TY - JOUR A1 - Atsawawaranunt, Kamolphat A1 - Comas-Bru, Laia A1 - Mozhdehi, Sahar Amirnezhad A1 - Deininger, Michael A1 - Harrison, Sandy P. A1 - Baker, Andy A1 - Boyd, Meighan A1 - Kaushal, Nikita A1 - Ahmad, Syed Masood A1 - Brahim, Yassine Ait A1 - Arienzo, Monica A1 - Bajo, Petra A1 - Braun, Kerstin A1 - Burstyn, Yuval A1 - Chawchai, Sakonvan A1 - Duan, Wuhui A1 - Hatvani, Istvan Gabor A1 - Hu, Jun A1 - Kern, Zoltan A1 - Labuhn, Inga A1 - Lachniet, Matthew A1 - Lechleitner, Franziska A. A1 - Lorrey, Andrew A1 - Perez-Mejias, Carlos A1 - Pickering, Robyn A1 - Scroxton, Nick A1 - Atkinson, Tim A1 - Ayalon, Avner A1 - Baldini, James A1 - Bar-Matthews, Miriam A1 - Pablo Bernal, Juan A1 - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin A1 - Boch, Ronny A1 - Borsato, Andrea A1 - Cai, Yanjun A1 - Carolin, Stacy A1 - Cheng, Hai A1 - Columbu, Andrea A1 - Couchoud, Isabelle A1 - Cruz, Francisco A1 - Demeny, Attila A1 - Dominguez-Villar, David A1 - Dragusin, Virgil A1 - Drysdale, Russell A1 - Ersek, Vasile A1 - Finne, Martin A1 - Fleitmann, Dominik A1 - Fohlmeister, Jens Bernd A1 - Frappier, Amy A1 - Genty, Dominique A1 - Holzkamper, Steffen A1 - Hopley, Philip A1 - Kathayat, Gayatri A1 - Keenan-Jones, Duncan A1 - Koltai, Gabriella A1 - Luetscher, Marc A1 - Li, Ting-Yong A1 - Lone, Mahjoor Ahmad A1 - Markowska, Monika A1 - Mattey, Dave A1 - McDermott, Frank A1 - Moreno, Ana A1 - Moseley, Gina A1 - Nehme, Carole A1 - Novello, Valdir F. A1 - Psomiadis, David A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Ruan, Jiaoyang A1 - Sekhon, Natasha A1 - Sha, Lijuan A1 - Sholz, Denis A1 - Shopov, Yavor A1 - Smith, Andrew A1 - Strikis, Nicolas A1 - Treble, Pauline A1 - Unal-Imer, Ezgi A1 - Vaks, Anton A1 - Vansteenberge, Stef A1 - Veiga-Pires, Cristina A1 - Voarintsoa, Ny Riavo A1 - Wang, Xianfeng A1 - Wong, Corinne A1 - Wortham, Barbara A1 - Wurtzel, Jennifer A1 - Zong, Baoyun T1 - The SISAL database BT - a global resource to document oxygen and carbon isotope records from speleothems JF - Earth System Science Data N2 - Stable isotope records from speleothems provide information on past climate changes, most particularly information that can be used to reconstruct past changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. These records are increasingly being used to provide "out-of-sample" evaluations of isotope-enabled climate models. SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) is an international working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project. The working group aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation. The SISAL database contains data for individual speleothems, grouped by cave system. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon (delta O-18, delta C-13) measurements are referenced by distance from the top or bottom of the speleothem. Additional tables provide information on dating, including information on the dates used to construct the original age model and sufficient information to assess the quality of each data set and to erect a standardized chronology across different speleothems. The metadata table provides location information, information on the full range of measurements carried out on each speleothem and information on the cave system that is relevant to the interpretation of the records, as well as citations for both publications and archived data. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1687-2018 SN - 1866-3508 SN - 1866-3516 VL - 10 IS - 3 SP - 1687 EP - 1713 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Goswami, Bedartha A1 - Baldini, James U. L. A1 - Ridley, H. E. A1 - Kennett, D. J. A1 - Prufer, K. M. A1 - Aquino, Valorie V. A1 - Asmerom, Yemane A1 - Polyak, V. J. A1 - Cheng, Hai A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Marwan, Norbert T1 - Constructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA) JF - Climate of the past : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question. We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012 SN - 1814-9324 VL - 8 IS - 5 SP - 1765 EP - 1779 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Comas-Bru, Laia A1 - Harrison, Sandy P. A1 - Werner, Martin A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Scroxton, Nick A1 - Veiga-Pires, Cristina A1 - Ahmad, Syed Masood A1 - Brahim, Yassine Ait A1 - Mozhdehi, Sahar Amirnezhad A1 - Arienzo, Monica A1 - Atsawawaranunt, Kamolphat A1 - Baker, Andy A1 - Braun, Kerstin A1 - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin A1 - Burstyn, Yuval A1 - Chawchai, Sakonvan A1 - Columbu, Andrea A1 - Deininger, Michael A1 - Demeny, Attila A1 - Dixon, Bronwyn A1 - Hatvani, Istvan Gabor A1 - Hu, Jun A1 - Kaushal, Nikita A1 - Kern, Zoltan A1 - Labuhn, Inga A1 - Lachniet, Matthew S. A1 - Lechleitner, Franziska A. A1 - Lorrey, Andrew A1 - Markowska, Monika A1 - Nehme, Carole A1 - Novello, Valdir F. A1 - Oster, Jessica A1 - Perez-Mejias, Carlos A1 - Pickering, Robyn A1 - Sekhon, Natasha A1 - Wang, Xianfeng A1 - Warken, Sophie A1 - Atkinson, Tim A1 - Ayalon, Avner A1 - Baldini, James A1 - Bar-Matthews, Miryam A1 - Bernal, Juan Pablo A1 - Boch, Ronny A1 - Borsato, Andrea A1 - Boyd, Meighan A1 - Brierley, Chris A1 - Cai, Yanjun A1 - Carolin, Stacy A1 - Cheng, Hai A1 - Constantin, Silviu A1 - Couchoud, Isabelle A1 - Cruz, Francisco A1 - Denniston, Rhawn A1 - Dragusin, Virgil A1 - Duan, Wuhui A1 - Ersek, Vasile A1 - Finne, Martin A1 - Fleitmann, Dominik A1 - Fohlmeister, Jens Bernd A1 - Frappier, Amy A1 - Genty, Dominique A1 - Holzkamper, Steffen A1 - Hopley, Philip A1 - Johnston, Vanessa A1 - Kathayat, Gayatri A1 - Keenan-Jones, Duncan A1 - Koltai, Gabriella A1 - Li, Ting-Yong A1 - Lone, Mahjoor Ahmad A1 - Luetscher, Marc A1 - Mattey, Dave A1 - Moreno, Ana A1 - Moseley, Gina A1 - Psomiadis, David A1 - Ruan, Jiaoyang A1 - Scholz, Denis A1 - Sha, Lijuan A1 - Smith, Andrew Christopher A1 - Strikis, Nicolas A1 - Treble, Pauline A1 - Unal-Imer, Ezgi A1 - Vaks, Anton A1 - Vansteenberge, Stef A1 - Voarintsoa, Ny Riavo G. A1 - Wong, Corinne A1 - Wortham, Barbara A1 - Wurtzel, Jennifer A1 - Zhang, Haiwei T1 - Evaluating model outputs using integrated global speleothem records of climate change since the last glacial JF - Climate of the past : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019 SN - 1814-9324 SN - 1814-9332 VL - 15 IS - 4 SP - 1557 EP - 1579 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Trauth, Martin H. A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Identification of dynamical transitions in marine palaeoclimate records by recurrence network analysis JF - Nonlinear processes in geophysics N2 - The analysis of palaeoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, in this paper we argue that the statistical properties of recurrence networks - a recently developed approach - are promising candidates for characterising the system's nonlinear dynamics and quantifying structural changes in its reconstructed phase space as time evolves. In a first order approximation, the results of recurrence network analysis are invariant to changes in the age model and are not directly affected by non-equidistant sampling of the data. Specifically, we investigate the behaviour of recurrence network measures for both paradigmatic model systems with non-stationary parameters and four marine records of long-term palaeoclimate variations. We show that the obtained results are qualitatively robust under changes of the relevant parameters of our method, including detrending, size of the running window used for analysis, and embedding delay. We demonstrate that recurrence network analysis is able to detect relevant regime shifts in synthetic data as well as in problematic geoscientific time series. This suggests its application as a general exploratory tool of time series analysis complementing existing methods. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-545-2011 SN - 1023-5809 VL - 18 IS - 5 SP - 545 EP - 562 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Goswami, Bedartha A1 - Heitzig, Jobst A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Anoop, Ambili A1 - Prasad, Sushma A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Estimation of sedimentary proxy records together with associated uncertainty JF - Nonlinear processes in geophysics N2 - Sedimentary proxy records constitute a significant portion of the recorded evidence that allows us to investigate paleoclimatic conditions and variability. However, uncertainties in the dating of proxy archives limit our ability to fix the timing of past events and interpret proxy record intercomparisons. While there are various age-modeling approaches to improve the estimation of the age-depth relations of archives, relatively little focus has been placed on the propagation of the age (and radiocarbon calibration) uncertainties into the final proxy record. We present a generic Bayesian framework to estimate proxy records along with their associated uncertainty, starting with the radiometric age-depth and proxy-depth measurements, and a radiometric calibration curve if required. We provide analytical expressions for the posterior proxy probability distributions at any given calendar age, from which the expected proxy values and their uncertainty can be estimated. We illustrate our method using two synthetic data sets and then use it to construct the proxy records for groundwater inflow and surface erosion from Lonar lake in central India. Our analysis reveals interrelations between the uncertainty of the proxy record over time and the variance of proxies along the depth of the archive. For the Lonar lake proxies, we show that, rather than the age uncertainties, it is the proxy variance combined with calibration uncertainty that accounts for most of the final uncertainty. We represent the proxy records as probability distributions on a precise, error-free timescale that makes further time series analyses and intercomparisons of proxies relatively simple and clear. Our approach provides a coherent understanding of age uncertainties within sedimentary proxy records that involve radiometric dating. It can be potentially used within existing age modeling structures to bring forth a reliable and consistent framework for proxy record estimation. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014 SN - 1023-5809 VL - 21 IS - 6 SP - 1093 EP - 1111 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lechleitner, Franziska A. A1 - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin A1 - Cheng, Hai A1 - Plessen, Birgit A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Goswami, Bedartha A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Eroglu, Deniz A1 - Adkins, Jess F. A1 - Haug, Gerald T1 - Climatic and in-cave influences on delta O-18 and delta C-13 in a stalagmite from northeastern India through the last deglaciation JF - Quaternary research : an interdisciplinary journal N2 - Northeastern (NE) India experiences extraordinarily pronounced seasonal climate, governed by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The vulnerability of this region to floods and droughts calls for detailed and highly resolved paleoclimate reconstructions to assess the recurrence rate and driving factors of ISM changes. We use stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (delta O-18 and delta C-13) from stalagmite MAW-6 from Mawmluh Cave to infer climate and environmental conditions in NE India over the last deglaciation (16-6ka). We interpret stalagmite delta O-18 as reflecting ISM strength, whereas delta C-13 appears to be driven by local hydroclimate conditions. Pronounced shifts in ISM strength over the deglaciation are apparent from the delta O-18 record, similarly to other records from monsoonal Asia. The ISM is weaker during the late glacial (LG) period and the Younger Dryas, and stronger during the BOlling-Allerod and Holocene. Local conditions inferred from the delta C-13 record appear to have changed less substantially over time, possibly related to the masking effect of changing precipitation seasonality. Time series analysis of the delta O-18 record reveals more chaotic conditions during the late glacial and higher predictability during the Holocene, likely related to the strengthening of the seasonal recurrence of the ISM with the onset of the Holocene. KW - Indian Summer Monsoon KW - stalagmite KW - oxygen isotopes KW - carbon isotopes KW - deglaciation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2017.72 SN - 0033-5894 SN - 1096-0287 VL - 88 SP - 458 EP - 471 PB - Cambridge Univ. Press CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lechleitner, Franziska A. A1 - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Ridley, Harriet E. A1 - Asmerom, Yemane A1 - Prufer, Keith M. A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Goswami, Bedartha A1 - Kennett, Douglas J. A1 - Aquino, Valorie V. A1 - Polyak, Victor A1 - Haug, Gerald H. A1 - Eglinton, Timothy I. A1 - Baldini, James U. L. T1 - Tropical rainfall over the last two millennia: evidence for a low-latitude hydrologic seesaw JF - Scientific reports N2 - The presence of a low-to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low-to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales. This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low-to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/srep45809 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 7 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Münch, Thomas A1 - Ho, Sze Ling A1 - Laepple, Thomas T1 - Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate(1). Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability(2,3). However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland(2), a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25454 SN - 0028-0836 SN - 1476-4687 VL - 554 IS - 7692 SP - 356 EP - 359 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reschke, Maria A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Laepple, Thomas T1 - Empirical estimate of the signal content of Holocene temperature proxy records JF - Climate of the past : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Proxy records from climate archives provide evidence about past climate changes, but the recorded signal is affected by non-climate-related effects as well as time uncertainty. As proxy-based climate reconstructions are frequently used to test climate models and to quantitatively infer past climate, we need to improve our understanding of the proxy record signal content as well as the uncertainties involved. In this study, we empirically estimate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of temperature proxy records used in global compilations of the middle to late Holocene (last 6000 years). This is achieved through a comparison of the correlation of proxy time series from nearby sites of three compilations and model time series extracted at the proxy sites from two transient climate model simulations: a Holocene simulation of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model and the Holocene part of the TraCE-21ka simulation. In all comparisons, we found the mean correlations of the proxy time series on centennial to millennial timescales to be low (R < 0.2), even for nearby sites, which resulted in low SNR estimates. The estimated SNRs depend on the assumed time uncertainty of the proxy records, the timescale analysed, and the model simulation used. Using the spatial correlation structure of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulation, the estimated SNRs on centennial timescales ranged from 0.05 - assuming no time uncertainty - to 0.5 for a time uncertainty of 400 years. On millennial timescales, the estimated SNRs were generally higher. Use of the TraCE-21ka correlation structure generally resulted in lower SNR estimates than for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. As the number of available high-resolution proxy records continues to grow, a more detailed analysis of the signal content of specific proxy types should become feasible in the near future. The estimated low signal content of Holocene temperature compilations should caution against over-interpretation of these multi-proxy and multisite syntheses until further studies are able to facilitate a better characterisation of the signal content in paleoclimate records. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-521-2019 SN - 1814-9324 SN - 1814-9332 VL - 15 IS - 2 SP - 521 EP - 537 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER -