TY - GEN A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Izhitskiy, Alexander T1 - Coupling physically based and data-driven models for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature – the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018). T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 703 KW - climate-change KW - river-basin KW - runoff KW - catchments KW - Asia Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427873 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 703 SP - 151 EP - 158 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Baumbach, Lukas A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan Frederik A1 - Mittermeier, Magdalena A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 642 KW - event coincidence analysis KW - Central Great-Plains KW - climate-change KW - precipitation extremes KW - weather extremes KW - soil-moisture KW - time-series KW - NDVI KW - phenology KW - trends Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418018 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 642 SP - 4891 EP - 4903 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Biskaborn, Boris A1 - Lanckman, J.-P. A1 - Lantuit, Hugues A1 - Elger, K. A1 - Streletskiy, Dmitry A1 - Cable, W. L. A1 - Romanovsky, Vladimir E. T1 - The new database of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) data from Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of GTN-P is to establish an early warning system for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we introduce the GTN-P database and perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata to identify and quantify the spatial gaps in the site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the data management system in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies based on national correspondents. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi tessellation analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides a potential method to locate additional permafrost research sites by improving the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations, which are illustrated with maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high representation of areas with smaller expected temperature rise but a lower number of sites within Arctic areas where climate models project extreme temperature increase. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 523 KW - international polar year KW - thermal state KW - climate-change KW - active-layer KW - carbon Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409612 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 523 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Biskaborn, Boris A1 - Smith, Sharon L. A1 - Noetzli, Jeannette A1 - Matthes, Heidrun A1 - Vieira, Gonçalo A1 - Streletskiy, Dmitry A. A1 - Schoeneich, Philippe A1 - Romanovsky, Vladimir E. A1 - Lewkowicz, Antoni G. A1 - Abramov, Andrey A1 - Allard, Michel A1 - Boike, Julia A1 - Cable, William L. A1 - Christiansen, Hanne H. A1 - Delaloye, Reynald A1 - Diekmann, Bernhard A1 - Drozdov, Dmitry A1 - Etzelmüller, Bernd A1 - Große, Guido A1 - Guglielmin, Mauro A1 - Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas A1 - Isaksen, Ketil A1 - Ishikawa, Mamoru A1 - Johansson, Margareta A1 - Joo, Anseok A1 - Kaverin, Dmitry A1 - Kholodov, Alexander A1 - Konstantinov, Pavel A1 - Kröger, Tim A1 - Lambiel, Christophe A1 - Lanckman, Jean-Pierre A1 - Luo, Dongliang A1 - Malkova, Galina A1 - Meiklejohn, Ian A1 - Moskalenko, Natalia A1 - Oliva, Marc A1 - Phillips, Marcia A1 - Ramos, Miguel A1 - Sannel, A. Britta K. A1 - Sergeev, Dmitrii A1 - Seybold, Cathy A1 - Skryabin, Pavel A1 - Vasiliev, Alexander A1 - Wu, Qingbai A1 - Yoshikawa, Kenji A1 - Zheleznyak, Mikhail A1 - Lantuit, Hugues T1 - Permafrost is warming at a global scale T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 669 KW - seasonal snow cover KW - thermal state KW - climate-change KW - activ-layer KW - Antarctic Peninsula KW - stability Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425341 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 669 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Boettle, Markus A1 - Rybski, Diego A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence BT - a point process perspective on coastal flood damage T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 559 KW - climate-change KW - North-Sea KW - extremes KW - costs KW - 21st-Century KW - adaptation KW - statistics KW - impacts KW - trends KW - cities Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412405 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 559 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Cohen, Abby A1 - Campisano, Christopher A1 - Arrowsmith, J. Ramon A1 - Asrat, Asfawossen A1 - Behrensmeyer, A. K. A1 - Deino, A. A1 - Feibel, C. A1 - Hill, A. A1 - Johnson, R. A1 - Kingston, J. A1 - Lamb, Henry F. A1 - Lowenstein, T. A1 - Noren, A. A1 - Olago, D. A1 - Owen, Richard Bernhart A1 - Potts, R. A1 - Reed, Kate A1 - Renaut, R. A1 - Schäbitz, F. A1 - Tiercelin, J.-J. A1 - Trauth, Martin H. A1 - Wynn, J. A1 - Ivory, S. A1 - Brady, K. A1 - O’Grady, R. A1 - Rodysill, J. A1 - Githiri, J. A1 - Russell, Joellen A1 - Foerster, Verena A1 - Dommain, René A1 - Rucina, J. S. A1 - Deocampo, D. A1 - Russell, J. A1 - Billingsley, A. A1 - Beck, C. A1 - Dorenbeck, G. A1 - Dullo, L. A1 - Feary, D. A1 - Garello, D. A1 - Gromig, R. A1 - Johnson, T. A1 - Junginger, Annett A1 - Karanja, M. A1 - Kimburi, E. A1 - Mbuthia, A. A1 - McCartney, Tannis A1 - McNulty, E. A1 - Muiruri, V. A1 - Nambiro, E. A1 - Negash, E. W. A1 - Njagi, D. A1 - Wilson, J. N. A1 - Rabideaux, N. A1 - Raub, Timothy A1 - Sier, Mark Jan A1 - Smith, P. A1 - Urban, J. A1 - Warren, M. A1 - Yadeta, M. A1 - Yost, Chad A1 - Zinaye, B. T1 - The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project BT - inferring the environmental context of human evolution from eastern African rift lake deposits T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The role that climate and environmental history may have played in influencing human evolution has been the focus of considerable interest and controversy among paleoanthropologists for decades. Prior attempts to understand the environmental history side of this equation have centered around the study of outcrop sediments and fossils adjacent to where fossil hominins (ancestors or close relatives of modern humans) are found, or from the study of deep sea drill cores. However, outcrop sediments are often highly weathered and thus are unsuitable for some types of paleoclimatic records, and deep sea core records come from long distances away from the actual fossil and stone tool remains. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) was developed to address these issues. The project has focused its efforts on the eastern African Rift Valley, where much of the evidence for early hominins has been recovered. We have collected about 2 km of sediment drill core from six basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, in lake deposits immediately adjacent to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites. Collectively these cores cover in time many of the key transitions and critical intervals in human evolutionary history over the last 4 Ma, such as the earliest stone tools, the origin of our own genus Homo, and the earliest anatomically modern Homo sapiens. Here we document the initial field, physical property, and core description results of the 2012-2014 HSPDP coring campaign. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 611 KW - Turkana-Basin KW - Adar formation KW - climate-change KW - olorgesailie formation KW - Southern Ethiopia KW - global climate KW - Kenya Rift KW - Pleistocene KW - variability KW - patterns Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412498 IS - 611 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Foster, William J. A1 - Garvie, Christopher L. A1 - Weiss, Anna M. A1 - Muscente, A. Drew A1 - Aberhan, Martin A1 - Counts, John W. A1 - Martindale, Rowan C. T1 - Resilience of marine invertebrate communities during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The hyperthermal events of the Cenozoic, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, provide an opportunity to investigate the potential effects of climate warming on marine ecosystems. Here, we examine the shallow benthic marine communities preserved in the late Cretaceous to Eocene strata on the Gulf Coastal Plain (United States). In stark contrast to the ecological shifts following the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, our data show that the early Cenozoic hyperthermals did not have a long-term impact on the generic diversity nor composition of the Gulf Coastal Plain molluscan communities. We propose that these communities were resilient to climate change because molluscs are better adapted to high temperatures than other taxa, as demonstrated by their physiology and evolutionary history. In terms of resilience, these communities differ from other shallow-water carbonate ecosystems, such as reef communities, which record significant changes during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals. These data highlight the strikingly different responses of community types, i.e., the almost imperceptible response of molluscs versus the marked turnover of foraminifera and reef faunas. The impact on molluscan communities may have been low because detrimental conditions did not devastate the entire Gulf Coastal Plain, allowing molluscs to rapidly recolonise vacated areas once harsh environmental conditions ameliorated. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1410 KW - eocene thermal maximum KW - gulf coastal plain KW - climate-change KW - ocean acidification KW - extinction event KW - carbon-cycle KW - heat-stress KW - origination KW - ecosystems KW - diversity Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516011 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Foster, William J. A1 - Garvie, Christopher L. A1 - Weiss, Anna M. A1 - Muscente, A. Drew A1 - Aberhan, Martin A1 - Counts, John W. A1 - Martindale, Rowan C. T1 - Resilience of marine invertebrate communities during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals JF - Scientific Reports N2 - The hyperthermal events of the Cenozoic, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, provide an opportunity to investigate the potential effects of climate warming on marine ecosystems. Here, we examine the shallow benthic marine communities preserved in the late Cretaceous to Eocene strata on the Gulf Coastal Plain (United States). In stark contrast to the ecological shifts following the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, our data show that the early Cenozoic hyperthermals did not have a long-term impact on the generic diversity nor composition of the Gulf Coastal Plain molluscan communities. We propose that these communities were resilient to climate change because molluscs are better adapted to high temperatures than other taxa, as demonstrated by their physiology and evolutionary history. In terms of resilience, these communities differ from other shallow-water carbonate ecosystems, such as reef communities, which record significant changes during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals. These data highlight the strikingly different responses of community types, i.e., the almost imperceptible response of molluscs versus the marked turnover of foraminifera and reef faunas. The impact on molluscan communities may have been low because detrimental conditions did not devastate the entire Gulf Coastal Plain, allowing molluscs to rapidly recolonise vacated areas once harsh environmental conditions ameliorated. KW - eocene thermal maximum KW - gulf coastal plain KW - climate-change KW - ocean acidification KW - extinction event KW - carbon-cycle KW - heat-stress KW - origination KW - ecosystems KW - diversity Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-58986-5 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 10 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Mengel, Matthias A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, sea level would continue to rise for centuries, with the long-term sea-level commitment of a 2 degrees C warmer world significantly exceeding 2 m. In view of the potential implications for coastal populations and ecosystems worldwide, we investigate, from an ice-dynamic perspective, the possibility of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet. We find that due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than would be expected from a pure advection with surface velocities. The delay time depends strongly on the distance from the coastline at which the additional mass is placed and less strongly on the rate of sea-level rise that is mitigated. A millennium-scale storage of at least 80% of the additional ice requires placing it at a distance of at least 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate the potential energy of ocean water to mitigate the currently observed 3 mmyr(-1) will exceed 7% of the current global primary energy supply. At the same time, the approach offers a comprehensive protection for entire coastlines particularly including regions that cannot be protected by dikes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 533 KW - carbon-dioxide emissions KW - ice-sheet KW - climate-change KW - model KW - collapse KW - commitment KW - Greenland KW - discharge KW - project KW - surface Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410234 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 533 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Fritz, Michael A1 - Opel, Thomas A1 - Tanski, George A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Meyer, Hanno A1 - Eulenburg, A. A1 - Lantuit, Hugues T1 - Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic ground ice T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Thermal permafrost degradation and coastal erosion in the Arctic remobilize substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC) and nutrients which have accumulated in late Pleistocene and Holocene unconsolidated deposits. Permafrost vulnerability to thaw subsidence, collapsing coastlines and irreversible landscape change are largely due to the presence of large amounts of massive ground ice such as ice wedges. However, ground ice has not, until now, been considered to be a source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other elements which are important for ecosystems and carbon cycling. Here we show, using biogeochemical data from a large number of different ice bodies throughout the Arctic, that ice wedges have the greatest potential for DOC storage, with a maximum of 28.6 mg L-1 (mean: 9.6 mg L-1). Variation in DOC concentration is positively correlated with and explained by the concentrations and relative amounts of typically terrestrial cations such as Mg2+ and K+. DOC sequestration into ground ice was more effective during the late Pleistocene than during the Holocene, which can be explained by rapid sediment and OC accumulation, the prevalence of more easily degradable vegetation and immediate incorporation into permafrost. We assume that pristine snowmelt is able to leach considerable amounts of well-preserved and highly bioavailable DOC as well as other elements from surface sediments, which are rapidly frozen and stored in ground ice, especially in ice wedges, even before further degradation. We found that ice wedges in the Yedoma region represent a significant DOC (45.2 Tg) and DIC (33.6 Tg) pool in permafrost areas and a freshwater reservoir of 4200 km(2). This study underlines the need to discriminate between particulate OC and DOC to assess the availability and vulnerability of the permafrost car-bon pool for ecosystems and climate feedback upon mobilization. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 493 KW - last glacial maximum KW - Beaufort Sea coast KW - Cape Mamontov Klyk KW - permafrost carbon KW - Laptev Sea KW - Lyakhovsky Island KW - climate-change KW - old carbon KW - hologene KW - Siberia Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408155 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 493 ER -