TY - JOUR A1 - Maghsoudi, Samira A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Kaiser, Diethelm A1 - Becker, Dirk A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Improving the estimation of detection probability and magnitude of completeness in strongly heterogeneous media, an application to acoustic emission (AE) JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Reliable estimations of magnitude of completeness (M-c) are essential for a correct interpretation of seismic catalogues. The spatial distribution of M-c may be strongly variable and difficult to assess in mining environments, owing to the presence of galleries, cavities, fractured regions, porous media and different mineralogical bodies, as well as in consequence of inhomogeneous spatial distribution of the seismicity. We apply a 3-D modification of the probabilistic magnitude of completeness (PMC) method, which relies on the analysis of network detection capabilities. In our approach, the probability to detect an event depends on its magnitude, source receiver Euclidian distance and source receiver direction. The suggested method is proposed for study of the spatial distribution of the magnitude of completeness in a mining environment and here is applied to a 2-months acoustic emission (AE) data set recorded at the Morsleben salt mine, Germany. The dense seismic network and the large data set, which includes more than one million events, enable a detailed testing of the method. This method is proposed specifically for strongly heterogeneous media. Besides, it can also be used for specific network installations, with sensors with a sensitivity, dependent on the direction of the incoming wave (e.g. some piezoelectric sensors). In absence of strong heterogeneities, the standards PMC approach should be used. We show that the PMC estimations in mines strongly depend on the source receiver direction, and cannot be correctly accounted using a standard PMC approach. However, results can be improved, when adopting the proposed 3-D modification of the PMC method. Our analysis of one central horizontal and vertical section yields a magnitude of completeness of about M-c approximate to 1 (AE magnitude) at the centre of the network, which increases up to M-c approximate to 4 at further distances outside the network; the best detection performance is estimated for a NNE-SSE elongated region, which corresponds to the strike direction of the low-attenuating salt body. Our approach provides us with small-scale details about the capability of sensors to detect an earthquake, which can be linked to the presence of heterogeneities in specific directions. Reduced detection performance in presence of strong structural heterogeneities (cavities) is confirmed by synthetic waveform modelling in heterogeneous media. KW - Seismic attenuation KW - Statistical seismology Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt049 SN - 0956-540X VL - 193 IS - 3 SP - 1556 EP - 1569 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Brietzke, Gilbert B. A1 - Hinzen, Klaus-G. T1 - Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results. KW - Earthquake interaction KW - forecasting KW - and prediction KW - Seismicity and tectonics KW - Statistical seismology Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt271 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 195 IS - 1 SP - 684 EP - 694 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER -