TY - JOUR A1 - Silverii, Francesca A1 - Maccaferri, Francesco A1 - Richter, Gudrun A1 - Gonzalez Cansado, Borja A1 - Wang, Rongjiang A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Poroelastic model in a vertically sealed gas storage BT - a case study from cyclic injection/production in a carbonate aquifer JF - Geophysical journal international / the Royal Astronomical Society, the Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft and the European Geophysical Society N2 - Natural gas can be temporarily stored in a variety of underground facilities, such as depleted gas and oil fields, natural aquifers and caverns in salt rocks. Being extensively monitored during operations, these systems provide a favourable opportunity to investigate how pressure varies in time and space and possibly induces/triggers earthquakes on nearby faults. Elaborate and detailed numerical modelling techniques are often applied to study gas reservoirs. Here we show the possibilities and discuss the limitations of a flexible and easily formulated tool that can be straightforwardly applied to simulate temporal pore-pressure variations and study the relation with recorded microseismic events. We use the software POEL (POroELastic diffusion and deformation) which computes the poroelastic response to fluid injection/extraction in a horizontally layered poroelastic structure. We further develop its application to address the presence of vertical impermeable faults bounding the reservoir and of multiple injection/extraction sources. Exploiting available information on the reservoir geometry and physical parameters, and records of injection/extraction rates for a gas reservoir in southern Europe, we perform an extensive parametric study considering different model configurations. Comparing modelled spatiotemporal pore-pressure variations with in situ measurements, we show that the inclusion of vertical impermeable faults provides an improvement in reproducing the observations and results in pore-pressure accumulation near the faults and in a variation of the temporal pore-pressure diffusion pattern. To study the relation between gas storage activity and recorded local microseismicity, we applied different seismicity models based on the estimated porepressure distribution. This analysis helps to understand the spatial distribution of seismicity and its temporal modulation. The results show that the observed microseismicity could be partly linked to the storage activity, but the contribution of tectonic background seismicity cannot be excluded. KW - Permeability and porosity KW - Gas and hydrate systems KW - Europe KW - Induced KW - seismicity Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab268 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 227 IS - 2 SP - 1322 EP - 1338 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Büyükakpınar, Pınar A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Jamalreyhani, Mohammadreza A1 - Heimann, Sebastian A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Reservoir-triggered earthquakes around the Atatürk Dam (Southeastern Turkey) JF - Frontiers in Earth Science N2 - Reservoir-triggered seismicity has been observed near dams during construction, impoundment, and cyclic filling in many parts of the earth. In Turkey, the number of dams has increased substantially over the last decade, with Ataturk Dam being the largest dam in Turkey with a total water capacity of 48.7 billion m(3). After the construction of the dam, the monitoring network has improved. Considering earthquakes above the long-term completeness magnitude of M-C = 3.5, the local seismicity rate has substantially increased after the filling of the reservoir. Recently, two damaging earthquakes of M-w 5.5 and M-w 5.1 occurred in the town of Samsat near the Ataturk Reservoir in 2017 and 2018, respectively. In this study, we analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity and its source properties in relation to the temporal water-level variations and the stresses resulting from surface loading and pore-pressure diffusion. We find that water-level and seismicity rate are anti-correlated, which is explained by the stabilization effect of the gravitational induced stress imposed by water loading on the local faults. On the other hand, we find that the overall effective stress in the seismogenic zone increased over decades due to pore-pressure diffusion, explaining the enhanced background seismicity during recent years. Additionally, we observe a progressive decrease of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Our results indicate that the stressing rate finally focused on the region where the two damaging earthquakes occurred in 2017 and 2018. KW - reservoir-triggered seismicity KW - earthquake source parameters KW - stress-change KW - seismic hazard KW - Ataturk Dam Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.663385 SN - 2296-6463 VL - 9 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian T1 - A Coulomb stress response model for time-dependent earthquake forecasts JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - Seismicity models are probabilistic forecasts of earthquake rates to support seismic hazard assessment. Physics-based models allow extrapolating previously unsampled parameter ranges and enable conclusions on underlying tectonic or human-induced processes. The Coulomb Failure (CF) and the rate-and-state (RS) models are two widely used physics-based seismicity models both assuming pre-existing populations of faults responding to Coulomb stress changes. The CF model depends on the absolute Coulomb stress and assumes instantaneous triggering if stress exceeds a threshold, while the RS model only depends on stress changes. Both models can predict background earthquake rates and time-dependent stress effects, but the RS model with its three independent parameters can additionally explain delayed aftershock triggering. This study introduces a modified CF model where the instantaneous triggering is replaced by a mean time-to-failure depending on the absolute stress value. For the specific choice of an exponential dependence on stress and a stationary initial seismicity rate, we show that the model leads to identical results as the RS model and reproduces the Omori-Utsu relation for aftershock decays as well stress-shadowing effects. Thus, both CF and RS models can be seen as special cases of the new model. However, the new stress response model can also account for subcritical initial stress conditions and alternative functions of the mean time-to-failure depending on the problem and fracture mode. KW - seismicity KW - physics based model KW - earthquake physics Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024443 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 127 IS - 9 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sharma, Shubham A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Seismicity parameters dependence on main shock-induced co-seismic stress JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) and the Omori-Utsu (OU) law describe the earthquakes' energy release and temporal clustering and are thus of great importance for seismic hazard assessment. Motivated by experimental results, which indicate stress-dependent parameters, we consider a combined global data set of 127 main shock-aftershock sequences and perform a systematic study of the relationship between main shock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity patterns. For this purpose, we calculate space-dependent Coulomb Stress (& UDelta;CFS) and alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the surrounding of the main shocks. Our results indicate a clear positive correlation between the GR b-value and the induced stress, contrasting expectations from laboratory experiments and suggesting a crucial role of structural heterogeneity and strength variations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the OU parameters c and p systematically decrease for increasing stress changes. Our partly unexpected findings can have an important impact on future estimations of the aftershock hazard. KW - earthquake hazards KW - earthquake interaction KW - forecasting and prediction KW - statistical seismology KW - b-value Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad201 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 235 IS - 1 SP - 509 EP - 517 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Flóvenz, Ólafur G. A1 - Wang, Rongjiang A1 - Hersir, Gylfi Páll A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Vassileva, Magdalena A1 - Drouin, Vincent A1 - Heimann, Sebastian A1 - Isken, Marius Paul A1 - Gudnason, Egill Á. A1 - Ágústsson, Kristján A1 - Ágústsdóttir, Thorbjörg A1 - Horálek, Josef A1 - Motagh, Mahdi A1 - Walter, Thomas R. A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Jousset, Philippe A1 - Krawczyk, Charlotte M. A1 - Milkereit, Claus T1 - Cyclical geothermal unrest as a precursor to Iceland's 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption JF - Nature geoscience N2 - Understanding and constraining the source of geodetic deformation in volcanic areas is an important component of hazard assessment. Here, we analyse deformation and seismicity for one year before the March 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland. We generate a high-resolution catalogue of 39,500 earthquakes using optical cable recordings and develop a poroelastic model to describe three pre-eruptional uplift and subsidence cycles at the Svartsengi geothermal field, 8 km west of the eruption site. We find the observed deformation is best explained by cyclic intrusions into a permeable aquifer by a fluid injected at 4 km depth below the geothermal field, with a total volume of 0.11 ± 0.05 km3 and a density of 850 ± 350 kg m–3. We therefore suggest that ingression of magmatic CO2 can explain the geodetic, gravity and seismic data, although some contribution of magma cannot be excluded. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00930-5 SN - 1752-0894 SN - 1752-0908 VL - 15 IS - 5 SP - 397 EP - 404 PB - Nature Research CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Molkenthin, Christian A1 - Donner, Christian A1 - Reich, Sebastian A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Opper, Manfred T1 - GP-ETAS: semiparametric Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence model JF - Statistics and Computing N2 - The spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. While traditional inference methods provide only point estimates of the model parameters, we aim at a fully Bayesian treatment of model inference, allowing naturally to incorporate prior knowledge and uncertainty quantification of the resulting estimates. Therefore, we introduce a highly flexible, non-parametric representation for the spatially varying ETAS background intensity through a Gaussian process (GP) prior. Combined with classical triggering functions this results in a new model formulation, namely the GP-ETAS model. We enable tractable and efficient Gibbs sampling by deriving an augmented form of the GP-ETAS inference problem. This novel sampling approach allows us to assess the posterior model variables conditioned on observed earthquake catalogues, i.e., the spatial background intensity and the parameters of the triggering function. Empirical results on two synthetic data sets indicate that GP-ETAS outperforms standard models and thus demonstrate the predictive power for observed earthquake catalogues including uncertainty quantification for the estimated parameters. Finally, a case study for the l'Aquila region, Italy, with the devastating event on 6 April 2009, is presented. KW - Self-exciting point process KW - Hawkes process KW - Spatio-temporal ETAS model KW - Bayesian inference KW - Sampling KW - Earthquake modeling KW - Gaussian process KW - Data augmentation Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-022-10085-3 SN - 0960-3174 SN - 1573-1375 VL - 32 IS - 2 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kühn, Daniela A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Richter, Gudrun A1 - Vera Rodriguez, Ismael T1 - A review of source models to further the understanding of the seismicity of the Groningen field JF - Netherlands journal of geosciences : NJG N2 - The occurrence of felt earthquakes due to gas production in Groningen has initiated numerous studies and model attempts to understand and quantify induced seismicity in this region. The whole bandwidth of available models spans the range from fully deterministic models to purely empirical and stochastic models. In this article, we summarise the most important model approaches, describing their main achievements and limitations. In addition, we discuss remaining open questions and potential future directions of development. KW - deterministic KW - empirical KW - hybrid KW - machine learning KW - seismicity model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2022.7 SN - 0016-7746 SN - 1573-9708 VL - 101 PB - Cambridge Univ. Press CY - Cambridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Eibl, Eva P. S. A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Vesely, Nele I. K. A1 - Walter, Thomas R. A1 - Jousset, Philippe A1 - Hersir, Gylfi Pall A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Eruption interval monitoring at strokkur Geyser, Iceland JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Geysers are hot springs whose frequency of water eruptions remain poorly understood. We set up a local broadband seismic network for 1 year at Strokkur geyser, Iceland, and developed an unprecedented catalog of 73,466 eruptions. We detected 50,135 single eruptions but find that the geyser is also characterized by sets of up to six eruptions in quick succession. The number of single to sextuple eruptions exponentially decreased, while the mean waiting time after an eruption linearly increased (3.7 to 16.4 min). While secondary eruptions within double to sextuple eruptions have a smaller mean seismic amplitude, the amplitude of the first eruption is comparable for all eruption types. We statistically model the eruption frequency assuming discharges proportional to the eruption multiplicity and a constant probability for subsequent events within a multituple eruption. The waiting time after an eruption is predictable but not the type or amplitude of the next one.
Plain Language Summary Geysers are springs that often erupt in hot water fountains. They erupt more often than volcanoes but are quite similar. Nevertheless, it is poorly understood how often volcanoes and also geysers erupt. We created a list of 73,466 eruption times of Strokkur geyser, Iceland, from 1 year of seismic data. The geyser erupted one to six times in quick succession. We found 50,135 single eruptions but only 1 sextuple eruption, while the mean waiting time increased from 3.7 min after single eruptions to 16.4 min after sextuple eruptions. Mean amplitudes of each eruption type were higher for single eruptions, but all first eruptions in a succession were similar in height. Assuming a constant heat inflow at depth, we can predict the waiting time after an eruption but not the type or amplitude of the next one. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085266 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 47 IS - 1 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sudibyo, Maria R. P. A1 - Eibl, Eva P. S. A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Hersir, Gylfi Páll T1 - Eruption Forecasting of Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, Using Permutation Entropy JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute-long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15 s before the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions. KW - permutation entropy KW - forecasting KW - geyser KW - eruption KW - hydrothermal system; KW - volcano-seismology Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024840 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 127 IS - 10 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Richter, Gudrun A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Stress-based, statistical modeling of the induced seismicity at the Groningen gas field BT - the Netherlands JF - Environmental earth sciences N2 - Groningen is the largest onshore gas field under production in Europe. The pressure depletion of the gas field started in 1963. In 1991, the first induced micro-earthquakes have been located at reservoir level with increasing rates in the following decades. Most of these events are of magnitude less than 2.0 and cannot be felt. However, maximum observed magnitudes continuously increased over the years until the largest, significant event with ML=3.6 was recorded in 2014, which finally led to the decision to reduce the production. This causal sequence displays the crucial role of understanding and modeling the relation between production and induced seismicity for economic planing and hazard assessment. Here we test whether the induced seismicity related to gas exploration can be modeled by the statistical response of fault networks with rate-and-state-dependent frictional behavior. We use the long and complete local seismic catalog and additionally detailed information on production-induced changes at the reservoir level to test different seismicity models. Both the changes of the fluid pressure and of the reservoir compaction are tested as input to approximate the Coulomb stress changes. We find that the rate-and-state model with a constant tectonic background seismicity rate can reproduce the observed long delay of the seismicity onset. In contrast, so-called Coulomb failure models with instantaneous earthquake nucleation need to assume that all faults are initially far from a critical state of stress to explain the delay. Our rate-and-state model based on the fluid pore pressure fits the spatiotemporal pattern of the seismicity best, where the fit further improves by taking the fault density and orientation into account. Despite its simplicity with only three free parameters, the rate-and-state model can reproduce the main statistical features of the observed activity. KW - induced seismicity KW - modeling KW - statistical seismology KW - forecast Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-08941-4 SN - 1866-6280 SN - 1866-6299 VL - 79 IS - 11 PB - Springer CY - New York ER -