TY - THES A1 - Züllich, Gunda T1 - Migration and development in Senegal : a system dynamics analysis of the feedback relationships N2 - This thesis investigates the reciprocal relationship between migration and development in Senegal. Therewith, it contributes to the debate as to whether migration in developing countries enhances or rather impedes the development process. Even though extensive and controversial discussions can be found in the scientific literature regarding the impact of migration on development, research has scarcely examined the feedback relationships between migration and development. Science however agrees with both the fact that migration affects development as well as that the level of development in a country determines migration behaviour. Thus, both variables are neither dependent nor independent, but endogenous variables influencing each other and producing behavioural pattern that cannot be investigated using a static and unidirectional approach. On account of this, the thesis studies the feedback mechanisms existing between migration and development and the behavioural pattern generated by the high interdependence in order to be able to draw conclusions concerning the impact of changes in migration behaviour on the development process. To explore these research questions, the study applies the computer simulation method ‘System Dynamics’ and amplifies the simulation model for national development planning called ‘Threshold 21’ (T21), representing development processes endogenously and integrating economic, social and environmental aspects, using a structure that portrays the reasons and consequences of migration. The model has been customised to Senegal, being an appropriate representative of the theoretical interesting universe of cases. The comparison of the model generated scenarios - in which the intensity of emigration, the loss and gain of education, the remittances or the level of dependence changes - facilitates the analysis. The present study produces two important results. The first outcome is the development of an integrative framework representing migration and development in an endogenous way and incorporating several aspects of different theories. This model can be used as a starting point for further discussions and improvements and it is a fairly relevant and useful result against the background that migration is not integrated into most of the development planning tools despite its significant impact. The second outcome is the gained insights concerning the feedback relations between migration and development and the impact of changes in migration on development. To give two examples: It could be found that migration impacts development positively, indicated by HDI, but that the dominant behaviour of migration and development is a counteracting behaviour. That means that an increase in emigration leads to an improvement in development, while this in turn causes a decline in emigration, counterbalancing the initial increase. Another insight concerns the discovery that migration causes a decline in education in the short term, but leads to an increase in the long term, after approximately 25 years - a typical worse-before-better behaviour. From these and further observations, important policy implications can be derived for the sending and receiving countries. Hence, by overcoming the unidirectional perspective, this study contributes to an improved understanding of the highly complex relationship between migration and development and their feedback relations. N2 - Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht das wechselseitige Verhältnis zwischen Migration und Entwicklung im Senegal. Damit soll ein Beitrag zu der Debatte geleistet werden, ob Migration in Entwicklungsländern den Entwicklungsprozess eher fördert oder verhindert. Während die Frage nach der Auswirkung von Migration auf Entwicklung in der Literatur ausgiebig und kontrovers diskutiert wird, hat sich die Forschung bisher kaum den Rückkopplungen zwischen Migration und Entwicklung gewidmet, obwohl sich die Wissenschaft sowohl darüber einig ist, dass Migration den Entwicklungsprozess beeinflusst, als auch, dass der Entwicklungsstand eines Land das Migrationsverhalten bestimmt. Folglich sind beide Variablen weder abhängig, noch unabhängige, sondern endogene Variablen, die sich gegenseitig beeinflussen und damit Verhaltensweisen produzieren, deren Erforschung ein statischer, unidirektionaler Ansatz nicht gerecht wird. Deswegen fragt diese Arbeit nach den Rückwirkungsmechanismen, die zwischen Migration und Entwicklung existieren, und nach den Verhaltensweisen, die durch die hohe Interdependenz entstehen, um daraus Rückschlüsse