TY - JOUR A1 - Aichner, Bernhard A1 - Makhmudov, Zafar A1 - Rajabov, Iljomjon A1 - Zhang, Qiong A1 - Pausata, Francesco Salvatore R. A1 - Werner, Martin A1 - Heinecke, Liv A1 - Kuessner, Marie L. A1 - Feakins, Sarah J. A1 - Sachse, Dirk A1 - Mischke, Steffen T1 - Hydroclimate in the Pamirs Was Driven by Changes in Precipitation-Evaporation Seasonality Since theLast Glacial Period JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - The Central Asian Pamir Mountains (Pamirs) are a high-altitude region sensitive to climatic change, with only few paleoclimatic records available. To examine the glacial-interglacial hydrological changes in the region, we analyzed the geochemical parameters of a 31-kyr record from Lake Karakul and performed a set of experiments with climate models to interpret the results. delta D values of terrestrial biomarkers showed insolation-driven trends reflecting major shifts of water vapor sources. For aquatic biomarkers, positive delta D shifts driven by changes in precipitation seasonality were observed at ca. 31-30, 28-26, and 17-14 kyr BP. Multiproxy paleoecological data and modelling results suggest that increased water availability, induced by decreased summer evaporation, triggered higher lake levels during those episodes, possibly synchronous to northern hemispheric rapid climate events. We conclude that seasonal changes in precipitation-evaporation balance significantly influenced the hydrological state of a large waterbody such as Lake Karakul, while annual precipitation amount and inflows remained fairly constant. KW - climate KW - biomarker KW - geochemistry KW - modelling KW - paleoclimate KW - hydrology Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085202 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 46 IS - 23 SP - 13972 EP - 13983 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bürger, Gerd T1 - A counterexample to decomposing climate shifts and trends by weather types JF - International Journal of Climatology N2 - The literature contains a sizable number of publications where weather types are used to decompose climate shifts or trends into contributions of frequency and mean of those types. They are all based on the product rule, that is, a transformation of a product of sums into a sum of products, the latter providing the decomposition. While there is nothing to argue about the transformation itself, its interpretation as a climate shift or trend decomposition is bound to fail. While the case of a climate shift may be viewed as an incomplete description of a more complex behaviour, trend decomposition indeed produces bogus trends, as demonstrated by a synthetic counterexample with well-defined trends in type frequency and mean. Consequently, decompositions based on that transformation, be it for climate shifts or trends, must not be used. KW - analysis KW - climate KW - statistical methods Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5519 SN - 0899-8418 SN - 1097-0088 VL - 38 IS - 9 SP - 3732 EP - 3735 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Forte, Adam M. A1 - Whipple, Kelin X. A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo A1 - Rossi, Matthew W. T1 - Decoupling of modern shortening rates, climate, and topography in the Caucasus JF - Earth & planetary science letters N2 - The Greater and Lesser Caucasus mountains and their associated foreland basins contain similar rock types, experience a similar two-fold, along-strike variation in mean annual precipitation, and were affected by extreme base-level drops of the neighboring Caspian Sea. However, the two Caucasus ranges are characterized by decidedly different tectonic regimes and rates of deformation that are subject to moderate (less than an order of magnitude) gradients in climate, and thus allow for a unique opportunity to isolate the effects of climate and tectonics in the evolution of topography within active orogens. There is an apparent disconnect between modern climate, shortening rates, and topography of both the Greater Caucasus and Lesser Caucasus which exhibit remarkably similar topography along-strike despite the gradients in forcing. By combining multiple datasets, we examine plausible causes for this disconnect by presenting a detailed analysis of the topography of both ranges utilizing established relationships between catchment-mean erosion rates and topography (local relief, hillslope gradients, and channel steepness) and combining it with a synthesis of previously published low-temperature thermochronologic data. Modern climate of the Caucasus region is assessed through an analysis of remotely-sensed data (TRMM and MODIS) and historical streamflow data. Because along-strike variation in either erosional efficiency or thickness of accreted material fail to explain our observations, we suggest that the topography of both the western Lesser and Greater Caucasus are partially supported by different geodynamic forces. In the western Lesser Caucasus, high relief portions of the landscape likely reflect uplift related to ongoing mantle lithosphere delamination beneath the neighboring East Anatolian Plateau. In the Greater Caucasus, maintenance of high topography in the western portion of the range despite extremely low (<2-4 mm/y) modern convergence rates may be related to dynamic topography from detachment of the north-directed Greater Caucasus slab or to a recent slowing of convergence rates. Large-scale spatial gradients in climate are not reflected in the topography of the Caucasus and do not seem to exert any significant control on the tectonics or structure of either range. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - tectonics KW - erosion KW - climate KW - dynamic topography KW - orogenic processes Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.06.013 SN - 0012-821X SN - 1385-013X VL - 449 SP - 282 EP - 294 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ganguli, Poulomi A1 - Paprotny, Dominik A1 - Hasan, Mehedi A1 - Güntner, Andreas A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe JF - Earth's future N2 - Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods. KW - compound flood KW - storm surge KW - river floods KW - sea level rise KW - climate KW - change KW - Europe Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001752 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 8 IS - 11 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gold, Anna A1 - Gronewold, Ulfert A1 - Salterio, Steven E. T1 - Error management in audit firms: error climate, type, and originator JF - The accounting review : a journal of the American Accounting Association KW - error discovery KW - working paper review KW - error reporting KW - error management KW - climate KW - audit quality Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50592 SN - 0001-4826 SN - 1558-7967 VL - 89 IS - 1 SP - 303 EP - 330 PB - American Accounting Association CY - Sarasota ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Han, Fang A1 - Rydin, Catarina A1 - Bolinder, Kristina A1 - Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume A1 - Abels, Hemmo A. A1 - Koutsodendris, Andreas A1 - Zhang, Kexin A1 - Hoorn, Carina T1 - Steppe development on the Northern Tibetan Plateau inferred from Paleogene ephedroid pollen JF - Grana N2 - Steppe vegetation represents a key marker of past Asian aridification and is associated with monsoonal intensification. Little is, however, known about the origin of this pre-Oligocene vegetation, its specific composition and how it changed over time and responded to climatic variations. Here, we describe the morphological characters of Ephedraceae pollen in Eocene strata of the Xining Basin and compare the pollen composition with the palynological composition of Late Cretaceous and Paleocene deposits of the Xining Basin and the Quaternary deposits of the Qaidam Basin. We find that the Late Cretaceous steppe was dominated by Gnetaceaepollenites; in the transition from the Cretaceous to the Paleocene, Gnetaceaepollenites became extinct and Ephedripites subgenus Ephedripites dominated the flora with rare occurrences of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites; the middle to late Eocene presents a strong increase of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites; and the Quaternary/Recent is marked by a significantly lower diversity of Ephedraceae (and Nitrariaceae) compared to the Eocene. In the modern landscape of China, only a fraction of the Paleogene species diversity of Ephedraceae remains and we propose that these alterations in Ephedreaceae composition occurred in response to the climatic changes at least since the Eocene. In particular, the strong Eocene monsoons that enhanced the continental aridification may have played an important role in the evolution of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites triggering an evolutionary shift to wind-pollination in this group. Conceivably, the Ephedraceae/Nitrariaceae dominated steppe ended during the Eocene/Oligocene climatic cooling and aridification, which favoured other plant taxa. KW - pollen morphology KW - Eocene KW - climate KW - Ephedripites KW - Distachyapites KW - Gnetaceaepollenites KW - monsoon Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/00173134.2015.1120343 SN - 0017-3134 SN - 1651-2049 VL - 55 SP - 71 EP - 100 PB - Springer CY - Oslo ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Heidarzadeh, Ghasem A1 - Ballato, Paolo A1 - Hassanzadeh, Jamshid A1 - Ghassemi, Mohammad R. A1 - Strecker, Manfred T1 - Lake overspill and onset of fluvial incision in the Iranian Plateau: Insights from the Mianeh Basin JF - Earth & planetary science letters N2 - Orogenic plateaus represent a prime example of the interplay between surface processes, climate, and tectonics. This kind of an interplay is thought to be responsible for the formation, preservation, and, ultimately, the destruction of a typical elevated, low-internal relief plateau landscape. Here, we document the timing of intermontane basin filling associated with the formation of a low-relief plateau morphology, followed by basin opening and plateau-flank incision in the northwestern Iranian Plateau of the Arabia Eurasia collision zone. Our new U-Pb zircon ages from intercalated volcanic ashes in exposed plateau basin-fill sediments from the most external plateau basin (Mianeh Basin) document that the basin was internally drained at least between similar to 7 and 4 Ma, and that from similar to 5 to 4 Ma it was characterized by an similar to 2-km-high and similar to 0.5-km-deep lake (Mianeh paleolake), most likely as a result of wetter climatic conditions. At the same time, the eastern margin of the Mianeh Basin (and, therefore, of the Iranian Plateau) experienced limited tectonic activity, as documented by onlapping sediments and smoothed topography. The combination of high lake level and subdued topography at the plateau margin led to lake overspill, which resulted in the cutting of an similar to 1-km-deep bedrock gorge (Amardos) by the Qezel-Owzan River (QOR) beginning at similar to 4 Ma. This was associated with the incision of the plateau landscape and the establishment of fluvial connectivity with the Caspian Sea. Overall, our study emphasizes the interplay between surface and tectonic processes in forming, maintaining, and destroying orogenic plateau morphology, the transitional nature of orogenic plateau landscapes on timescales of 10(6) yr, and, finally, the role played by overspilling in integrating endorheic basins. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Iranian Plateau KW - basin evolution KW - overspill KW - incision KW - geomorphic analysis KW - climate Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.04.019 SN - 0012-821X SN - 1385-013X VL - 469 SP - 135 EP - 147 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hierro, Rodrigo A1 - Burgos Fonseca, Y. A1 - Ramezani Ziarani, Maryam A1 - Llamedo, P. A1 - Schmidt, Torsten A1 - de la Torre, Alejandro A1 - Alexander, P. T1 - On the behavior of rainfall maxima at the eastern Andes JF - Atmospheric Research N2 - In this study, we detect high percentile rainfall events in the eastern central Andes, based on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) with a spatial resolution of 0.25 × 0.25°, a temporal resolution of 3 h, and for the duration from 2001 to 2018. We identify three areas with high mean accumulated rainfall and analyze their atmospheric behaviour and rainfall characteristics with specific focus on extreme events. Extreme events are defined by events above the 95th percentile of their daily mean accumulated rainfall. Austral summer (DJF) is the period of the year presenting the most frequent extreme events over these three regions. Daily statistics show that the spatial maxima, as well as their associated extreme events, are produced during the night. For the considered period, ERA-Interim reanalysis data, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with 0.75° x0.75° spatial and 6-hourly temporal resolutions, were used for the analysis of the meso- and synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns. Night- and day-time differences indicate a nocturnal overload of northerly and northeasterly low-level humidity flows arriving from tropical South America. Under these conditions, cooling descending air from the mountains may find unstable air at the surface, giving place to the development of strong local convection. Another possible mechanism is presented here: a forced ascent of the low-level flow due to the mountains, disrupting the atmospheric stratification and generating vertical displacement of air trajectories. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in T-mode is applied to day- and night-time data during the maximum and extreme events. The results show strong correlation areas over each subregion under study during night-time, whereas during day-time no defined patterns are found. This confirms the observed nocturnal behavior of rainfall within these three hotspots. KW - South-America KW - rainy-season KW - part I KW - precipitation KW - TRMM KW - climate KW - summer KW - circulation KW - monsoon KW - systems Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104792 SN - 0169-8095 VL - 234 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Horton, Benjamin P. A1 - Khan, Nicole S. A1 - Cahill, Niamh A1 - Lee, Janice S. H. A1 - Shaw, Timothy A. A1 - Garner, Andra J. A1 - Kemp, Andrew C. A1 - Engelhart, Simon E. A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan T1 - Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey JF - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science N2 - Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. KW - projections KW - Greenland KW - consequences KW - climate Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5 SN - 2397-3722 VL - 3 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 8 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Juang, Linda P. A1 - Schachner, Maja A1 - Aral, Tuğçe A1 - Schwarzenthal, Miriam A1 - Kunyu, David Khisoni A1 - Löhmannsröben, Hanna T1 - Effects of a brief self-affirmation writing intervention among 7(th) graders in Germany BT - testing for variations by heritage group, discrimination experiences and classroom diversity climate JF - Social psychology of education : an international journal N2 - We tested whether a brief self-affirmation writing intervention protected against identity-threats (i.e., stereotyping and discrimination) for adolescents' school-related adjustment. The longitudinal study followed 639 adolescents in Germany (65% of immigrant descent, 50% female, M-age = 12.35 years, SDage = .69) from 7(th) grade (pre-intervention at T1, five to six months post-intervention at T2) to the end of 8(th) grade (one-year follow-up at T3). We tested for direct and moderated (by heritage group, discrimination, classroom cultural diversity climate) effects using regression and latent change models. The self-affirmation intervention did not promote grades or math competence. However, in the short-term and for adolescents of immigrant descent, the intervention prevented a downward trajectory in mastery reactions to academic challenges for those experiencing greater discrimination. Further, it protected against a decline in behavioral school engagement for those in positive classroom cultural diversity climates. In the long-term and for all adolescents, the intervention lessened an upward trajectory in disruptive behavior. Overall, the self-affirmation intervention benefited some aspects of school-related adjustment for adolescents of immigrant and non-immigrant descent. The intervention context is important, with classroom cultural diversity climate acting as a psychological affordance enhancing affirmation effects. Our study supports the ongoing call for theorizing and empirically testing student and context heterogeneity to better understand for whom and under which conditions this intervention may work. KW - Brief self-affirmation writing intervention KW - Adolescents of immigrant KW - descent KW - School-related adjustment KW - Classroom cultural diversity KW - climate KW - Germany Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11218-023-09789-9 SN - 1381-2890 SN - 1573-1928 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER -