TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lewandowsky, Stephan
A1  - Cowtan, Kevin
A1  - Risbey, James S.
A1  - Mann, Michael E.
A1  - Steinman, Byron A.
A1  - Oreskes, Naomi
A1  - Rahmstorf, Stefan
T1  - The 'pause' in global warming in historical context
BT  - (II). comparing models to observations
JF  - Environmental research letters
N2  - We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 13
IS  - 12
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Lewandowsky, Stephan
A1  - Cowtan, Kevin
A1  - Risbey, James S.
A1  - Mann, Michael E.
A1  - Steinman, Byron A.
A1  - Oreskes, Naomi
A1  - Rahmstorf, Stefan
T1  - Erratum: The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: II. Comparing models to observations (Environmental research letters. - Vol 13, (2018) 123007)
T2  - Environmental research letters
N2  - We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafbb7
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 14
IS  - 4
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Mann, Michael E.
A1  - Rahmstorf, Stefan
A1  - Kornhuber, Kai
A1  - Steinman, Byron A.
A1  - Miller, Sonya K.
A1  - Petri, Stefan
A1  - Coumou, Dim
T1  - Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events
BT  - The role of quasi-resonant amplification
JF  - Science Advances
N2  - Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272
SN  - 2375-2548
VL  - 4
IS  - 10
PB  - American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Mann, Michael E.
A1  - Rahmstorf, Stefan
A1  - Kornhuber, Kai
A1  - Steinman, Byron A.
A1  - Miller, Sonya K.
A1  - Petri, Stefan
A1  - Coumou, Dim
T1  - Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events
BT  - the role of quasi-resonant amplification
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 994 
KW  - planetary wave resonance
KW  - northern
KW  - atmosphere
KW  - attribution
KW  - circulation
Y1  - 2015
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446416
SN  - 1866-8372
IS  - 994
ER  -