TY - JOUR A1 - de Brito, Mariana Madruga A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Marx, Andreas T1 - Near-real-time drought impact assessment BT - a text mining approach on the 2018/19 drought in Germany JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Contemporary drought impact assessments have been constrained due to data availability, leading to an incomplete representation of impact trends. To address this, we present a novel method for the comprehensive and near-real-time monitoring of drought socio-economic impacts based on media reports. We tested its application using the case of the exceptional 2018/19 German drought. By employing text mining techniques, 4839 impact statements were identified, relating to livestock, agriculture, forestry, fires, recreation, energy and transport sectors. An accuracy of 95.6% was obtained for their automatic classification. Furthermore, high levels of performance in terms of spatial and temporal precision were found when validating our results against independent data (e.g. soil moisture, average precipitation, population interest in droughts, crop yield and forest fire statistics). The findings highlight the applicability of media data for rapidly and accurately monitoring the propagation of drought consequences over time and space. We anticipate our method to be used as a starting point for an impact-based early warning system. KW - drought impacts KW - Germany KW - text analytics KW - newspaper KW - validation Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca SN - 1748-9326 VL - 15 IS - 10 PB - IOP Publ. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dormann, Carsten F. A1 - Schymanski, Stanislaus J. A1 - Cabral, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Chuine, Isabelle A1 - Graham, Catherine A1 - Hartig, Florian A1 - Kearney, Michael A1 - Morin, Xavier A1 - Römermann, Christine A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris A1 - Singer, Alexander T1 - Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy JF - Journal of biogeography N2 - Within the field of species distribution modelling an apparent dichotomy exists between process-based and correlative approaches, where the processes are explicit in the former and implicit in the latter. However, these intuitive distinctions can become blurred when comparing species distribution modelling approaches in more detail. In this review article, we contrast the extremes of the correlativeprocess spectrum of species distribution models with respect to core assumptions, model building and selection strategies, validation, uncertainties, common errors and the questions they are most suited to answer. The extremes of such approaches differ clearly in many aspects, such as model building approaches, parameter estimation strategies and transferability. However, they also share strengths and weaknesses. We show that claims of one approach being intrinsically superior to the other are misguided and that they ignore the processcorrelation continuum as well as the domains of questions that each approach is addressing. Nonetheless, the application of process-based approaches to species distribution modelling lags far behind more correlative (process-implicit) methods and more research is required to explore their potential benefits. Critical issues for the employment of species distribution modelling approaches are given, together with a guideline for appropriate usage. We close with challenges for future development of process-explicit species distribution models and how they may complement current approaches to study species distributions. KW - Hypothesis generation KW - mechanistic model KW - parameterization KW - process-based model KW - species distribution model KW - SDM KW - uncertainty KW - validation Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02659.x SN - 0305-0270 VL - 39 IS - 12 SP - 2119 EP - 2131 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Köhli, Markus A1 - Budach, Christian A1 - Schrön, Martin A1 - Oswald, Sascha T1 - Assessing the feasibility of a directional cosmic-ray neutron sensing sensor for estimating soil moisture T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive tool for measuring hydrogen pools such as soil moisture, snow or vegetation. The intrinsic integration over a radial hectare-scale footprint is a clear advantage for averaging out small-scale heterogeneity, but on the other hand the data may become hard to interpret in complex terrain with patchy land use. This study presents a directional shielding approach to prevent neutrons from certain angles from being counted while counting neutrons entering the detector from other angles and explores its potential to gain a sharper horizontal view on the surrounding soil moisture distribution. Using the Monte Carlo code URANOS (Ultra Rapid Neutron-Only Simulation), we modelled the effect of additional polyethylene shields on the horizontal field of view and assessed its impact on the epithermal count rate, propagated uncertainties and aggregation time. The results demonstrate that directional CRNS measurements are strongly dominated by isotropic neutron transport, which dilutes the signal of the targeted direction especially from the far field. For typical count rates of customary CRNS stations, directional shielding of half-spaces could not lead to acceptable precision at a daily time resolution. However, the mere statistical distinction of two rates should be feasible. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1228 KW - water-balance KW - quantification KW - calibration KW - validation Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-544229 SN - 1866-8372 SP - 75 EP - 92 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Köhli, Markus A1 - Budach, Christian A1 - Schrön, Martin A1 - Oswald, Sascha T1 - Assessing the feasibility of a directional cosmic-ray neutron sensing sensor for estimating soil moisture JF - Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems N2 - Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive tool for measuring hydrogen pools such as soil moisture, snow or vegetation. The intrinsic integration over a radial hectare-scale footprint is a clear advantage for averaging out small-scale heterogeneity, but on the other hand the data may become hard to interpret in complex terrain with patchy land use. This study presents a directional shielding approach to prevent neutrons from certain angles from being counted while counting neutrons entering the detector from other angles and explores its potential to gain a sharper horizontal view on the surrounding soil moisture distribution. Using the Monte Carlo code URANOS (Ultra Rapid Neutron-Only Simulation), we modelled the effect of additional polyethylene shields on the horizontal field of view and assessed its impact on the epithermal count rate, propagated uncertainties and aggregation time. The results demonstrate that directional CRNS measurements are strongly dominated by isotropic neutron transport, which dilutes the signal of the targeted direction especially from the far field. For typical count rates of customary CRNS stations, directional shielding of half-spaces could not lead to acceptable precision at a daily time resolution. However, the mere statistical distinction of two rates should be feasible. KW - water-balance KW - quantification KW - calibration KW - validation Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-75-2022 SN - 2193-0864 SN - 2193-0856 VL - 11 SP - 75 EP - 92 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hahn, Daniela A1 - Weck, Florian A1 - Witthöft, Michael A1 - Kühne, Franziska T1 - Assessment of counseling self-efficacy BT - validation of the German Counselor Activity self-efficacy scales-revised JF - Frontiers in psychology / Frontiers Research Foundation N2 - Background: Many authors regard counseling self-efficacy (CSE) as important in therapist development and training. The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure, reliability, and validity of the German version of the Counselor Activity Self-Efficacy Scales-Revised (CASES-R). Method: The sample consisted of 670 German psychotherapy trainees, who completed an online survey. We examined the factor structure by applying exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis to the instrument as a whole. Results: A bifactor-exploratory structural equation modeling model with one general and five specific factors provided the best fit to the data. Omega hierarchical coefficients indicated optimal reliability for the general factor, acceptable reliability for the Action Skills-Revised (AS-R) factor, and insufficient estimates for the remaining factors. The CASES-R scales yielded significant correlations with related measures, but also with therapeutic orientations. Conclusion: We found support for the reliability and validity of the German CASES-R. However, the subdomains (except AS-R) should be interpreted with caution, and we do not recommend the CASES-R for comparisons between psychotherapeutic orientations. KW - counselor activity self-efficacy scales KW - counseling self-efficacy KW - psychotherapy training KW - assessment KW - factor structure KW - validation Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.780088 SN - 1664-1078 VL - 12 PB - Frontiers Research Foundation CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kirsch, Fabian A1 - Rohlf, Helena L. A1 - Krahé, Barbara T1 - Measuring anger regulation in middle childhood through behavioural observation: a longitudinal validation JF - European journal of developmental psychology N2 - Learning to regulate anger is an important task in childhood development, as maladaptive anger regulation has been linked to a variety of problems, including aggression and social rejection. To assess anger regulation in situ, in a previous study we developed a behavioural observation measure and demonstrated its cross-sectional construct and criterion validity in a sample of 599 children with a mean age of 8.1years. The present study further validated the measure by demonstrating its predictive validity. About 10months after the behavioural observation, participants were asked to imagine two anger-eliciting situations and report what they would do to get rid of their anger. Observed anger regulation strategies at T1 correlated significantly with self-reported regulatory behaviour at T2, suggesting that the behavioural observation measure is an ecologically valid approach for assessing anger regulation in middle childhood. KW - Anger regulation KW - observation KW - childhood KW - validation KW - longitudinal study Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/17405629.2015.1101375 SN - 1740-5629 SN - 1740-5610 VL - 12 IS - 6 SP - 718 EP - 727 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - GEN A1 - Krause, Hannes-Vincent A1 - Baum, Katharina A1 - Baumann, Annika A1 - Krasnova, Hanna T1 - Unifying the detrimental and beneficial effects of social network site use on self-esteem BT - a systematic literature review T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Previous research offers equivocal results regarding the effect of social networking site use on individuals’ self-esteem. We con- duct a systematic literature review to examine the existing litera- ture and develop a theoretical framework in order to classify the results. The framework proposes that self-esteem is affected by three distinct processes that incorporate self-evaluative informa- tion: social comparison processes, social feedback processing, and self-reflective processes. Due to particularities of the social networking site environment, the accessibility and quality of self- evaluative information is altered, which leads to online-specific effects on users’ self-esteem. Results of the reviewed studies suggest that when a social networking site is used to compare oneself with others, it mostly results in decreases in users’ self- esteem. On the other hand, receiving positive social feedback from others or using these platforms to reflect on one’s own self is mainly associated with benefits for users’ self-esteem. Nevertheless, inter-individual differences and the specific activ- ities performed by users on these platforms should be considered when predicting individual effects. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 567 KW - facebook use KW - life satisfaction KW - college-students KW - body-image KW - time spent KW - media use KW - online KW - validation KW - friends KW - impact Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-435037 SN - 1866-8364 IS - 567 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Botto, Anna A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO JF - Risk analysis N2 - Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. KW - Damage modeling KW - multiparameter KW - probabilistic KW - uncertainty KW - validation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12650 SN - 0272-4332 SN - 1539-6924 VL - 37 IS - 4 SP - 774 EP - 787 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kulawiak, Pawel R. A1 - Wilbert, Jürgen A1 - Schlack, Robert A1 - Börnert-Ringleb, Moritz T1 - Prediction of child and adolescent outcomes with broadband and narrowband dimensions of internalizing and externalizing behavior using the child and adolescent version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) is a frequently used screening instrument for behavioral problems in children and adolescents. There is an ongoing controversy—not only in educational research—regarding the factor structure of the SDQ. Research results speak for a 3-factor as well as a 5-factor structure. The narrowband scales (5-factor structure) can be combined into broadband scales (3-factor structure). The question remains: Which factors (narrowband vs. broadband) are better predictors? With the prediction of child and adolescent outcomes (academic grades, well-being, and self-belief), we evaluated whether the broadband scales of internalizing and externalizing behavior (3-factor structure) or narrowband scales of behavior (5-factor structure) are better suited for predictive purposes in a cross-sectional study setting. The sample includes students in grades 5 to 9 (N = 4642) from the representative German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS study). The results of model comparisons (broadband scale vs. narrowband scales) did not support the superiority of the broadband scales with regard to the prediction of child and adolescent outcomes. There is no benefit from subsuming narrowband scales (5-factor structure) into broadband scales (3-factor structure). The application of narrowband scales, providing a more differentiated picture of students’ academic and social situation, was more appropriate for predictive purposes. For the purpose of identifying students at risk of struggling in educational contexts, using the set of narrowband dimensions of behavior seems to be more suitable. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 669 KW - psychometric properties KW - developmental trajectories KW - emotional difficulties KW - academic-achievement KW - conduct problems KW - parent KW - sdq KW - hyperactivity KW - comorbidity KW - validation Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-485156 SN - 1866-8364 IS - 669 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kulawiak, Pawel R. A1 - Wilbert, Jürgen A1 - Schlack, Robert A1 - Börnert-Ringleb, Moritz T1 - Prediction of child and adolescent outcomes with broadband and narrowband dimensions of internalizing and externalizing behavior using the child and adolescent version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire JF - PLOS ONE N2 - The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) is a frequently used screening instrument for behavioral problems in children and adolescents. There is an ongoing controversy—not only in educational research—regarding the factor structure of the SDQ. Research results speak for a 3-factor as well as a 5-factor structure. The narrowband scales (5-factor structure) can be combined into broadband scales (3-factor structure). The question remains: Which factors (narrowband vs. broadband) are better predictors? With the prediction of child and adolescent outcomes (academic grades, well-being, and self-belief), we evaluated whether the broadband scales of internalizing and externalizing behavior (3-factor structure) or narrowband scales of behavior (5-factor structure) are better suited for predictive purposes in a cross-sectional study setting. The sample includes students in grades 5 to 9 (N = 4642) from the representative German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS study). The results of model comparisons (broadband scale vs. narrowband scales) did not support the superiority of the broadband scales with regard to the prediction of child and adolescent outcomes. There is no benefit from subsuming narrowband scales (5-factor structure) into broadband scales (3-factor structure). The application of narrowband scales, providing a more differentiated picture of students’ academic and social situation, was more appropriate for predictive purposes. For the purpose of identifying students at risk of struggling in educational contexts, using the set of narrowband dimensions of behavior seems to be more suitable. KW - psychometric properties KW - developmental trajectories KW - emotional difficulties KW - academic-achievement KW - conduct problems KW - parent KW - sdq KW - hyperactivity KW - comorbidity KW - validation Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240312 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 15 IS - 10 PB - PLOS CY - San Francisco, California ER -