auf die Frage ziehen zu können, welchen Einfluss Änderungen im Migrationsverhalten auf den Entwicklungsprozess haben. Um diese Forschungsfragen zu untersuchen wurde die Computersimulationsmethode System Dynamics genutzt und das Simulationsmodell zur nationalen Entwicklungsplanung, das ‚Threshold 21’ (T21), das die Entwicklungsprozesse endogen darstellt und soziale, ökonomische sowie ökologische Aspekte miteinander verknüpft, um eine Struktur erweitert, welche die Gründe und Konsequenzen von Migration abbildet. Dies wurde an den Senegal, ein angemessener Repräsentant der theoretisch interessanten Grundgesamtheit, angepasst. Der Vergleich der mit dem Modell generierten Szenarien, in denen die Intensität der Abwanderung, des Bildungsverlustes, des Bildungsgewinns, der Geldüberweisungen, oder der Abhängigkeit verändert wurden, ermöglichte die Analyse. Die Studie bringt zwei wichtige Ergebnisse hervor. Erstens entwickelt sie ein umfangreiches Modell, das Migration und Entwicklung endogen erklärt und verschiedene theoretische Ansatzpunkte enthält. Dies kann sowohl als Grundlage für weitere Diskussion und Verbesserungen genutzt werden, ist aber vor allem vor dem Hintergrund, dass Migration in den meisten Modellen zur Entwicklungsplanung trotz des relevanten Einflusses nicht integriert ist, ein wichtiges und nützliches Resultat. Zweitens konnte die Analyse des Verhaltens des Modells wichtige Erkenntnisse bezüglich der Rückwirkungsmechanismen zwischen Migration und Entwicklung und der Wirkung von Veränderungen in Migration auf Entwicklung erzielen. Um zwei Beispiele zu nennen, wurde herausgearbeitet, dass Migration sich positiv auf Entwicklung, gemessen am Human Development Index (HDI), auswirkt, dass es sich aber generell um ein sich ausgleichendes Verhalten handelt, da die positiven Einflüsse auf Entwicklung ihrerseits Migration verringern, wodurch die positiven Einflüsse wieder abnehmen. Ebenso konnte festgestellt werden, dass Migration für das Bildungsniveau zunächst eine Verschlechterung, später aber, nach ca. 25 Jahren, eine Verbesserung nach sich zieht. Aus diesen und weiteren Beobachtungen können wichtige Politikempfehlungen für die Sende- und Empfängerländer von Migration abgeleitet werden. Durch das Überwinden der unidirektionalen Betrachtungsweise trägt diese Arbeit somit zu einem besseren Verständnis des hoch komplexen und von Rückwirkungsmechanismen geprägten Verhältnisses zwischen Migration und Entwicklung bei. KW - Internationale Migration KW - Nachhaltige Entwicklung KW - Senegal KW - System Dynamics KW - Modellierung KW - International Migration KW - Sustainable Development KW - Senegal KW - System Dynamics KW - Modelling Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-57836 ER - TY - THES A1 - Zurell, Damaris T1 - Integrating dynamic and statistical modelling approaches in order to improve predictions for scenarios of environmental change T1 - Integration dynamischer und statistischer Modellansätze zur Verbesserung von Arealvorhersagen für Szenarien globalen Wandels N2 - Species respond to environmental change by dynamically adjusting their geographical ranges. Robust predictions of these changes are prerequisites to inform dynamic and sustainable conservation strategies. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) relate species’ occurrence records to prevailing environmental factors to describe the environmental niche. They have been widely applied in global change context as they have comparably low data requirements and allow for rapid assessments of potential future species’ distributions. However, due to their static nature, transient responses to environmental change are essentially ignored in SDMs. Furthermore, neither dispersal nor demographic processes and biotic interactions are explicitly incorporated. Therefore, it has often been suggested to link statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches in order to make more realistic predictions of species’ distributions for scenarios of environmental change. In this thesis, I present two different ways of such linkage. (i) Mechanistic modelling can act as virtual playground for testing statistical models and allows extensive exploration of specific questions. I promote this ‘virtual ecologist’ approach as a powerful evaluation framework for testing sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. Also, I employ such an approach to systematically assess the effects of transient dynamics and ecological properties and processes on the prediction accuracy of SDMs for climate change projections. That way, relevant mechanisms are identified that shape the species’ response to altered environmental conditions and which should hence be considered when trying to project species’ distribution through time. (ii) I supplement SDM projections of potential future habitat for black grouse in Switzerland with an individual-based population model. By explicitly considering complex interactions between habitat availability and demographic processes, this allows for a more direct assessment of expected population response to environmental change and associated extinction risks. However, predictions were highly variable across simulations emphasising the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. Furthermore, I identify data coverage of the environmental niche as a likely cause for contrasted range predictions between SDM algorithms. SDMs may fail to make reliable predictions for truncated and edge niches, meaning that portions of the niche are not represented in the data or niche edges coincide with data limits. Overall, my thesis contributes to an improved understanding of uncertainty factors in predictions of range dynamics and presents ways how to deal with these. Finally I provide preliminary guidelines for predictive modelling of dynamic species’ response to environmental change, identify key challenges for future research and discuss emerging developments. N2 - Das Vorkommen von Arten wird zunehmend bedroht durch Klima- und Landnutzungswandel. Robuste Vorhersagen der damit verbundenen Arealveränderungen sind ausschlaggebend für die Erarbeitung dynamischer und nachhaltiger Naturschutzstrategien. Habitateignungsmodelle erstellen statistische Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Vorkommen einer Art und relevanten Umweltvariablen und erlauben zügige Einschätzungen potentieller Arealveränderungen. Dabei werden jedoch transiente Dynamiken weitgehend ignoriert sowie demographische Prozesse und biotische Interaktionen. Daher wurden Vorschläge laut, diese statistischen Modelle mit mechanistischeren Ansätzen zu koppeln. In der vorliegenden Arbeit zeige ich zwei verschiedene Möglichkeiten solcher Kopplung auf. (i) Ich beschreibe den sogenannten ‚Virtuellen Ökologen’-Ansatz als mächtiges Validierungswerkzeug, in dem mechanistische Modelle virtuelle Testflächen bieten zur Erforschung verschiedener Probenahmedesigns oder statistischer Methoden sowie spezifischer Fragestellungen. Auch verwende ich diesen Ansatz, um systematisch zu untersuchen wie sich transiente Dynamiken sowie Arteigenschaften und ökologische Prozesse auf die Vorhersagegüte von Habitateignungsmodellen auswirken. So kann ich entscheidende Prozesse identifizieren welche in zukünftigen Modellen Berücksichtigung finden sollten. (ii) Darauf aufbauend koppele ich Vorhersagen von Habitateignungsmodellen mit einem individuen-basierten Populationsmodell, um die Entwicklung des Schweizer Birkhuhnbestandes unter Klimawandel vorherzusagen. Durch die explizite Berücksichtigung der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Habitat und demographischer Prozesse lassen sich direktere Aussagen über Populationsentwicklung und damit verbundener Extinktionsrisiken treffen. Allerdings führen verschiedene Simulationen auch zu hoher Variabilität zwischen Vorhersagen, was die Bedeutung von Sensitivitätsanalysen unterstreicht, um Unsicherheiten und Robustheit von Vorhersagen einzuschätzen. Außerdem identifiziere ich Restriktionen in der Datenabdeckung des Umweltraumes als möglichen Grund für kontrastierende Vorhersagen verschiedener Habitateignungsmodelle. Wenn die Nische einer Art nicht vollständig durch Daten beschrieben ist, kann dies zu unrealistischen Vorhersagen der Art-Habitat-Beziehung führen. Insgesamt trägt meine Arbeit erheblich bei zu einem besseren Verständnis der Auswirkung verschiedenster Unsicherheitsfaktoren auf Vorhersagen von Arealveränderungen und zeigt Wege auf, mit diesen umzugehen. Abschließend erstelle ich einen vorläufigen Leitfaden für Vorhersagemodelle und identifiziere Kernpunkte für weitere Forschung auf diesem Gebiet. KW - species distribution models KW - dynamic population models KW - climate change KW - prediction KW - uncertainty KW - Habitatmodelle KW - dynamische Populationsmodelle KW - Klimawandel KW - Vorhersage KW - Unsicherheit Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-56845 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zuppinger-Dingley, D. A1 - Schmid, Bernhard A1 - Chen, Y. A1 - Brandl, H. A1 - van der Heijden, M. G. A. A1 - Joshi, Jasmin Radha T1 - In their native range, invasive plants are held in check by negative soil-feedbacks JF - Ecosphere : the magazine of the International Ecology University N2 - The ability of some plant species to dominate communities in new biogeographical ranges has been attributed to an innate higher competitive ability and release from co-evolved specialist enemies. Specifically, invasive success in the new range might be explained by release from biotic negative soil-feedbacks, which control potentially dominant species in their native range. To test this hypothesis, we grew individuals from sixteen phylogenetically paired European grassland species that became either invasive or naturalized in new ranges, in either sterilized soil or in sterilized soil with unsterilized soil inoculum from their native home range. We found that although the native members of invasive species generally performed better than those of naturalized species, these native members of invasive species also responded more negatively to native soil inoculum than did the native members of naturalized species. This supports our hypothesis that potentially invasive species in their native range are held in check by negative soil-feedbacks. However, contrary to expectation, negative soil-feedbacks in potentially invasive species were not much increased by interspecific competition. There was no significant variation among families between invasive and naturalized species regarding their feedback response (negative vs. neutral). Therefore, we conclude that the observed negative soil feedbacks in potentially invasive species may be quite widespread in European families of typical grassland species. KW - biotic interactions KW - enemy release KW - invasive species KW - native range KW - naturalized species KW - plant invasions KW - plant-soil feedbacks KW - soil inoculation KW - soil sterilization Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00061.1 SN - 2150-8925 VL - 2 IS - 5 PB - Wiley CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zude, Manuela A1 - Pflanz, Michael A1 - Spinelli, Lorenzo A1 - Dosche, Carsten A1 - Torricelli, Alessandro T1 - Non-destructive analysis of anthocyanins in cherries by means of Lambert-Beer and multivariate regression based on spectroscopy and scatter correction using time-resolved analysis JF - Journal of food engineering N2 - In high-value sweet cherry (Prunus avium), the red coloration - determined by the anthocyanins content - is correlated with the fruit ripeness stage and market value. Non-destructive spectroscopy has been introduced in practice and may be utilized as a tool to assess the fruit pigments in the supply chain processes. From the fruit spectrum in the visible (Vis) wavelength range, the pigment contents are analyzed separately at their specific absorbance wavelengths. A drawback of the method is the need for re-calibration due to varying optical properties of the fruit tissue. In order to correct for the scattering differences, most often the spectral intensity in the visible spectrum is normalized by wavelengths in the near infrared (NIR) range, or pre-processing methods are applied in multivariate calibrations. In the present study, the influence of the fruit scattering properties on the Vis/NIR fruit spectrum were corrected by the effective pathlength in the fruit tissue obtained from time-resolved readings of the distribution of time-of-flight (DTOF). Pigment analysis was carried out according to Lambert-Beer law, considering fruit spectral intensities, effective pathlength, and refractive index. Results were compared to commonly applied linear color and multivariate partial least squares (PLS) regression analysis. The approaches were validated on fruits at different ripeness stages, providing variation in the scattering coefficient and refractive index exceeding the calibration sample set. In the validation, the measuring uncertainty of non-destructively analyzing fruits with Vis/NIR spectra by means of PLS or Lambert-Beer in comparison with combined application of Vis/NIR spectroscopy and DTOF measurements showed a dramatic bias reduction as well as enhanced coefficients of determination when using both, the spectral intensities and apparent information on the scattering influence by means of DTOF readings. Corrections for the refractive index did not render improved results. KW - Cherry KW - DTOF KW - Effective pathlength KW - Fruit maturity KW - Lambert-Beer KW - NIR KW - Non-invasive KW - Pigments KW - PLS KW - Ripeness KW - Sensor fusion KW - Spectroscopy KW - Time-resolved spectroscopy KW - TIRF KW - Vis KW - Scattering Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfoodeng.2010.09.021 SN - 0260-8774 VL - 103 IS - 1 SP - 68 EP - 75 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zolotov, O. V. A1 - Prokhorov, Boris E. A1 - Namgaladze, Alexander A. A1 - Martynenko, O. V. T1 - Variations in the total electron content of the ionosphere during preparation of earthquakes JF - Russian journal of physical chemistry : B, Focus on physics N2 - The morphological features in the deviations of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere from the background undisturbed state as possible precursors of the earthquake of January 12, 2010 (21:53 UT (16:53 LT), 18.46A degrees N, 72.5A degrees W, 7.0 M) in Haiti are analyzed. To identify these features, global and regional differential TEC maps based on global 2-h TEC maps provided by NASA in the IONEX format were plotted. For the considered earthquake, long-lived disturbances, presumably of seismic origin, were localized in the near-epicenter area and were accompanied by similar effects in the magnetoconjugate region. Both decreases and increases in the local TEC over the period from 22 UT of January 10 to 08 UT of January 12, 2010 were observed. The horizontal dimensions of the anomalies were similar to 40A degrees in longitude and similar to 20A degrees in latitude, with the magnitude of TEC disturbances reaching similar to 40% relative to the background near the epicenter and more than 50% in the magnetoconjugate area. No significant geomagnetic disturbances within January 1-12, 2010 were observed, i.e., the detected TEC anomalies were manifestations of interplay between processes in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere system. KW - TEC KW - ionospheric precursors of earthquakes KW - GPS Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1134/S1990793111030146 SN - 1990-7931 VL - 5 IS - 3 SP - 435 EP - 438 PB - Pleiades Publ. CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Malte A1 - Onea, Edgar T1 - Focus marking and focus interpretation JF - LINGUA N2 - The languages of the world exhibit a range of formal phenomena (e.g. accenting, syntactic reordering and morphological marking) that are commonly linked to the information-structural notion of focus. Crucially, there does not seem to be a one-to-one mapping between particular formal features (focus marking devices) and focus, neither from a cross-linguistic perspective, nor within individual languages. This raises the question of what is actually being expressed if we say that a constituent is focused in a particular language, and whether, or to what extent, the same semantic or pragmatic content is formally expressed by focus-marking across languages. This special issue addresses the question of focus and its grammatical realization from a number of theoretical and empirical perspectives. In this introductory article we elaborate on this question by making an explicit proposal about what we take to be the correct way of thinking about the information-structural category of focus and its formal realization. In the first part, we introduce a unified semantico-pragmatic perspective on focus in terms of alternatives and possible worlds. In the second part, we present a cursory cross-linguistic overview of focus marking strategies as found in the languages of the world. Finally, in the third part, we discuss the connection between the notion of focus, different pragmatic uses of focus and different focus marking strategies employed in the grammars of natural languages. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Focus KW - Alternatives KW - Contrast KW - Information structure Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lingua.2011.06.002 SN - 0024-3841 VL - 121 IS - 11 SP - 1651 EP - 1670 PB - ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV CY - AMSTERDAM ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Malte T1 - On the functional architecture of DP and the feature content of pronominal quantifiers in Low German JF - The journal of comparative Germanic linguistics N2 - The article investigates the functional architecture of complex pronominal quantifying expressions (PQEs) in Low German, such as jeder-een 'everyone' and keen-een 'no-one', which provide overt evidence for a Num-projection, situated between the NP- and DP-layer. The feature specification of Num as [+lattice] or [-lattice] is responsible for whether the DP denotes into the domain of atomic or mass/plural entities, respectively. In the case of complex PQEs, the syntactic Num-head hosts the overt element een 'a, one', which carries a [-lattice] feature, thus ensuring that the PQE ranges exclusively over the domain of atomic entities, but not mass or plural entities. The Num-head een differs from its simplex counterpart wat 'something', which is analyzed as an NP-proform with an underspecified [lattice]-feature. As a result, wat can range over atomic and mass domains alike. In the final part of the article, it is argued that wat is also underspecified for the operator feature [rel/wh], for which reason it can also