TY - JOUR A1 - Kamali, Bahareh A1 - Jahanbakhshi, Farshid A1 - Dogaru, Diana A1 - Dietrich, Jörg A1 - Nendel, Claas A1 - AghaKouchak, Amir T1 - Probabilistic modeling of crop-yield loss risk under drought: a spatial showcase for sub-Saharan Africa JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Assessing the risk of yield loss in African drought-affected regions is key to identify feasible solutions for stable crop production. Recent studies have demonstrated that Copula-based probabilistic methods are well suited for such assessment owing to reasonably inferring important properties in terms of exceedance probability and joint dependence of different characterization. However, insufficient attention has been given to quantifying the probability of yield loss and determining the contribution of climatic factors. This study applies the Copula theory to describe the dependence between drought and crop yield anomalies for rainfed maize, millet, and sorghum crops in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The environmental policy integrated climate model, calibrated with Food and Agriculture Organization country-level yield data, was used to simulate yields across SSA (1980-2012). The results showed that the severity of yield loss due to drought had a higher magnitude than the severity of drought itself. Sensitivity analysis to identify factors contributing to drought and high-temperature stresses for all crops showed that the amount of precipitation during vegetation and grain filling was the main driver of crop yield loss, and the effect of temperature was stronger for sorghum than for maize and millet. The results demonstrate the added value of probabilistic methods for drought-impact assessment. For future studies, we recommend looking into factors influencing drought and high-temperature stresses as individual/concurrent climatic extremes. KW - Copula theory KW - crop model KW - drought stress KW - joint probability KW - risk Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ec1 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 17 IS - 2 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gomez Zapata, Juan Camilo A1 - Zafrir, Raquel A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Merino, Yvonne T1 - Towards a sensitivity analysis in seismic risk with probabilistic building exposure models BT - an application in Valparaiso, Chile using ancillary open-source data and parametric ground motions JF - ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information N2 - Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment. KW - exposure KW - buildings KW - Bayesian model KW - downscaling KW - OpenStreetMap KW - ground motion fields KW - sensitivity KW - earthquake KW - vulnerability KW - risk Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11020113 SN - 2220-9964 VL - 11 IS - 2 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sairam, Nivedita A1 - Brill, Fabio Alexander A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Farrag, Mostafa A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Viet Dung Nguyen, A1 - Lüdtke, Stefan A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Process-based flood risk assessment for Germany JF - Earth's future / American Geophysical Union N2 - Large-scale flood risk assessments are crucial for decision making, especially with respect to new flood defense schemes, adaptation planning and estimating insurance premiums. We apply the process-based Regional Flood Model (RFM) to simulate a 5000-year flood event catalog for all major catchments in Germany and derive risk curves based on the losses per economic sector. The RFM uses a continuous process simulation including a multisite, multivariate weather generator, a hydrological model considering heterogeneous catchment processes, a coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model considering dike overtopping and hinterland storage, spatially explicit sector-wise exposure data and empirical multi-variable loss models calibrated for Germany. For all components, uncertainties in the data and models are estimated. We estimate the median Expected Annual Damage (EAD) and Value at Risk at 99.5% confidence for Germany to be euro0.529 bn and euro8.865 bn, respectively. The commercial sector dominates by making about 60% of the total risk, followed by the residential sector. The agriculture sector gets affected by small return period floods and only contributes to less than 3% to the total risk. The overall EAD is comparable to other large-scale estimates. However, the estimation of losses for specific return periods is substantially improved. The spatial consistency of the risk estimates avoids the large overestimation of losses for rare events that is common in other large-scale assessments with homogeneous return periods. Thus, the process-based, spatially consistent flood risk assessment by RFM is an important step forward and will serve as a benchmark for future German-wide flood risk assessments. KW - risk model chain KW - continuous simulation KW - expected annual damage KW - risk KW - curves KW - multi-sector risk Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002259 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 9 IS - 10 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Van Hout, Cristopher V. A1 - Tachmazidou, Ioanna A1 - Backman, Joshua D. A1 - Hoffman, Joshua D. A1 - Liu, Daren A1 - Pandey, Ashutosh K. A1 - Gonzaga-Jauregui, Claudia A1 - Khalid, Shareef A1 - Ye, Bin A1 - Banerjee, Nilanjana A1 - Li, Alexander H. A1 - O'Dushlaine, Colm A1 - Marcketta, Anthony A1 - Staples, Jeffrey A1 - Schurmann, Claudia A1 - Hawes, Alicia A1 - Maxwell, Evan A1 - Barnard, Leland A1 - Lopez, Alexander A1 - Penn, John A1 - Habegger, Lukas A1 - Blumenfeld, Andrew L. A1 - Bai, Xiaodong A1 - O'Keeffe, Sean A1 - Yadav, Ashish A1 - Praveen, Kavita A1 - Jones, Marcus A1 - Salerno, William J. A1 - Chung, Wendy K. A1 - Surakka, Ida A1 - Willer, Cristen J. A1 - Hveem, Kristian A1 - Leader, Joseph B. A1 - Carey, David J. A1 - Ledbetter, David H. A1 - Cardon, Lon A1 - Yancopoulos, George D. A1 - Economides, Aris A1 - Coppola, Giovanni A1 - Shuldiner, Alan R. A1 - Balasubramanian, Suganthi A1 - Cantor, Michael A1 - Nelson, Matthew R. A1 - Whittaker, John A1 - Reid, Jeffrey G. A1 - Marchini, Jonathan A1 - Overton, John D. A1 - Scott, Robert A. A1 - Abecasis, Goncalo R. A1 - Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M. A1 - Baras, Aris T1 - Exome sequencing and characterization of 49,960 individuals in the UK Biobank JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - The UK Biobank is a prospective study of 502,543 individuals, combining extensive phenotypic and genotypic data with streamlined access for researchers around the world(1). Here we describe the release of exome-sequence data for the first 49,960 study participants, revealing approximately 4 million coding variants (of which around 98.6% have a frequency of less than 1%). The data include 198,269 autosomal predicted loss-of-function (LOF) variants, a more than 14-fold increase compared to the imputed sequence. Nearly all genes (more than 97%) had at least one carrier with a LOF variant, and most genes (more than 69%) had at least ten carriers with a LOF variant. We illustrate the power of characterizing LOF variants in this population through association analyses across 1,730 phenotypes. In addition to replicating established associations, we found novel LOF variants with large effects on disease traits, includingPIEZO1on varicose veins,COL6A1on corneal resistance,MEPEon bone density, andIQGAP2andGMPRon blood cell traits. We further demonstrate the value of exome sequencing by surveying the prevalence of pathogenic variants of clinical importance, and show that 2% of this population has a medically actionable variant. Furthermore, we characterize the penetrance of cancer in carriers of pathogenicBRCA1andBRCA2variants. Exome sequences from the first 49,960 participants highlight the promise of genome sequencing in large population-based studies and are now accessible to the scientific community.
Exome sequences from the first 49,960 participants in the UK Biobank highlight the promise of genome sequencing in large population-based studies and are now accessible to the scientific community. KW - clinical exome KW - breast-cancer KW - mutations KW - recommendations KW - gene KW - metaanalysis KW - variants, KW - BRCA1 KW - risk KW - susceptibility Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2853-0 SN - 0028-0836 SN - 1476-4687 VL - 586 IS - 7831 SP - 749 EP - 756 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Moraske, Svenja A1 - Penrose, Anna A1 - Wyschkon, Anne A1 - Kohn, Juliane A1 - Rauscher, Larissa A1 - von Aster, Michael G. A1 - Esser, Günter T1 - Prävention von Rechenstörungen T1 - Prevention of Dyscalculia BT - Kurz- und mittelfristige Effekte einer Förderung der mathematischen Kompetenzen bei Risikokindern im Vorschulalter BT - Short-Term and Intermediate Effects of Stimulating Numerical Competencies for Children at Risk in Preschool JF - Kindheit und Entwicklung N2 - Ziel ist die Überprüfung der kurz- und mittelfristigen Wirksamkeit einer vorschulischen Förderung des Mengen- und Zahlenverständnisses bei Kindern mit einem Risiko für die Entwicklung einer Rechenstörung. Es wurden 32 Risikokinder mit einer Kombination aus den Förderprogrammen Mathematik im Vorschulalter und Mengen, zählen, Zahlen im letzten Kindergartenjahr von den Erzieherinnen trainiert und mit 38 untrainierten Risikokindern verglichen. Hinsichtlich der kurzfristigen Wirksamkeit zeigten sich positive Trainingseffekte auf die numerischen Leistungen im letzten Kindergartenjahr. Es ließen sich keine signifikanten mittelfristigen Trainingseffekte auf die Rechenleistungen im zweiten Halbjahr der 1. Klasse finden. Das eingesetzte vorschulische Präventionsprogramm leistete danach einen wichtigen Beitrag zur kurzfristigen Verbesserung der mathematischen Basiskompetenzen. N2 - A slew of studies has shown that training programs teaching numerical competencies have positive short-term effects on mathematical performance. The results for the intermediate effects are not consistent and there are only a few studies on this issue. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate the short-term and intermediate effects of a preschool training program stimulating numerical competencies for children at risk of developing dyscalculia (<= 10th percentile). During the last kindergarten year, 32 children at risk were trained with a combination of the intervention Mathematik im Vorschulalter and Mengen, zahlen, Zahlen by their kindergarten teachers, who were trained and supervised. Contents of the preschool training were: counting, number knowledge up to 10, comprehension of quantity concept, visual differentiation, spatial ability, simple arithmetic operation, handling of symbols, realizing abstract-logical correlations, and identifying cause-effect relations. The training lasted 11 weeks and took place twice a week (session duration = 30-40 min). Children who participated in at least 50% of the sessions were included. The control group consisted of 38 untrained children at risk. For measuring numerical competencies in kindergarten, a subtest of the instrument Basisdiagnostik Umschriebener Entwicklungsstorungen im Vorschulalter - Version III (BUEVA-III) was used, and for measuring mathematical performance the test Deutsche Mathematiktest fur erste Klassen (DEMAT 1+) was used. Before the training there were no group differences between the training and control group regarding mathematical performance and overall intelligence. The training showed positive short-term effects for numerical competencies in the last kindergarten year (medium effect size). While trained children could significantly improve their mathematical competencies to an average level (from 34 to 41 t-value points), the performances of the untrained children stayed below average. Unfortunately, there were no significant intermediate effects for mathematical performance in the second half of the first grade. Regarding the diagnosis of dyscalculia as defined by the ICD-10, it was not possible to gather a sufficiently large sample in the first grade fulfilling the criteria to test differences between training and control groups. Methodological limitations of this study were the missing random allocation to treatment conditions, a large drop-out rate, and long testing periods. The preschool training that was used to stimulate numerical competencies contributed significantly toward improving numerical competencies in the short term. Further investigations will determine the long-term effects of the training in the second and third grade. This is particularly important because dyscalculia occurring from the second grade on is a stable phenomenon. KW - developmental dyscalculia KW - numerical competence KW - prevention KW - risk KW - specific developmental disorder KW - Rechenstörung KW - Zahlen- und Mengenverständnis KW - Prävention KW - Risiko KW - Umschriebene Entwicklungsstörung Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1026/0942-5403/a000242 SN - 0942-5403 SN - 2190-6246 VL - 27 IS - 1 SP - 31 EP - 42 PB - Hogrefe CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Li, Chen A1 - Stoma, Svetlana A1 - Lotta, Luca A. A1 - Warner, Sophie A1 - Albrecht, Eva A1 - Allione, Alessandra A1 - Arp, Pascal P. A1 - Broer, Linda A1 - Buxton, Jessica L. A1 - Boeing, Heiner A1 - Langenberg, Claudia A1 - Codd, Veryan T1 - Genome-wide association analysis in humans links nucleotide metabolism to leukocyte telomere length JF - American Journal of Human Genetics N2 - Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a heritable biomarker of genomic aging. In this study, we perform a genome-wide meta-analysis of LTL by pooling densely genotyped and imputed association results across large-scale European-descent studies including up to 78,592 individuals. We identify 49 genomic regions at a false dicovery rate (FDR) < 0.05 threshold and prioritize genes at 31, with five highlighting nucleotide metabolism as an important regulator of LTL. We report six genome-wide significant loci in or near SENP7, MOB1B, CARMIL1 , PRRC2A, TERF2, and RFWD3, and our results support recently identified PARP1, POT1, ATM, and MPHOSPH6 loci. Phenome-wide analyses in >350,000 UK Biobank participants suggest that genetically shorter telomere length increases the risk of hypothyroidism and decreases the risk of thyroid cancer, lymphoma, and a range of proliferative conditions. Our results replicate previously reported associations with increased risk of coronary artery disease and lower risk for multiple cancer types. Our findings substantially expand current knowledge on genes that regulate LTL and their impact on human health and disease. KW - Mendelian randomization KW - risk KW - variants KW - disease KW - cancer KW - loci KW - database KW - genes KW - heart KW - gwas Y1 - 2019 VL - 106 IS - 3 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Li, Chen A1 - Stoma, Svetlana A1 - Lotta, Luca A. A1 - Warner, Sophie A1 - Albrecht, Eva A1 - Allione, Alessandra A1 - Arp, Pascal P. A1 - Broer, Linda A1 - Buxton, Jessica L. A1 - Boeing, Heiner A1 - Langenberg, Claudia A1 - Codd, Veryan T1 - Genome-wide association analysis in humans links nucleotide metabolism to leukocyte telomere length T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a heritable biomarker of genomic aging. In this study, we perform a genome-wide meta-analysis of LTL by pooling densely genotyped and imputed association results across large-scale European-descent studies including up to 78,592 individuals. We identify 49 genomic regions at a false dicovery rate (FDR) < 0.05 threshold and prioritize genes at 31, with five highlighting nucleotide metabolism as an important regulator of LTL. We report six genome-wide significant loci in or near SENP7, MOB1B, CARMIL1 , PRRC2A, TERF2, and RFWD3, and our results support recently identified PARP1, POT1, ATM, and MPHOSPH6 loci. Phenome-wide analyses in >350,000 UK Biobank participants suggest that genetically shorter telomere length increases the risk of hypothyroidism and decreases the risk of thyroid cancer, lymphoma, and a range of proliferative conditions. Our results replicate previously reported associations with increased risk of coronary artery disease and lower risk for multiple cancer types. Our findings substantially expand current knowledge on genes that regulate LTL and their impact on human health and disease. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1205 KW - Mendelian randomization KW - risk KW - variants KW - disease KW - cancer KW - loci KW - database KW - genes KW - heart KW - gwas Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-526843 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 3 ER - TY - THES A1 - Ganschow, Constantin Alexander T1 - Die Konversion im Asylverfahren T2 - Acta Iuridica Universitatis Potsdamiensis N2 - Der Verfasser beschäftigt sich mit der Frage des Glaubensübertritts in einem Asylverfahren. Dabei nimmt er Zeitpunkt, Art und Umstände des Religionswechsels in den Blick. Ferner untersucht er, wie die sogenannte Konversion von den zuständigen Behörden und Gerichten zu behandeln und zu bewerten ist. Einführend gibt er einen Überblick zum völkerrechtlichen Schutz der Religions- und Weltanschauungsfreiheit sowie typischen Gefährdungslagen. Überdies befasst er sich mit den Rechtsgrundlagen des Asyl- und Flüchtlingsschutzrechts und stellt Verbindungen zum Flucht- und Verfolgungsgrund der Religion her. Schwerpunkt bildet die Untersuchung der Verfahrensstadien, in denen die Konversion relevant wird. Dabei berücksichtigt der Verfasser die nationale und europäische Rechtsprechung. Von besonderer Bedeutung sind die Ausführungen zum Zusammenspiel von staatlichen Ermittlungspflichten und Mitwirkungsgeboten von Asylantragstellenden, wobei den Besonderheiten des grund- und menschenrechtlichen Mehrebenensystems Rechnung getragen wird. Zentral sind ferner die Ausführungen zum Umgang mit Taufurkunden und sonstigen Bescheinigungen über die religiöse Überzeugung. Besonderes Gewicht liegt auf der verfassungsrechtlichen Stellung der Religionsgemeinschaften und der Frage, ob die Entscheidung einer Religionsgemeinschaft, ein neues Mitglied aufzunehmen, die Behörde im Asylverfahren bindet. Diesem Problem widmet sich der Verfasser unter Heranziehung der relevanten Literaturstimmen und einschlägigen Rechtsprechung. Der rechtswissenschaftliche Beitrag bietet den beteiligten Akteuren nicht nur eine Einführung in das Themengebiet des Glaubensübertritts im Asylverfahren, sondern gibt den Lesenden auch eine praxistaugliche Handlungsunterstützung rund um die wichtigsten Fragen einer Konversion im Asylverfahren an die Hand. Praktische Bezüge entstehen beispielsweise dadurch, dass wichtige Impulse und Empfehlungen für eine gleichermaßen moderne, rechtsstaatliche und grundrechtsorientierte Verfahrensführung entwickelt werden. N2 - This thesis addresses questions related to the conversion of faith during an asylum procedure. It explores how these conversions of faith are treated and assessed by the relevant authorities and courts, whereby the timing, nature and circumstances of the conversion is taken into account. The thesis begins with an overview of the fundamental human right of freedom of religion and belief and typical risks associated to this. In addition, the legal basis of asylum and refugee protection law is discussed and linked to religion as a reason for flight and persecution. Next, procedural stages which are affected by a conversion of faith are analysed in-depth. Here national and European case law is taken into account. Of particular importance is the interplay of the state's duty to inquire and the co-operation requirements of the asylum seeker, whereby special attention is placed on the multi-level governance of fundamental human rights. The handeling of baptismal certificates and other certificates of religious conviction is another important consideration. Particular emphasis is placed on the constitutional standing of the religious communities and the question of whether the decision of a religious community to accept a new member binds the authority in the asylum procedure. This problem is analysed with reference to current literature and relevant rulings. The jurisprudential thesis not only offers the reader an introduction to the topic of faith conversion during in the asylum procedure, but also practice oriented support around the most pressing questions of dealing with these conversions during an asylum procedure. Specific recommendations and impulses are presented to develop an equally modern, constitutional and fundamental rights-oriented procedural management. T3 - Acta Iuridica Universitatis Potsdamiensis - 7 KW - Anhörung KW - Asyl KW - Asylantrag KW - Asylgesetz KW - Asylrecht KW - Asylverfahren KW - Begleitung KW - Bescheinigung KW - Beweismittel KW - Ehrenamtliche KW - Ermittlungspflicht KW - Flucht KW - Flüchtling KW - Flüchtlingsschutz KW - Folgeantrag KW - Gemeinde KW - Glauben KW - Glaubensfreiheit KW - Glaubensprüfung KW - Glaubenswechsel KW - Mitwirkungspflicht KW - Nachfluchtgrund KW - Religiöse Verfolgung KW - Religion KW - Religionsfreiheit KW - Religionsgemeinschaft KW - Religions- und Weltanschauungsfreiheit KW - Religionswechsel KW - Sachverhaltsaufklärung KW - Sachverhaltsaufklärungspflicht KW - Selbstbestimmungsrecht KW - Selbstbestimmungsrecht der Religionsgemeinschaften KW - Sonderbeauftragte KW - Sonderbeauftragte für religiöse Verfolgung KW - Taufurkunde KW - Glaubensübertritt KW - Kirche KW - Konversion KW - Verfolgung KW - Verfolgungsgrund KW - asylum KW - asylum procedure KW - baptismal certificate KW - certificate of religious conviction KW - conversion KW - faith KW - flight KW - freedom of religion and belief KW - non-refoulement KW - post-flight activities KW - refugee KW - refugee law KW - refugee protection KW - religion KW - risk KW - persecution KW - protection Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-505819 SN - 978-3-86956-509-5 SN - 2199-9686 SN - 2199-9694 IS - 7 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Biterova, Ekaterina A1 - Esmaeeli Moghaddam Tabalvandani, Mariam A1 - Alanen, Heli I. A1 - Saaranen, Mirva A1 - Ruddock, Lloyd W. T1 - Structures of Angptl3 and Angptl4 BT - modulators of triglyceride levels and coronary artery disease T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Coronary artery disease is the most common cause of death globally and is linked to a number of risk factors including serum low density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein, triglycerides and lipoprotein(a). Recently two proteins, angiopoietin-like protein 3 and 4, have emerged from genetic studies as being factors that significantly modulate plasma triglyceride levels and coronary artery disease. The exact function and mechanism of action of both proteins remains to be elucidated, however, mutations in these proteins results in up to 34% reduction in coronary artery disease and inhibition of function results in reduced plasma triglyceride levels. Here we report the crystal structures of the fibrinogen-like domains of both proteins. These structures offer new insights into the reported loss of function mutations, the mechanisms of action of the proteins and open up the possibility for the rational design of low molecular weight inhibitors for intervention in coronary artery disease. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1048 KW - angiopoitin-like 4 KW - of-function mutations KW - cardiovascular-disease KW - lipoprotein-lipase KW - heart-disease KW - risk KW - recognition KW - protein KW - metaanalysis KW - association KW - cardiovascular biology KW - x-ray crystallography Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-467943 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1048 ER - TY - THES A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Improved flood risk assessment BT - new data sources and methods for flood risk modelling N2 - Rivers have always flooded their floodplains. Over 2.5 billion people worldwide have been affected by flooding in recent decades. The economic damage is also considerable, averaging 100 billion US dollars per year. There is no doubt that damage and other negative effects of floods can be avoided. However, this has a price: financially and politically. Costs and benefits can be estimated through risk assessments. Questions about the location and frequency of floods, about the objects that could be affected and their vulnerability are of importance for flood risk managers, insurance companies and politicians. Thus, both variables and factors from the fields of hydrology and sociol-economics play a role with multi-layered connections. One example are dikes along a river, which on the one hand contain floods, but on the other hand, by narrowing the natural floodplains, accelerate the flood discharge and increase the danger of flooding for the residents downstream. Such larger connections must be included in the assessment of flood risk. However, in current procedures this is accompanied by simplifying assumptions. Risk assessments are therefore fuzzy and associated with uncertainties. This thesis investigates the benefits and possibilities of new data sources for improving flood risk assessment. New methods and models are developed, which take the mentioned interrelations better into account and also quantify the existing uncertainties of the model results, and thus enable statements about the reliability of risk estimates. For this purpose, data on flood events from various sources are collected and evaluated. This includes precipitation and flow records at measuring stations as well as for instance images from social media, which can help to delineate the flooded areas and estimate flood damage with location information. Machine learning methods have been successfully used to recognize and understand correlations between floods and impacts from a wide range of data and to develop improved models. Risk models help to develop and evaluate strategies to reduce flood risk. These tools also provide advanced insights into the interplay of various factors and on the expected consequences of flooding. This work shows progress in terms of an improved assessment of flood risks by using diverse data from different sources with innovative methods as well as by the further development of models. Flood risk is variable due to economic and climatic changes, and other drivers of risk. In order to keep the knowledge about flood risks up-to-date, robust, efficient and adaptable methods as proposed in this thesis are of increasing importance. N2 - Flüsse haben seit jeher ihre Auen überflutet. In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten waren weltweit über 2,5 Milliarden Menschen durch Hochwasser betroffen. Auch der ökonomische Schaden ist mit durchschnittlich 100 Milliarden US Dollar pro Jahr erheblich. Zweifelsohne können Schäden und andere negative Auswirkungen von Hochwasser vermieden werden. Allerdings hat dies einen Preis: finanziell und politisch. Kosten und Nutzen lassen sich durch Risikobewertungen abschätzen. Dabei werden in der Wasserwirtschaft, von Versicherungen und der Politik Fragen nach dem Ort und der Häufigkeit von Überflutungen, nach den Dingen, die betroffen sein könnten und deren Anfälligkeit untersucht. Somit spielen sowohl Größen und Faktoren aus den Bereichen der Hydrologie und Sozioökonmie mit vielschichtigen Zusammenhängen eine Rolle. Ein anschauliches Beispiel sind Deiche entlang eines Flusses, die einerseits in ihrem Abschnitt Überflutungen eindämmen, andererseits aber durch die Einengung der natürlichen Vorländer den Hochwasserabfluss beschleunigen und die Gefährdung für die Anlieger flussab verschärfen. Solche größeren Zusammenhänge müssen in der Bewertung des Hochwasserrisikos einbezogen werden. In derzeit gängigen Verfahren geht dies mit vereinfachenden Annahmen einher. Risikoabschätzungen sind daher unscharf und mit Unsicherheiten verbunden. Diese Arbeit untersucht den Nutzen und die Möglichkeiten neuer Datensätze für eine Verbesserung der Hochwasserrisikoabschätzung. Es werden neue Methoden und Modelle entwickelt, die die angesprochenen Zusammenhänge stärker berücksichtigen und auch die bestehenden Unsicherheiten der Modellergebnisse beziffern und somit die Verlässlichkeit der getroffenen Aussagen einordnen lassen. Dafür werden Daten zu Hochwasserereignissen aus verschiedenen Quellen erfasst und ausgewertet. Dazu zählen neben Niederschlags-und Durchflussaufzeichnungen an Messstationen beispielsweise auch Bilder aus sozialen Medien, die mit Ortsangaben und Bildinhalten helfen können, die Überflutungsflächen abzugrenzen und Hochwasserschäden zu schätzen. Verfahren des Maschinellen Lernens wurden erfolgreich eingesetzt, um aus vielfältigen Daten, Zusammenhänge zwischen Hochwasser und Auswirkungen zu erkennen, besser zu verstehen und verbesserte Modelle zu entwickeln. Solche Risikomodelle helfen bei der Entwicklung und Bewertung von Strategien zur Minderung des Hochwasserrisikos. Diese Werkzeuge ermöglichen darüber hinaus Einblicke in das Zusammenspiel verschiedener Faktoren sowie Aussagen zu den zu erwartenden Folgen auch von Hochwassern, die das bisher bekannte Ausmaß übersteigen. Diese Arbeit verzeichnet Fortschritte in Bezug auf eine verbesserte Bewertung von Hochwasserrisiken durch die Nutzung vielfältiger Daten aus unterschiedlichen Quellen mit innovativen Verfahren sowie der Weiterentwicklung von Modellen. Das Hochwasserrisiko unterliegt durch wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen und klimatische Veränderungen einem steten Wandel. Um das Wissen über Risiken aktuell zu halten sind robuste, leistungs- und anpassungsfähige Verfahren wie sie in dieser Arbeit vorgestellt werden von zunehmender Bedeutung. T2 - Verbesserte Hochwasserrisikobewertung: Neue Datenquellen und Methoden für die Risikomodellierung KW - flood KW - risk KW - vulnerability KW - machine learning KW - uncertainty KW - Hochwasser KW - Risiko KW - Vulnerabilität KW - Maschinelles Lernen KW - Unsicherheiten Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-480240 ER -