TY - GEN A1 - Feldmann, Johannes A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Interaction of marine ice-sheet instabilities in two drainage basins BT - simple scaling of geometry and transition time T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Universität N2 - The initiation of a marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) is generally discussed from the ocean side of the ice sheet. It has been shown that the reduction in ice-shelf buttressing and softening of the coastal ice can destabilize a marine ice sheet if the bedrock is sloping upward towards the ocean. Using a conceptional flow-line geometry, we investigate the possibility of whether a MISI can be triggered from the direction of the ice divide as opposed to coastal forcing and explore the interaction between connected basins. We find that the initiation of a MISI in one basin can induce a destabilization in the other. The underlying mechanism of basin interaction is based on dynamic thinning and a consecutive motion of the ice divide which induces a thinning in the adjacent basin and a successive initiation of the instability. Our simplified and symmetric topographic setup allows scaling both the geometry and the transition time between both instabilities. We find that the ice profile follows a universal shape that is scaled with the horizontal extent of the ice sheet and that the same exponent of 1/2 applies for the scaling relation between central surface elevation and horizontal extent as in the pure shallow ice approximation (Vialov profile). Altering the central bed elevation, we find that the extent of grounding-line retreat in one basin determines the degree of interaction with the other. Different scenarios of basin interaction are discussed based on our modeling results as well as on a conceptual flux-balance analysis. We conclude that for the three-dimensional case, the possibility of drainage basin interaction on timescales on the order of 1 kyr or larger cannot be excluded and hence needs further investigation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 511 KW - Pine Island Glacier KW - model PISM-PIK KW - West Antarctica KW - grounding-line KW - Thwaites Glacier KW - divide position KW - part 1 KW - stability KW - shelf KW - accumulation Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408903 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 511 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Pfannerstill, Matthias A1 - Gafurov, Abror A1 - Kiesel, Jens A1 - Lehr, Christian A1 - Fohrer, Nicola T1 - Identifying the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria.& para;& para;To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) and its three components (alpha, beta and r) as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation) for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC) are calculated.& para;& para;With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT) approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter.& para;& para;In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria is found for low- and mid-flow conditions. Moreover, the RT analyses emphasise the benefit of an individual analysis of the three components of KGE and of the FDC segments. Furthermore, the RT analyses highlight under which conditions these performance criteria provide insights into precise parameter identification. Our results show that separate performance criteria are required to identify dominant parameters on low- and mid-flow conditions, whilst the number of required performance criteria for high flows increases with increasing process complexity in the catchment. Overall, the analysis of the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria using RTs contribute to a more realistic handling of parameters and performance criteria in hydrological modelling. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 657 KW - flow-duration curves KW - hydrological models KW - multiobjective calibration KW - sensitivity-analysis KW - landscape controls KW - lowland catchment KW - regional patterns KW - physical controls KW - water-balance KW - part 1 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419142 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 657 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Tardif, Delphine A1 - Fluteau, Frédéric A1 - Donnadieu, Yannick A1 - Le Hir, Guillaume A1 - Ladant, Jean-Baptiste A1 - Sepulchre, Pierre A1 - Licht, Alexis A1 - Poblete, Fernando A1 - Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume T1 - The origin of Asian monsoons BT - a modelling perspective T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Cenozoic inception and development of the Asian monsoons remain unclear and have generated much debate, as several hypotheses regarding circulation patterns at work in Asia during the Eocene have been proposed in the few last decades. These include (a) the existence of modern-like monsoons since the early Eocene; (b) that of a weak South Asian monsoon (SAM) and little to no East Asian monsoon (EAM); or (c) a prevalence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations, also referred to as Indonesian-Australian monsoon (I-AM). As SAM and EAM are supposed to have been triggered or enhanced primarily by Asian palaeogeographic changes, their possible inception in the very dynamic Eocene palaeogeographic context remains an open question, both in the modelling and field-based communities. We investigate here Eocene Asian climate conditions using the IPSL-CM5A2 (Sepulchre et al., 2019) earth system model and revised palaeogeographies. Our Eocene climate simulation yields atmospheric circulation patterns in Asia substantially different from modern conditions. A large high-pressure area is simulated over the Tethys ocean, which generates intense low tropospheric winds blowing southward along the western flank of the proto-Himalayan-Tibetan plateau (HTP) system. This low-level wind system blocks, to latitudes lower than 10 degrees N, the migration of humid and warm air masses coming from the Indian Ocean. This strongly contrasts with the modern SAM, during which equatorial air masses reach a latitude of 20-25 degrees N over India and southeastern China. Another specific feature of our Eocene simulation is the widespread subsidence taking place over northern India in the midtroposphere (around 5000 m), preventing deep convective updraught that would transport water vapour up to the condensation level. Both processes lead to the onset of a broad arid region located over northern India and over the HTP. More humid regions of high seasonality in precipitation encircle this arid area, due to the prevalence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations (or Indonesian-Australian monsoon, I-AM) rather than monsoons. Although the existence of this central arid region may partly result from the specifics of our simulation (model dependence and palaeogeographic uncertainties) and has yet to be confirmed by proxy records, most of the observational evidence for Eocene monsoons are located in the highly seasonal transition zone between the arid area and the more humid surroundings. We thus suggest that a zonal arid climate prevailed over Asia before the initiation of monsoons that most likely occurred following Eocene palaeogeographic changes. Our results also show that precipitation seasonality should be used with caution to infer the presence of a monsoonal circulation and that the collection of new data in this arid area is of paramount importance to allow the debate to move forward. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1436 KW - earth system model KW - early eocene KW - tibetan plateau KW - climate-change KW - oligocene climate KW - summer monsoon KW - global monsoon KW - ice sheet KW - part 1 KW - China Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516770 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1436 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tardif, Delphine A1 - Fluteau, Frédéric A1 - Donnadieu, Yannick A1 - Le Hir, Guillaume A1 - Ladant, Jean-Baptiste A1 - Sepulchre, Pierre A1 - Licht, Alexis A1 - Poblete, Fernando A1 - Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume T1 - The origin of Asian monsoons BT - a modelling perspective JF - Climate of the Past N2 - The Cenozoic inception and development of the Asian monsoons remain unclear and have generated much debate, as several hypotheses regarding circulation patterns at work in Asia during the Eocene have been proposed in the few last decades. These include (a) the existence of modern-like monsoons since the early Eocene; (b) that of a weak South Asian monsoon (SAM) and little to no East Asian monsoon (EAM); or (c) a prevalence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations, also referred to as Indonesian-Australian monsoon (I-AM). As SAM and EAM are supposed to have been triggered or enhanced primarily by Asian palaeogeographic changes, their possible inception in the very dynamic Eocene palaeogeographic context remains an open question, both in the modelling and field-based communities. We investigate here Eocene Asian climate conditions using the IPSL-CM5A2 (Sepulchre et al., 2019) earth system model and revised palaeogeographies. Our Eocene climate simulation yields atmospheric circulation patterns in Asia substantially different from modern conditions. A large high-pressure area is simulated over the Tethys ocean, which generates intense low tropospheric winds blowing southward along the western flank of the proto-Himalayan-Tibetan plateau (HTP) system. This low-level wind system blocks, to latitudes lower than 10 degrees N, the migration of humid and warm air masses coming from the Indian Ocean. This strongly contrasts with the modern SAM, during which equatorial air masses reach a latitude of 20-25 degrees N over India and southeastern China. Another specific feature of our Eocene simulation is the widespread subsidence taking place over northern India in the midtroposphere (around 5000 m), preventing deep convective updraught that would transport water vapour up to the condensation level. Both processes lead to the onset of a broad arid region located over northern India and over the HTP. More humid regions of high seasonality in precipitation encircle this arid area, due to the prevalence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations (or Indonesian-Australian monsoon, I-AM) rather than monsoons. Although the existence of this central arid region may partly result from the specifics of our simulation (model dependence and palaeogeographic uncertainties) and has yet to be confirmed by proxy records, most of the observational evidence for Eocene monsoons are located in the highly seasonal transition zone between the arid area and the more humid surroundings. We thus suggest that a zonal arid climate prevailed over Asia before the initiation of monsoons that most likely occurred following Eocene palaeogeographic changes. Our results also show that precipitation seasonality should be used with caution to infer the presence of a monsoonal circulation and that the collection of new data in this arid area is of paramount importance to allow the debate to move forward. KW - earth system model KW - early eocene KW - tibetan plateau KW - climate-change KW - oligocene climate KW - summer monsoon KW - global monsoon KW - ice sheet KW - part 1 KW - China Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-847-2020 SN - 1814-9332 SN - 1814-9324 VL - 16 IS - 3 SP - 847 EP - 865 PB - Copernicus Publications CY - Göttingen ER -