TY - JOUR A1 - Soergel, Bjoern A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Weindl, Isabelle A1 - Rauner, Sebastian A1 - Dirnaichner, Alois A1 - Ruhe, Constantin A1 - Hofmann, Matthias A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon A1 - Leimbach, Marian A1 - Leininger, Julia A1 - Levesque, Antoine A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Pehl, Michaja A1 - Wingens, Christopher A1 - Baumstark, Lavinia A1 - Beier, Felicitas A1 - Dietrich, Jan Philipp A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - von Jeetze, Patrick A1 - Klein, David A1 - Koch, Johannes A1 - Pietzcker, Robert C. A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Popp, Alexander T1 - A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda JF - Nature climate change N2 - Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - climate-change policy KW - socioeconomic scenarios KW - sustainability Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 11 IS - 8 SP - 656 EP - 664 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Pietzcker, Robert C. A1 - Giannousakis, Anastasis A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal JF - Nature communications N2 - The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - climate sciences KW - environmental sciences Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 12 IS - 1 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merfort, Leon A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - Klein, David A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Kriegler, Elmar T1 - Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies JF - Nature climate change N2 - Controlling bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions is key to exploiting bioenergy for climate change mitigation. However, the effect of different land-use and energy sector policies on specific bioenergy emissions has not been studied so far. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND-MAgPIE, we derive a biofuel emission factor (EF) for different policy frameworks. We find that a uniform price on emissions from both sectors keeps biofuel emissions at 12 kg CO2 GJ−1. However, without land-use regulation, the EF increases substantially (64 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 80 years, 92 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 30 years). We also find that comprehensive coverage (>90%) of carbon-rich land areas worldwide is key to containing land-use emissions. Pricing emissions indirectly on the level of bioenergy consumption reduces total emissions by cutting bioenergy demand but fails to reduce the average EF. In the absence of comprehensive and timely land-use regulation, bioenergy thus may contribute less to climate change mitigation than assumed previously. KW - agriculture KW - climate-change mitigation KW - energy policy KW - energy supply and demand KW - environmental economics Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 13 IS - 7 SP - 685 EP - 692 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Madeddu, Silvia A1 - Merfort, Leon A1 - Ueckerdt, Falko A1 - Pehl, Michaja A1 - Pietzcker, Robert C. A1 - Rottoli, Marianna A1 - Schreyer, Felix A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Baumstark, Lavinia A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Dirnaichner, Alois A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - Levesque, Antoine A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Rodrigues, Renato A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Kriegler, Elmar T1 - Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios JF - Nature energy N2 - Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - energy modelling KW - renewable energy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z SN - 2058-7546 N1 - Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01000-1 VL - 7 IS - 1 SP - 32 EP - 42 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Cui, Ryna A1 - Dessens, Olivier A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - Emmerling, Johannes A1 - Morris, Jennifer Faye A1 - Fosse, Florian A1 - Fragkiadakis, Dimitris A1 - Fragkiadakis, Kostas A1 - Fragkos, Panagiotis A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Fujimori, Shinichiro A1 - Gernaat, David A1 - Guivarch, Céline A1 - Iyer, Gokul A1 - Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis A1 - Keppo, Ilkka A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Köberle, Alexandre A1 - Kolp, Peter A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Krüger, Christoph A1 - Leblanc, Florian A1 - Mittal, Shivika A1 - Paltsev, Sergey A1 - Rochedo, Pedro A1 - van Ruijven, Bas J. A1 - Sands, Ronald D. A1 - Sano, Fuminori A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Arroyo, Eveline Vasquez A1 - Wada, Kenichi A1 - Zakeri, Behnam T1 - Integrated assessment model diagnostics BT - key indicators and model evolution JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, to systematically and routinely assess IAM behaviour, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index, emission reduction type index, inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index and cost per abatement value. We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, assessing both older as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and used to indentify key differences between models and model versions. Moreover, we demonstrate that this comparison helps to link model behavior to model characteristics and assumptions. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend. KW - diagnostics KW - integrated assessment models KW - climate policy KW - Assessment Report IPCC KW - renewable energy KW - migration KW - AR6 Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf964 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 5 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merfort, Leon A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - Klein, David A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Kriegler, Elmar T1 - State of global land regulation inadequate to control biofuel land-use-change emissions JF - Nature climate change N2 - Under current land-use regulation, carbon dioxide emissions from biofuel production exceed those from fossil diesel combustion. Therefore, international agreements need to ensure the effective and globally comprehensive protection of natural land before modern bioenergy can effectively contribute to achieving carbon neutrality. KW - agriculture KW - climate-change mitigation KW - energy policy KW - energy supply and demand KW - environmental economics Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01711-7 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 13 IS - 7 SP - 610 EP - 612 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gruner, Friedemann A1 - Fuß, Sabine A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Minx, Jan C. A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Merfort, Anne T1 - Wie CO2-Entnahmen helfen können, die Klimaziele zu erreichen JF - Klima und Recht Y1 - 2022 UR - https://beck-online.beck.de/?typ=reference&y=300&z=KLIMR&b=2022&s=18&n=1 SN - 2750-0551 VL - 1 IS - 1 SP - 18 EP - 21 PB - C.H. Beck CY - München ER -