TY - JOUR
A1 - Palmer, Matthew D.
A1 - Gregory, Jonathan
A1 - Bagge, Meike
A1 - Calvert, Daley
A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius
A1 - Howard, Tom
A1 - Klemann, Volker
A1 - Lowe, Jason A.
A1 - Roberts, Chris
A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A.
A1 - Spada, Giorgio
T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond
JF - Earth's future
N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.
KW - climate change
KW - CMIP5 models
KW - RCP scenarios
KW - sea-level projections
KW - tide gauge observations
Y1 - 2020
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413
SN - 2328-4277
VL - 8
IS - 9
SP - 1
EP - 25
PB - Wiley-Blackwell
CY - Hoboken
ER -
TY - GEN
A1 - Palmer, Matthew D.
A1 - Gregory, Jonathan
A1 - Bagge, Meike
A1 - Calvert, Daley
A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius
A1 - Howard, Tom
A1 - Klemann, Volker
A1 - Lowe, Jason A.
A1 - Roberts, Chris
A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A.
A1 - Spada, Giorgio
T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond
T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.
T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1353
KW - climate change
KW - CMIP5 models
KW - RCP scenarios
KW - sea-level projections
KW - tide gauge observations
Y1 - 2020
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549881
SN - 1866-8372
IS - 9
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Leins, Johannes A.
A1 - Grimm, Volker
A1 - Drechsler, Martin
T1 - Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands
BT - the role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change
JF - Ecology and evolution
N2 - In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.
KW - bilinear interpolation
KW - climate change
KW - dispersal success
KW - land use
KW - large marsh grasshopper
KW - spatially explicit model
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9063
SN - 2045-7758
VL - 12
IS - 7
PB - Wiley
CY - Hoboken
ER -
TY - GEN
A1 - Huber, Veronika
A1 - Krummenauer, Linda
A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina
A1 - Lange, Stefan
A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio
A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo
A1 - Frieler, Katja
T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.
Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.
Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise.
Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1430
KW - temperature-related mortality
KW - climate change
KW - Future projections
KW - Germany
KW - global mean temperature
Y1 - 2020
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516511
SN - 1866-8372
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Huber, Veronika
A1 - Krummenauer, Linda
A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina
A1 - Lange, Stefan
A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio
A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo
A1 - Frieler, Katja
T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
JF - Environmental Research
N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.
Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.
Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise.
Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
KW - temperature-related mortality
KW - climate change
KW - Future projections
KW - Germany
KW - global mean temperature
Y1 - 2020
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447
SN - 0013-9351
SN - 1096-0953
VL - 186
SP - 1
EP - 10
PB - Elsevier
CY - San Diego, California
ER -
TY - GEN
A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie
A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna
A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia
A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1 - Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera
BT - a study on recent and ancient sedimentary DNA
T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2 - Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming.
T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1442
KW - ancient sedimentary DNA
KW - Arctic lakes
KW - assembly rules
KW - climate change
KW - diatoms
KW - environmental filtering
KW - phylogenetic diversity
KW - Siberian tree line
Y1 - 2020
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515485
SN - 1866-8372
IS - 5
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie
A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna
A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia
A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1 - Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera
BT - a study on recent and ancient sedimentary DNA
JF - Journal of Biogeography
N2 - Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming.
KW - ancient sedimentary DNA
KW - Arctic lakes
KW - assembly rules
KW - climate change
KW - diatoms
KW - environmental filtering
KW - phylogenetic diversity
KW - Siberian tree line
Y1 - 2020
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13786
SN - 0305-0270
SN - 1365-2699
VL - 47
IS - 5
SP - 1166
EP - 1179
PB - Wiley-Blackwell
CY - Oxford
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Hickmann, Thomas
A1 - Widerberg, Oscar
A1 - Lederer, Markus
A1 - Pattberg, Philipp H.
T1 - The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat as an orchestrator in global climate policymaking
JF - International review of administrative sciences : an international journal of comparative public administration
N2 - Scholars have recently devoted increasing attention to the role and function of international bureaucracies in global policymaking. Some of them contend that international public officials have gained significant political influence in various policy fields. Compared to other international bureaucracies, the political leeway of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has been considered rather limited. Due to the specific problem structure of the policy domain of climate change, national governments endowed this intergovernmental treaty secretariat with a relatively narrow mandate. However, this article argues that in the past few years, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat has gradually loosened its straitjacket and expanded its original spectrum of activity by engaging different sub-national and non-state actors into a policy dialogue using facilitative orchestration as a mode of governance. The present article explores the recent evolution of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat and investigates the way in which it initiates, guides, broadens and strengthens sub-national and non-state climate actions to achieve progress in the international climate negotiations.
Points for practitioners
The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has lately adopted new roles and functions in global climate policymaking. While previously seen as a rather technocratic body that, first and foremost, serves national governments, the Climate Secretariat increasingly interacts with sub-national governments, civil society organizations and private companies to push the global response to climate change forward. We contend that the Climate Secretariat can contribute to global climate policymaking by coordinating and steering the initiatives of non-nation-state actors towards coherence and good practice.
KW - climate change
KW - environmental policymaking
KW - intergovernmental relations
KW - international bureaucracies
KW - sub-national and non-state actors
Y1 - 2021
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0020852319840425
SN - 0020-8523
SN - 1461-7226
VL - 87
IS - 1
SP - 21
EP - 38
PB - Sage
CY - Los Angeles, Calif. [u.a.]
