TY - JOUR A1 - Adolfs, Marjolijn A1 - Hoque, Mohammed Mainul A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. T1 - Storm-time relative total electron content modelling using machine learning techniques JF - Remote sensing N2 - Accurately predicting total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms is still a challenging task for ionospheric models. In this work, a neural-network (NN)-based model is proposed which predicts relative TEC with respect to the preceding 27-day median TEC, during storm time for the European region (with longitudes 30 degrees W-50 degrees E and latitudes 32.5 degrees N-70 degrees N). The 27-day median TEC (referred to as median TEC), latitude, longitude, universal time, storm time, solar radio flux index F10.7, global storm index SYM-H and geomagnetic activity index Hp30 are used as inputs and the output of the network is the relative TEC. The relative TEC can be converted to the actual TEC knowing the median TEC. The median TEC is calculated at each grid point over the European region considering data from the last 27 days before the storm using global ionosphere maps (GIMs) from international GNSS service (IGS) sources. A storm event is defined when the storm time disturbance index Dst drops below 50 nanotesla. The model was trained with storm-time relative TEC data from the time period of 1998 until 2019 (2015 is excluded) and contains 365 storms. Unseen storm data from 33 storm events during 2015 and 2020 were used to test the model. The UQRG GIMs were used because of their high temporal resolution (15 min) compared to other products from different analysis centers. The NN-based model predictions show the seasonal behavior of the storms including positive and negative storm phases during winter and summer, respectively, and show a mixture of both phases during equinoxes. The model's performance was also compared with the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM) and the NN-based quiet-time TEC model, both developed at the German Aerospace Agency (DLR). The storm model has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.38 TEC units (TECU), which is an improvement by 1.87 TECU compared to the NTCM, where an RMSE of 5.25 TECU was found. This improvement corresponds to a performance increase by 35.6%. The storm-time model outperforms the quiet-time model by 1.34 TECU, which corresponds to a performance increase by 28.4% from 4.72 to 3.38 TECU. The quiet-time model was trained with Carrington averaged TEC and, therefore, is ideal to be used as an input instead of the GIM derived 27-day median. We found an improvement by 0.8 TECU which corresponds to a performance increase by 17% from 4.72 to 3.92 TECU for the storm-time model using the quiet-time-model predicted TEC as an input compared to solely using the quiet-time model. KW - ionosphere KW - relative total electron content KW - geomagnetic storms KW - neural KW - networks KW - NTCM KW - European storm-time model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14236155 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 14 IS - 23 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. T1 - Reanalysis of ring current electron phase space densities using van allen probe observations, convection model, and log‐normal kalman filter JF - Space weather : the international journal of research and applications N2 - Models of ring current electron dynamics unavoidably contain uncertainties in boundary conditions, electric and magnetic fields, electron scattering rates, and plasmapause location. Model errors can accumulate with time and result in significant deviations of model predictions from observations. Data assimilation offers useful tools which can combine physics-based models and measurements to improve model predictions. In this study, we systematically analyze performance of the Kalman filter applied to a log-transformed convection model of ring current electrons and Van Allen Probe data. We consider long-term dynamics of mu = 2.3 MeV/G and K = 0.3 G(1/2) R-E electrons from 1 February 2013 to 16 June 2013. By using synthetic data, we show that the Kalman filter is capable of correcting errors in model predictions associated with uncertainties in electron lifetimes, boundary conditions, and convection electric fields. We demonstrate that reanalysis retains features which cannot be fully reproduced by the convection model such as storm-time earthward propagation of the electrons down to 2.5 R-E. The Kalman filter can adjust model predictions to satellite measurements even in regions where data are not available. We show that the Kalman filter can adjust model predictions in accordance with observations for mu = 0.1, 2.3, and 9.9 MeV/G and constant K = 0.3 G(1/2) R-E electrons. The results of this study demonstrate that data assimilation can improve performance of ring current models, better quantify model uncertainties, and help deeper understand the physics of the ring current particles. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002110 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 17 IS - 4 SP - 619 EP - 638 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. T1 - Numerical applications of the advective-diffusive codes for the inner magnetosphere JF - Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications N2 - In this study we present analytical solutions for convection and diffusion equations. We gather here the analytical solutions for the one-dimensional convection equation, the two-dimensional convection problem, and the one- and two-dimensional diffusion equations. Using obtained analytical solutions, we test the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code (the VERB-4D code), which solves the modified Fokker-Planck equation with additional convection terms. The ninth-order upwind numerical scheme for the one-dimensional convection equation shows much more accurate results than the results obtained with the third-order scheme. The universal limiter eliminates unphysical oscillations generated by high-order linear upwind schemes. Decrease in the space step leads to convergence of a numerical solution of the two-dimensional diffusion equation with mixed terms to the analytical solution. We compare the results of the third- and ninth-order schemes applied to magnetospheric convection modeling. The results show significant differences in electron fluxes near geostationary orbit when different numerical schemes are used. KW - advective-diffusive codes KW - inner magnetosphere KW - numerical schemes Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001484 SN - 1542-7390 VL - 14 SP - 993 EP - 1010 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. A1 - Usanova, Maria E. A1 - Wang, D. A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina T1 - Signatures of Ultrarelativistic Electron Loss in the Heart of the Outer Radiation Belt Measured by Van Allen Probes JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Up until recently, signatures of the ultrarelativistic electron loss driven by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the Earth's outer radiation belt have been limited to direct or indirect measurements of electron precipitation or the narrowing of normalized pitch angle distributions in the heart of the belt. In this study, we demonstrate additional observational evidence of ultrarelativistic electron loss that can be driven by resonant interaction with EMIC waves. We analyzed the profiles derived from Van Allen Probe particle data as a function of time and three adiabatic invariants between 9 October and 29 November 2012. New local minimums in the profiles are accompanied by the narrowing of normalized pitch angle distributions and ground‐based detection of EMIC waves. Such a correlation may be indicative of ultrarelativistic electron precipitation into the Earth's atmosphere caused by resonance with EMIC waves. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024485 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 122 SP - 10102 EP - 10111 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Wygant, John A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Kellerman, Adam C. A1 - Reeves, Geoffrey D. T1 - Transport and loss of ring current electrons inside geosynchronous orbit during the 17 March 2013 storm JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - Ring current electrons (1–100 keV) have received significant attention in recent decades, but many questions regarding their major transport and loss mechanisms remain open. In this study, we use the four‐dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code to model the enhancement of phase space density that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm. Our model includes global convection, radial diffusion, and scattering into the Earth's atmosphere driven by whistler‐mode hiss and chorus waves. We study the sensitivity of the model to the boundary conditions, global electric field, the electric field associated with subauroral polarization streams, electron loss rates, and radial diffusion coefficients. The results of the code are almost insensitive to the model parameters above 4.5 RERE, which indicates that the general dynamics of the electrons between 4.5 RE and the geostationary orbit can be explained by global convection. We found that the major discrepancies between the model and data can stem from the inaccurate electric field model and uncertainties in lifetimes. We show that additional mechanisms that are responsible for radial transport are required to explain the dynamics of ≥40‐keV electrons, and the inclusion of the radial diffusion rates that are typically assumed in radiation belt studies leads to a better agreement with the data. The overall effect of subauroral polarization streams on the electron phase space density profiles seems to be smaller than the uncertainties in other input parameters. This study is an initial step toward understanding the dynamics of these particles inside the geostationary orbit. KW - ring current electrons KW - magnetospheric convection KW - ensemble modeling KW - inner magnetosphere KW - electron transport KW - wave-particle interactions Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA026031 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 124 IS - 2 SP - 915 EP - 933 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Boyd, A. J. A1 - Spence, Harlan E. A1 - Huang, Chia-Lin A1 - Reeves, Geoffrey D. A1 - Baker, Daniel N. A1 - Turner, D. L. A1 - Claudepierre, Seth G. A1 - Fennell, Joseph F. A1 - Blake, J. Bernard A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. T1 - Statistical properties of the radiation belt seed population JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - We present a statistical analysis of phase space density data from the first 26 months of the Van Allen Probes mission. In particular, we investigate the relationship between the tens and hundreds of keV seed electrons and >1 MeV core radiation belt electron population. Using a cross-correlation analysis, we find that the seed and core populations are well correlated with a coefficient of approximate to 0.73 with a time lag of 10-15 h. We present evidence of a seed population threshold that is necessary for subsequent acceleration. The depth of penetration of the seed population determines the inner boundary of the acceleration process. However, we show that an enhanced seed population alone is not enough to produce acceleration in the higher energies, implying that the seed population of hundreds of keV electrons is only one of several conditions required for MeV electron radiation belt acceleration. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA022652 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 121 SP - 7636 EP - 7646 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cao, Xing A1 - Ni, Binbin A1 - Summers, Danny A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Gu, Xudong A1 - Fu, Song A1 - Lou, Yuequn A1 - Zhang, Yang A1 - Ma, Xin A1 - Zhang, Wenxun A1 - Huang, He A1 - Yi, Juan T1 - Sensitivity of EMIC wave-driven scattering loss of ring current protons to wave normal angle distribution JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves have long been recognized to play a crucial role in the dynamic loss of ring current protons. While the field-aligned propagation approximation of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves was widely used to quantify the scattering loss of ring current protons, in this study, we find that the wave normal distribution strongly affects the pitch angle scattering efficiency of protons. Increase of peak normal angle or angular width can considerably reduce the scattering rates of <= 10 keV protons. For >10 keV protons, the field-aligned propagation approximation results in a pronounced underestimate of the scattering of intermediate equatorial pitch angle protons and overestimates the scattering of high equatorial pitch angle protons by orders of magnitude. Our results suggest that the wave normal distribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves plays an important role in the pitch angle evolution and scattering loss of ring current protons and should be incorporated in future global modeling of ring current dynamics. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081550 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 46 IS - 2 SP - 590 EP - 598 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cao, Xing A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Ni, Binbin A1 - Zhelavskaya, Irina T1 - Scattering of Ultra-relativistic Electrons in the Van Allen Radiation Belts Accounting for Hot Plasma Effects JF - Scientific reports N2 - Electron flux in the Earth’s outer radiation belt is highly variable due to a delicate balance between competing acceleration and loss processes. It has been long recognized that Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves may play a crucial role in the loss of radiation belt electrons. Previous theoretical studies proposed that EMIC waves may account for the loss of the relativistic electron population. However, recent observations showed that while EMIC waves are responsible for the significant loss of ultra-relativistic electrons, the relativistic electron population is almost unaffected. In this study, we provide a theoretical explanation for this discrepancy between previous theoretical studies and recent observations. We demonstrate that EMIC waves mainly contribute to the loss of ultra-relativistic electrons. This study significantly improves the current understanding of the electron dynamics in the Earth’s radiation belt and also can help us understand the radiation environments of the exoplanets and outer planets. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17739-7 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 7 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Castillo, Angelica M. A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Ganushkina, Natalia A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Wang, Dedong A1 - Dubyagin, Stepan T1 - Simulations of the inner magnetospheric energetic electrons using the IMPTAM-VERB coupled model JF - Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics N2 - In this study, we present initial results of the coupling between the Inner Magnetospheric Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) and the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-3D) code. IMPTAM traces electrons of 10-100 keV energies from the plasma sheet (L = 9 Re) to inner L-shell regions. The flux evolution modeled by IMPTAM is used at the low energy and outer L* computational boundaries of the VERB code (assuming a dipole approximation) to perform radiation belt simulations of energetic electrons. The model was tested on the March 17th, 2013 storm, for a six-day period. Four different simulations were performed and their results compared to satellites observations from Van Allen probes and GOES. The coupled IMPTAM-VERB model reproduces evolution and storm-time features of electron fluxes throughout the studied storm in agreement with the satellite data (within similar to 0.5 orders of magnitude). Including dynamics of the low energy population at L* = 6.6 increases fluxes closer to the heart of the belt and has a strong impact in the VERB simulations at all energies. However, inclusion of magnetopause losses leads to drastic flux decreases even below L* = 3. The dynamics of low energy electrons (max. 10s of keV) do not affect electron fluxes at energies >= 900 keV. Since the IMPTAM-VERB coupled model is only driven by solar wind parameters and the Dst and Kp indexes, it is suitable as a forecasting tool. In this study, we demonstrate that the estimation of electron dynamics with satellite-data-independent models is possible and very accurate. KW - Electron populations KW - Radiation belts KW - IMPTAM KW - VERB Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.05.014 SN - 1364-6826 SN - 1879-1824 VL - 191 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cervantes, Sebastian A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Aseev, Nikita A1 - Allison, Hayley J. T1 - Quantifying the effects of EMIC wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing in the outer electron radiation belt by means of data assimilation JF - Journal of geophysical research : Space physics N2 - In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G(-1). We inspect the innovation vector and perform a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. We show that EMIC wave scattering tends to dominate loss at lower L shells, and it may amount to between 10%/hr and 30%/hr of the maximum value of phase space density (PSD) over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50%/hr to 70%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028208 SN - 2169-9380 SN - 2169-9402 VL - 125 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER -