TY - JOUR A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Braun, Thomas A1 - Maccaferri, Francesco A1 - Passarelli, Luigi A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Source modelling of the M5-6 Emilia-Romagna, Italy, earthquakes (2012 May 20-29) JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - On 2012 May 20 and 29, two damaging earthquakes with magnitudes M-w 6.1 and 5.9, respectively, struck the Emilia-Romagna region in the sedimentary Po Plain, Northern Italy, causing 26 fatalities, significant damage to historical buildings and substantial impact to the economy of the region. The earthquake sequence included four more aftershocks with M-w, >= 5.0, all at shallow depths (about 7-9 km), with similar WNW-ESE striking reverse mechanism. The timeline of the sequence suggests significant static stress interaction between the largest events. We perform here a detailed source inversion, first adopting a point source approximation and considering pure double couple and full moment tensor source models. We compare different extended source inversion approaches for the two largest events, and find that the rupture occurred in both cases along a subhorizontal plane, dipping towards SSW Directivity is well detected for the May 20 main shock, indicating that the rupture propagated unilaterally towards SE. Based on the focal mechanism solution, we further estimate the co-seismic static stress change induced by the May 20 event. By using the rate-and-state model and a Poissonian earthquake occurrence, we infer that the second largest event of May 29 was induced with a probability in the range 0.2-0.4. This suggests that the segment of fault was already prone to rupture. Finally, we estimate peak ground accelerations for the two main events as occurred separately or simultaneously. For the scenario involving hypothetical rupture areas of both main events, we estimate M-w = 6.3 and an increase of ground acceleration by 50 per cent. The approach we propose may help to quantify rapidly which regions are invested by a significant increase of the hazard, bearing the potential for large aftershocks or even a second main shock. KW - Earthquake dynamics KW - Earthquake source observations Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt069 SN - 0956-540X VL - 193 IS - 3 SP - 1658 EP - 1672 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - GEN A1 - Passarelli, Luigi A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Maccaferri, Francesco A1 - Mucciarelli, Marco A1 - Roessler, Dirk A1 - Corbi, Fabio A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora T1 - Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy (vol 201, pg 1553, 2015) T2 - Geophysical journal international KW - Seismicity and tectonics KW - Statistical seismology KW - Dynamics: seismotectonics Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv425 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 204 SP - 365 EP - 365 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Passarelli, Luigi A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Maccaferri, Francesco A1 - Mucciarelli, Marco A1 - Rößler, Dirk A1 - Corbi, Fabio A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora T1 - Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Tectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg-Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M-w = 4.2 and M-w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M-l > 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been 'passive' features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an 'active', largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area. KW - Seismicity and tectonics KW - Statistical seismology KW - Dynamics: seismotectonics Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv111 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 201 IS - 3 SP - 1553 EP - 1567 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Passarelli, Luigi A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Aoki, Yosuke T1 - Stress changes, focal mechanisms, and earthquake scaling laws for the 2000 dike at Miyakejima (Japan) JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - Faulting processes in volcanic areas result from a complex interaction of pressurized fluid-filled cracks and conduits with the host rock and local and regional tectonic setting. Often, volcanic seismicity is difficult to decipher in terms of the physical processes involved, and there is a need for models relating the mechanics of volcanic sources to observations. Here we use focal mechanism data of the energetic swarm induced by the 2000 dike intrusion at Miyakejima (Izu Archipelago, Japan), to study the relation between the 3-D dike-induced stresses and the characteristics of the seismicity. We perform a clustering analysis on the focal mechanism (FM) solutions and relate them to the dike stress field and to the scaling relationships of the earthquakes. We find that the strike and rake angles of the FMs are strongly correlated and cluster on bands in a strike-rake plot. We suggest that this is consistent with optimally oriented faults according to the expected pattern of Coulomb stress changes. We calculate the frequency-size distribution of the clustered sets finding that focal mechanisms with a large strike-slip component are consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter relation with a b value of about 1. Conversely, events with large normal faulting components deviate from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution with a marked roll-off on its right-hand tail, suggesting a lack of large-magnitude events (M-w>5.5). This may result from the interplay of the limited thickness and lower rock strength of the layer of rock above the dike, where normal faulting is expected, and lower stress levels linked to the faulting style and low confining pressure. KW - dike intrusion KW - dike-induced stresses KW - dike-induced seismicity KW - Miyakejima intrusion KW - Gutenberg-Richter relationship Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011504 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 120 IS - 6 SP - 4130 EP - 4145 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER -