TY - JOUR A1 - Bersalli, Germán A1 - Tröndle, Tim A1 - Heckmann, Leon A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Economic crises as critical junctures for policy and structural changes towards decarbonization BT - the cases of Spain and Germany JF - Climate policy N2 - Crises may act as tipping points for decarbonization pathways by triggering structural economic change or offering windows of opportunity for policy change. We investigate both types of effects of the global financial and COVID-19 crises on decarbonization in Spain and Germany through a quantitative Kaya-decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions and through a qualitative review of climate and energy policy changes. We show that the global financial crisis resulted in a critical juncture for Spanish CO2 emissions due to the combined effects of the deep economic recession and crisis-induced structural change, resulting in reductions in carbon and energy intensities and shifts in the economic structure. However, the crisis also resulted in a rollback of renewable energy policy, halting progress in the transition to green electricity. The impacts were less pronounced in Germany, where pre-existing decarbonization and policy trends continued after the crisis. Recovery packages had modest effects, primarily due to their temporary nature and the limited share of climate-related spending. The direct short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on CO2 emissions were more substantial in Spain than in Germany. The policy responses in both countries sought to align short-term economic recovery with the long-term climate change goals of decarbonization, but it is too soon to observe their lasting effects. Our findings show that crises can affect structural change and support decarbonization but suggest that such effects depend on pre-existing trends, the severity of the crisis and political manoeuvring during the crisis. KW - COVID-19 KW - climate policy KW - decarbonization KW - structural change KW - economic crisis KW - green recovery Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2024.2301750 SN - 1469-3062 SN - 1752-7457 VL - 24 IS - 3 SP - 410 EP - 427 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Quitzow, Rainer A1 - Bersalli, Germán A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Prontera, Andrea ED - Rayner, Tim ED - Szulecki, Kacper ED - Jordan, Andrew J. ED - Oberthür, Sebastian T1 - Green recovery BT - catalyst for an enhanced EU role in climate and energy policy? T2 - Handbook on European Union Climate Change Policy and Politics N2 - This chapter reviews how the European Union has fared in enabling a green recovery in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, drawing comparisons to developments after the financial crisis. The chapter focuses on the European Commission and its evolving role in promoting decarbonisation efforts in its Member States, paying particular attention to its role in financing investments in low-carbon assets. It considers both the direct effects of green stimulus policies on decarbonisation in the EU and how these actions have shaped the capacities of the Commission as an actor in the field of climate and energy policy. The analysis reveals a significant expansion of the Commission’s role compared to the period following the financial crisis. EU-level measures have provided incentives for Member States to direct large volumes of financing towards investments in climate-friendly assets. Nevertheless, the ultimate impact will largely be shaped by implementation at the national level. KW - European Union KW - green recovery KW - climate finance KW - European Green Deal KW - just transition Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-1-78990-698-1 SN - 978-1-78990-697-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906981.00039 SP - 351 EP - 366 PB - Edward Elgar Publishing ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bersalli, Germán A1 - Tröndle, Tim A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Most industrialised countries have peaked carbon dioxide emissions during economic crises through strengthened structural change JF - Communications earth & environment N2 - As the climate targets tighten and countries are impacted by several crises, understanding how and under which conditions carbon dioxide emissions peak and start declining is gaining importance. We assess the timing of emissions peaks in all major emitters (1965–2019) and the extent to which past economic crises have impacted structural drivers of emissions contributing to emission peaks. We show that in 26 of 28 countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession through the combined effect of lower economic growth (1.5 median percentage points per year) and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity (0.7) during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. In non-peaking countries, economic growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - economics KW - environmental economics KW - environmental studies Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00687-8 SN - 2662-4435 VL - 4 IS - 1 SP - 44 EP - 44 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Patt, Anthony A1 - Bersalli, Germán T1 - On the quality of emission reductions BT - observed effects of carbon pricing on investments, innovation, and operational shifts. A response to van den Bergh and Savin (2021) JF - Environmental and Resource Economics N2 - To meet the Paris Agreement targets, carbon emissions from the energy system must be eliminated by mid-century, implying vast investment and systemic change challenges ahead. In an article in WIREs Climate Change, we reviewed the empirical evidence for effects of carbon pricing systems on technological change towards full decarbonisation, finding weak or no effects. In response, van den Bergh and Savin (2021) criticised our review in an article in this journal, claiming that it is "unfair", incomplete and flawed in various ways. Here, we respond to this critique by elaborating on the conceptual roots of our argumentation based on the importance of short-term emission reductions and longer-term technological change, and by expanding the review. This verifies our original findings: existing carbon pricing schemes have sometimes reduced emissions, mainly through switching to lower-carbon fossil fuels and efficiency increases, and have triggered weak innovation increases. There is no evidence that carbon pricing systems have triggered zero-carbon investments, and scarce but consistent evidence that they have not. Our findings highlight the importance of adapting and improving climate policy assessment metrics beyond short-term emissions by also assessing the quality of emission reductions and the progress of underlying technological change. KW - Carbon pricing KW - Climate policy KW - Decarbonisation KW - Technological change KW - Energy transition Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00708-8 SN - 0924-6460 SN - 1573-1502 VL - 83 IS - 3 SP - 733 EP - 758 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER -