TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Verburg, Peter H.
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Lindner, Marcus
A1  - Verkerk, Pieter J.
A1  - Moiseyev, Alexander
A1  - Schrammeijer, Elizabeth
A1  - Helming, John
A1  - Tabeau, Andrzej
A1  - Schulp, Catharina J. E.
A1  - van der Zanden, Emma H.
A1  - Lavalle, Carlo
A1  - Batista e Silva, Filipe
A1  - Walz, Ariane
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
T1  - A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.
KW  - Land use change
KW  - Integrated modelling
KW  - Cross-scale interaction
KW  - Nature protection
KW  - Impact assessment
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 18
IS  - 3
SP  - 751
EP  - 762
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Soergel, Bjoern
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Weindl, Isabelle
A1  - Rauner, Sebastian
A1  - Dirnaichner, Alois
A1  - Ruhe, Constantin
A1  - Hofmann, Matthias
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Bertram, Christoph
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
A1  - Leimbach, Marian
A1  - Leininger, Julia
A1  - Levesque, Antoine
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Pehl, Michaja
A1  - Wingens, Christopher
A1  - Baumstark, Lavinia
A1  - Beier, Felicitas
A1  - Dietrich, Jan Philipp
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - von Jeetze, Patrick
A1  - Klein, David
A1  - Koch, Johannes
A1  - Pietzcker, Robert C.
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Popp, Alexander
T1  - A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries.
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - climate-change policy
KW  - socioeconomic scenarios
KW  - sustainability
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 11
IS  - 8
SP  - 656
EP  - 664
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Herrero, Mario
A1  - Thornton, Philip K.
A1  - Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
A1  - Palmer, Jeda
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
A1  - Pradhan, Prajal
A1  - Barrett, Christopher B.
A1  - Benton, Tim G.
A1  - Hall, Andrew
A1  - Pikaar, Ilje
A1  - Bogard, Jessica R.
A1  - Bonnett, Graham D.
A1  - Bryan, Brett A.
A1  - Campbell, Bruce M.
A1  - Christensen, Svend
A1  - Clark, Michael
A1  - Fanzo, Jessica
A1  - Godde, Cecile M.
A1  - Jarvis, Andy
A1  - Loboguerrero, Ana Maria
A1  - Mathys, Alexander
A1  - McIntyre, C. Lynne
A1  - Naylor, Rosamond L.
A1  - Nelson, Rebecca
A1  - Obersteiner, Michael
A1  - Parodi, Alejandro
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Ricketts, Katie
A1  - Smith, Pete
A1  - Valin, Hugo
A1  - Vermeulen, Sonja J.
A1  - Vervoort, Joost
A1  - van Wijk, Mark
A1  - van Zanten, Hannah H. E.
A1  - West, Paul C.
A1  - Wood, Stephen A.
A1  - Rockström, Johan
T1  - Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals
JF  - The lancet Planetary health
N2  - Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30277-1
SN  - 2542-5196
VL  - 5
IS  - 1
SP  - E50
EP  - E62
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Soergel, Bjoern
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Leimbach, Marian
A1  - Popp, Alexander
T1  - Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
JF  - Nature Communications
N2  - Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (-6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries. Ambitious climate policies can negatively impact the global poor by affecting income, food and energy prices. Here, the authors quantify this effect, and show that it can be compensated by national redistribution of the carbon pricing revenues in combination with international climate finance.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22315-9
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 12
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  -