TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kamprath, Martin
A1  - Mietzner, Dana
T1  - The impact of sectoral changes on individual competences: A reflective scenario-based approach in the creative industries
JF  - Technological forecasting & social change
N2  - Many foresight studies concentrate on technological foresight and its impact at the organizational level. However, often these studies overlook the soft factor of employee competences which is critical to adopting technological and organizational changes and to developing the necessary innovation capabilities. This study investigates the theoretical and methodological underdeveloped relationship between technological innovation and social initiated change and the impact on individual competences in a dynamic sector. The setting of our study is the turbulent creative industries as a whole, where creative and artistic expression merges with changing technological progress. In a scenario study we mainly conducted in 2010, we developed a scenario model for competences to combine individual competences with a scenario approach to investigate how competences are important to the sector shift or need to be enhanced in the future. We use primary qualitative data from expert interviews and workshops and secondary data from industry reports to identify thirty-seven influence factors. An influence matrix calculation and a cluster analysis are used to project three different scenarios presenting how future developments of the creative industries will influence the competences needed for creative occupations. Now, five years later, we reflect the accuracy of the developed scenarios via a comparison of today's situation with the situation in the scenarios. We discuss theoretical contributions for the foresight literature and practical implementations for the future of work in general, and in particular for the creative industries case. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
KW  - Creative industries
KW  - Creative economy
KW  - Digital
KW  - Convergence
KW  - Media
KW  - Entertainment
KW  - Scenario
KW  - Foresight
KW  - Futures studies
KW  - Technological impact
KW  - Competences
KW  - Skills
KW  - Work
KW  - Microfoundations
KW  - Human capital resource
KW  - Strategic human resources
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.011
SN  - 0040-1625
SN  - 1873-5509
VL  - 95
SP  - 252
EP  - 275
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - New York
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Nievas, Cecilia
A1  - Pilz, Marco
A1  - Prehn, Karsten
A1  - Schorlemmer, Danijel
A1  - Weatherill, Graeme
A1  - Cotton, Fabrice
T1  - Calculating earthquake damage building by building
BT  - the case of the city of Cologne, Germany
JF  - Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering
N2  - The creation of building exposure models for seismic risk assessment is frequently challenging due to the lack of availability of detailed information on building structures. Different strategies have been developed in recent years to overcome this, including the use of census data, remote sensing imagery and volunteered graphic information (VGI). This paper presents the development of a building-by-building exposure model based exclusively on openly available datasets, including both VGI and census statistics, which are defined at different levels of spatial resolution and for different moments in time. The initial model stemming purely from building-level data is enriched with statistics aggregated at the neighbourhood and city level by means of a Monte Carlo simulation that enables the generation of full realisations of damage estimates when using the exposure model in the context of an earthquake scenario calculation. Though applicable to any other region of interest where analogous datasets are available, the workflow and approach followed are explained by focusing on the case of the German city of Cologne, for which a scenario earthquake is defined and the potential damage is calculated. The resulting exposure model and damage estimates are presented, and it is shown that the latter are broadly consistent with damage data from the 1978 Albstadt earthquake, notwithstanding the differences in the scenario. Through this real-world application we demonstrate the potential of VGI and open data to be used for exposure modelling for natural risk assessment, when combined with suitable knowledge on building fragility and accounting for the inherent uncertainties.
KW  - Building exposure modelling
KW  - Seismic damage assessment
KW  - Scenario
KW  - earthquake
KW  - Seismic risk
KW  - Cologne
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01303-w
SN  - 1570-761X
SN  - 1573-1456
VL  - 20
IS  - 3
SP  - 1519
EP  - 1565
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  -