very beginning. Whether they actually achieve positive coordination is contested within the academic debate. This motivates the first research question of this thesis: Do IDCs achieve positive coordination? Interdepartmental committees and their role in horizontal coordination within the core executive triggered interest among scholars already more than fifty years ago. However, we don’t know much about their actual importance for the inter-departmental preparation of cross-cutting policies. Until now, few studies can be found that analyzes inter-departmental committees in a comparative way trying to identify whether they achieve positive coordination and what factors shape the coordination process and output of IDCs. Each IDC has a chair organization that is responsible for managing the interactions within the IDCs. The chair organization is important, because it organizes and structures the overall process of coordination in the IDC. Consequently, the chair of an IDC serves as the main boundary-spanner and therefore has remarkable influence by arranging meetings and the work schedule or by distributing internal roles. Interestingly, in the German context we find two organizational approaches: while some states decided to put a line department (e.g. Department of Infrastructure) in charge of managing the IDC, others rely on the State Chancelleries, i.e. the center of government. This situation allows for comparative research design that can address the role of the State Chancellery in inter-departmental coordination of cross-cutting policies. This is relevant, because the role of the center is crucial when studying coordination within central government. The academic debate on the center of government in the German politico-administrative system is essentially divided into two camps. One camp claims that the center can improve horizontal coordination and steer cross-cutting policy-making more effectively, while the other camp points to limits to central coordination due to departmental autonomy. This debate motivates the second research question of this thesis: Does the State Chancellery as chair organization achieve positive coordination in IDCs? The center of government and its role in the German politic-administrative system has attracted academic attention already in the 1960s and 1970s. There is a research desiderate regarding the center’s role during the inter-departmental coordination process. There are only few studies that explicitly analyze centers of government and their role in coordination of cross-cutting policies, although some single case studies have been published. This gap in the academic debate will be addressed by the answer to the second research question. The dependent variable of this study is the chair organization of IDCs. The value of this variable is dichotomous: either an IDC is chaired by a Line department or by a State Chancellery. We are interested whether this variable has an effect on two dependent variables. First, we will analyze the coordination process, i.e. interaction among bureaucrats within the IDC. Second, the focus of this thesis will be on the coordination result, i.e. the demography strategies that are produced by the respective IDCs. In terms of the methodological approach, this thesis applies a comparative case study design based on a most-similar-systems logic. The German Federalism is quite suitable for such designs. Since the institutional framework largely is the same across all states, individual variables and their effect can be isolated and plausibly analyzed. To further control for potential intervening variables, we will limit our case selection to states located in East Germany, because the demographic situation is most problematic in the Eastern part of Germany, i.e. there is a equal problem pressure. Consequently, we will analyze five cases: Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt (line department) and Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony (State Chancellery). There is no grand coordination theory that is ready to be applied to our case studies. Therefore, we need to tailor our own approach. Our assumption is that the individual chair organization has an effect on the coordination process and output of IDCs, although all cases are embedded in the same institutional setting, i.e. the German politico-administrative system. Therefore, we need an analytical approach than incorporates institutionalist and agency-based arguments. Therefore, this thesis will utilize Actor-Centered Institutionalism (ACI). Broadly speaking, ACI conceptualizes actors’ behavior as influenced - but not fully determined - by institutions. Since ACI is rather abstract we need to adapt it for the purpose of this thesis. Line Departments and State Chancelleries will be modeled as distinct actors with different action orientations and capabilities to steer the coordination process. However, their action is embedded within the institutional context of governments, which we will conceptualize as being comprised of regulative (formal rules) and normative (social norms) elements. N2 - Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit interministerieller Koordination der Demografiepolitik in ostdeutschen Ländern. Alle ostdeutschen Länder haben interministerielle Arbeitsgruppen (IMAGs) eingerichtet, die von der jeweiligen Landesregierung beauftragt wurden, ressortübergreifende Strategien zur Bewältigung der Folgen des demografischen Wandels zu erarbeiten. IMAGs bieten potentiell einen organisatorischen Rahmen für das Gelingen positiver Koordination, also der ressortübergreifenden Bearbeitung interdependenter Problemstellungen. Ob sie jedoch tatsächlich positive Koordination herbeiführen, ist innerhalb der akademischen Debatte umstritten, was die Motivation für die erste Forschungsfrage darstellt: Führen IMAGs zu positiver Koordination? IMAGs haben bereits vor fünfzig Jahren akademische Aufmerksamkeit erregt. Dennoch ist über ihren Beitrag zur Vorbereitung ressortübergreifender Programme kaum etwas bekannt. Bislang haben nur wenige Arbeiten IMAGs in vergleichender Perspektive behandelt. Somit fehlt es an Wissen zu Determinanten des Koordinationsprozesses und –ergebnisses interministerieller Arbeitsgruppen. Jeweils einer Organisation obliegt die Federführung für die jeweilige IMAG. Die federführende Einheit kann erheblichen Einfluss ausüben, da sie den Koordinationsprozess strukturiert und organisiert. Interessanterweise haben die ostdeutschen Bundesländer zwei unterschiedliche organisatorische Modelle gewählt: Entweder obliegt die Federführung der entsprechenden IMAG einem Fachministerien oder der Staatskanzlei des entsprechenden Landes. Diese Situation erlaubt ein vergleichendes Untersuchungsdesign, das die Rolle von Staatskanzleien im Prozess ressortübergreifender Politikformulierung im politisch-administrativen System Deutschlands zu untersuchen erlaubt. Die akademische Debatte im Hinblick darauf lässt sich etwas zugespitzt in zwei Lager teilen: Während das erste Lager argumentiert, die Regierungszentrale könne horizontale Koordination verbessern und zur effektiveren Steuerung ressortübergreifenden Politikformulierung beitragen, rekurriert das zweite Lager auf die Dominanz des verfassungsrechtlichen Ressortprinzip und geht von einer klaren Begrenzung der Steuerungskapazität von Regierungszentralen aus. Dies motiviert die zweite Forschungsfrage der vorliegenden Arbeit: Erreicht Federführung durch Staatskanzleien positive Koordination in IMAGs? Obwohl die Regierungszentrale schon frühzeitig Gegenstand verwaltungs- und politikwissenschaftlicher Forschung war, finden sich kaum Arbeiten, die explizit die Rolle von Staatskanzlei im Prozess der Formulierung ressortübergreifender Programme thematisieren. Die unabhängige Variable dieser Untersuchung ist die federführende Organisation einer IMAG (Staatskanzlei oder Fachministerium). Die abhängigen Variablen sind einerseits der Koordinationsprozess innerhalb von IMAGs als auch das entsprechende Koordinationsergebnis in Form ressortübergreifender Strategien zur Bewältigung des demografischen Wandels. Das Untersuchungsdesign entspricht einem most-similar-systems Ansatz. So finden sich in allen untersuchten Fällen Koalitionsregierungen, ein ähnlicher Problemdruck in Hinblick auf demografische Entwicklungen sowie ein nahezu identischer institutionelle Rahmen für Koordination. Der Einfluss der unabhängigen auf die abhängigen Variablen kann damit plausiblen isoliert werden. Die Studie untersucht IMAGs in den Ländern Thüringen, Sachsen-Anhalt (Federführung bei einem Fachministerium), Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern und Sachsen (Federführung bei der Staatskanzlei). Die Arbeit nutzt den akteurszentrierten Institutionalismus als analytischen Rahmen. Dieser erlaubt Koordinationsprozesse sowohl in Hinblick auf ihre institutionelle Einbettung zu untersuchen, die Rolle intentional handelnder Akteure mit unterschiedlichen Handlungsorientierungen und -möglichkeiten aus dem Blick zu verlieren. KW - coordination KW - wicked problems KW - demographic change KW - interdepartmental committee KW - Germany KW - Koordination KW - vertrackte Probleme KW - demografischer Wandel KW - interministerielle Arbeitsgruppe KW - Deutschland Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-396766 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Semke, Lisa-Marie A1 - Tiberius, Victor T1 - Corporate Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities BT - An Exploratory Study T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm’s competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 128 KW - corporate foresight KW - dynamic capabilities KW - forecasting KW - Germany Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-474487 SN - 1867-5808 IS - 128 SP - 180 EP - 193 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016 BT - data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally, the results suggest that building materials as well as various building aspects, such as the existence of a shop window and the surroundings, might have an effect on the resulting damage. To verify and confirm the outcomes as well as to support future mitigation strategies, risk management and planning, more comprehensive and systematic data collection is necessary. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 653 KW - building damage KW - mai 29th KW - flow KW - vulnerability KW - 2016-origin KW - pathways KW - Germany KW - impacts KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418392 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 653 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jung, Janis Moritz A1 - Krahé, Barbara A1 - Busching, Robert T1 - Differential risk profiles for reactive and proactive aggression BT - a longitudinal latent profile analysis T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - This two-wave longitudinal study identified configurations of social rejection, affiliation with aggressive peers, and academic failure and examined their predictivity for reactive and proactive aggression in a sample of 1,479 children and adolescents aged between 9 and 19 years. Latent profile analysis yielded three configurations of risk factors, made up of a non-risk group, a risk group scoring high on measures of social rejection (SR), and a risk group scoring high on measures of affiliation with aggressive peers and academic failure (APAF). Latent path analysis revealed that, as predicted, only membership in the SR group at T1 predicted reactive aggression at T2 17 months later. By contrast, only membership in the APAF group at T1 predicted proactive aggression at T2. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 588 KW - reactive/proactive aggression KW - social rejection KW - aggressive peers KW - academic failure KW - childhood KW - adolescence KW - Germany Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-433229 SN - 1866-8364 IS - 588 SP - 71 EP - 84 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pichler, Edith T1 - Double emigration: geographical and cultural? BT - The participation of Italian women in the German labour market N2 - Already at the beginning of the fifties on the initiative of Italy, negotiations began between the Italian and German governments for the recruitment of migrant-workers, which ended in 1955 with a bilateral agreement between the two countries. Through this recruitment policy and because of the labour-market (Industry and Building) the Italian migration was composed prevalently of men. Female immigration happened in the setting of family reunification and less as an independent movement project. After years of stagnation of italian emigration in the eighties it may also be noted that, since the early nineties, there has been a revival of immigration to Germany. This and modernisation processes in Italy changed the gender composition of the Italian immigration flow to Germany: the distance between male and female immigration is decreasing. A peculiarity of the Italians in Germany is the low occupational participation of women in comparison with other women from EU countries. However, we could observe regional differences, which depend on the migration typologies and the dominating economic structure in the areas. The paper will analyse this different aspects (immigration-processes, migrant-typologies and labour-market participation) by female Italian migrants. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 78 KW - Migration KW - female KW - Germany KW - Italian KW - labour-market KW - inclusion/exclusion KW - Europa Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-395354 ER -