TY  - JOUR
A1  - Strader, Anne
A1  - Schneider, Max
A1  - Schorlemmer, Danijel
T1  - Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California
JF  - Geophysical journal international
KW  - Probabilistic forecasting
KW  - Statistical methods
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - fore-casting
KW  - and prediction
KW  - Statistical seismology
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx268
SN  - 0956-540X
SN  - 1365-246X
VL  - 211
SP  - 239
EP  - 251
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Strader, Anne
A1  - Schneider, Max
A1  - Schorlemmer, Danijel
T1  - Erratum zu: Strader, Anne; Schneider, Max; Schorlemmer, Danijel: Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California (Geophysical Journal International, 211 (2017) 1, S. 239 – 251, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx268)
T2  - Geophysical journal international
N2  - S-test results for the USGS and RELM forecasts. The differences between the simulated log-likelihoods and the observed log-likelihood are labelled on the horizontal axes, with scaling adjustments for the 40year.retro experiment. The horizontal lines represent the confidence intervals, within the 0.05 significance level, for each forecast and experiment. If this range contains a log-likelihood difference of zero, the forecasted log-likelihoods are consistent with the observed, and the forecast passes the S-test (denoted by thin lines). If the minimum difference within this range does not contain zero, the forecast fails the S-test for that particular experiment, denoted by thick lines. Colours distinguish between experiments (see Table 2 for explanation of experiment durations). Due to anomalously large likelihood differences, S-test results for Wiemer-Schorlemmer.ALM during the 10year.retro and 40year.retro experiments are not displayed. The range of log-likelihoods for the Holliday-et-al.PI forecast is lower than for the other forecasts due to relatively homogeneous forecasted seismicity rates and use of a small fraction of the RELM testing region.
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx496
SN  - 0956-540X
SN  - 1365-246X
VL  - 212
IS  - 2
SP  - 1314
EP  - 1314
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  -