function as an interrogative expression (what) and as a relative pronoun (which), respectively, depending on the syntactic context. Throughout the article, the Low German data are compared with relevant data from other German dialects and Germanic and Romance languages, pointing out similarities and differences in the syntactic structure and feature content of PQEs across these languages and dialects. KW - DP structure KW - NumP KW - Low German KW - Complex quantifiers KW - Lattice features KW - Interrogative/relative operator Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10828-011-9046-z SN - 1383-4924 VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 203 EP - 240 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Malte T1 - The grammatical expression of focus in West Chadic variation and uniformity in and across languages JF - Linguistics : an interdisciplinary journal of the language sciences N2 - The article provides an overview of the grammatical realization of focus in four West Chadic languages (Chadic, Afro-Asiatic). The languages discussed exhibit an intriguing crosslinguistic variation in the realization of focus, both among themselves as well as compared to European intonation languages. They also display language-internal variation in the formal realization of focus. The West Chadic languages differ widely in their ways of expressing focus, which range from syntactic over prosodic to morphological devices. In contrast to European intonation languages, the focus marking systems of the West Chadic languages are inconsistent in that focus is often not grammatically expressed, but these inconsistencies are shown to be systematic. Subject foci (contrastive or not) and contrastive nonsubject foci are always grammatically marked, whereas information focus on nonsubjects need not be marked as such. The absence of formal focus marking supports pragmatic theories of focus in terms of contextual resolution. The special status of focused subjects and contrastive foci is derived from the Contrastive Focus Hypothesis, which requires unexpected foci and unexpected focus contents to be marked as such, together with the assumption that canonical subjects in West Chadic receive a default interpretation as topics. Finally, I discuss certain focus ambiguities which are not attested in intonation languages, nor do they follow on standard accounts of focus marking, but which can be accounted for in terms of constraint interaction in the formal expression of focus. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1515/LING.2011.032 SN - 0024-3949 VL - 49 IS - 5 SP - 1163 EP - 1213 PB - De Gruyter Mouton CY - Berlin ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zimmermann, Malte T1 - The grammatical expression of focus in West Chadic BT - Variation and uniformity in and across languages N2 - The article provides an overview of the grammatical realization of focus in four West Chadic languages (Chadic, Afro-Asiatic). The languages discussed exhibit an intriguing crosslinguistic variation in the realization of focus, both among themselves as well as compared to European intonation languages. They also display language-internal variation in the formal realization of focus. The West Chadic languages differ widely in their ways of expressing focus, which range from syntactic over prosodic to morphological devices. In contrast to European intonation languages, the focus marking systems of the West Chadic languages are inconsistent in that focus is often not grammatically expressed, but these inconsistencies are shown to be systematic. Subject foci (contrastive or not) and contrastive nonsubject foci are always grammatically marked, whereas information focus on nonsubjects need not be marked as such. The absence of formal focus marking supports pragmatic theories of focus in terms of contextual resolution. The special status of focused subjects and contrastive foci is derived from the Contrastive Focus Hypothesis, which requires unexpected foci and unexpected focus contents to be marked as such, together with the assumption that canonical subjects in West Chadic receive a default interpretation as topics. Finally, I discuss certain focus ambiguities which are not attested in intonation languages, nor do they follow on standard accounts of focus marking, but which can be accounted for in terms of constraint interaction in the formal expression of focus. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 298 Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-93617 SP - 1163 EP - 1213 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zimmermann, Andreas A1 - Dorschner, Jonas T1 - Article 22 Y1 - 2011 SN - 978-0-19-954251-2 ER -