ER -
TY - THES
A1 - Windirsch-Woiwode, Torben
T1 - Permafrost carbon stabilisation by recreating a herbivore-driven ecosystem
T1 - Stabilisierung von Permafrostkohlenstoff durch die Wiedereinführung eines Herbivor-geprägten Ökosystems
N2 - With Arctic ground as a huge and temperature-sensitive carbon reservoir, maintaining low ground temperatures and frozen conditions to prevent further carbon emissions that contrib-ute to global climate warming is a key element in humankind’s fight to maintain habitable con-ditions on earth. Former studies showed that during the late Pleistocene, Arctic ground condi-tions were generally colder and more stable as the result of an ecosystem dominated by large herbivorous mammals and vast extents of graminoid vegetation – the mammoth steppe. Characterised by high plant productivity (grassland) and low ground insulation due to animal-caused compression and removal of snow, this ecosystem enabled deep permafrost aggrad-ation. Now, with tundra and shrub vegetation common in the terrestrial Arctic, these effects are not in place anymore. However, it appears to be possible to recreate this ecosystem local-ly by artificially increasing animal numbers, and hence keep Arctic ground cold to reduce or-ganic matter decomposition and carbon release into the atmosphere.
By measuring thaw depth, total organic carbon and total nitrogen content, stable carbon iso-tope ratio, radiocarbon age, n-alkane and alcohol characteristics and assessing dominant vegetation types along grazing intensity transects in two contrasting Arctic areas, it was found that recreating conditions locally, similar to the mammoth steppe, seems to be possible. For permafrost-affected soil, it was shown that intensive grazing in direct comparison to non-grazed areas reduces active layer depth and leads to higher TOC contents in the active layer soil. For soil only frozen on top in winter, an increase of TOC with grazing intensity could not be found, most likely because of confounding factors such as vertical water and carbon movement, which is not possible with an impermeable layer in permafrost. In both areas, high animal activity led to a vegetation transformation towards species-poor graminoid-dominated landscapes with less shrubs. Lipid biomarker analysis revealed that, even though the available organic material is different between the study areas, in both permafrost-affected and sea-sonally frozen soils the organic material in sites affected by high animal activity was less de-composed than under less intensive grazing pressure. In conclusion, high animal activity af-fects decomposition processes in Arctic soils and the ground thermal regime, visible from reduced active layer depth in permafrost areas. Therefore, grazing management might be utilised to locally stabilise permafrost and reduce Arctic carbon emissions in the future, but is likely not scalable to the entire permafrost region.
N2 - Mit dem arktischen Boden als riesigem und temperatursensiblen Kohlenstoffspeicher ist die Aufrechterhaltung niedriger Bodentemperaturen und gefrorener Bedingungen zur Verhinde-rung weiterer Kohlenstoffemissionen, die zum globalen Klimawandel beitragen, ein Schlüs-selelement im Kampf der Menschheit, die Erde weiterhin bewohnbar zu halten. Vorangehen-de Studien ergaben, dass die Bodenbedingungen in der Arktis während des späten Pleisto-zäns im Allgemeinen kälter und dadurch stabiler waren, als Ergebnis eines Ökosystems, das von großen pflanzenfressenden Säugetieren und weiten Flächen grasartiger Vegetation do-miniert wurde - der Mammutsteppe. Gekennzeichnet durch hohe Pflanzenproduktivität (Gras-land) und geringe Bodenisolierung aufgrund von Kompression und Schneeräumung durch Tiere, ermöglichte dieses Ökosystem eine tiefreichende Entwicklung des Permafrosts. Heut-zutage, mit der vorherrschenden Tundra- und Strauchvegetation in der Arktis, sind diese Ef-fekte nicht mehr präsent. Es scheint aber möglich, dieses Ökosystem lokal durch künstliche Erhöhung der Tierbestände nachzubilden und somit den arktischen Boden kühl zu halten, um den Abbau von organischem Material und die Freisetzung von Kohlenstoff in die Atmosphäre zu verringern.
Durch Messungen der Auftautiefe, des Gesamtgehalts des organischen Kohlenstoffs und Stickstoffs, des stabilen Kohlenstoff-Isotopenverhältnisses, des Radiocarbonalters, der
n-Alkan- und Alkoholcharakteristika sowie durch Bestimmung der vorherrschenden Vegetati-onstypen entlang von Beweidungsgradienten in zwei unterschiedlichen arktischen Gebieten habe ich festgestellt, dass die Schaffung ähnlicher Bedingungen wie in der Mammutsteppe möglich sein könnte. Für durch Permafrost beeinflusste Böden konnte ich zeigen, dass eine intensive Beweidung im direkten Vergleich mit unbeweideten Gebieten die Tiefe der Auftau-schicht verringert und zu höheren Gehalten an organischem Kohlenstoff im oberen Bodenbe-reich führt. Für im Winter nur oberflächlich gefrorene Böden konnte kein Anstieg des organi-schen Kohlenstoffgehalts mit zunehmender Beweidungsintensität festgestellt werden, höchstwahrscheinlich aufgrund von Störfaktoren wie vertikalen Wasser- und Kohlenstoffbe-wegungen, die nicht durch eine undurchlässige Schicht wie beim Permafrost begrenzt sind. In beiden Gebieten führte eine hohe Tieraktivität zu einer Umwandlung der Vegetation hin zu artenarmen, von Gräsern dominierten Landschaften mit weniger Sträuchern. Die Analyse von Lipid-Biomarkern ergab, dass das verfügbare organische Material zwar zwischen den Unter-suchungsgebieten unterschiedlich war, aber sowohl in Permafrostgebieten als auch in saiso-nal gefrorenen Böden in Bereichen mit hoher Tieraktivität weniger stark zersetzt war als unter geringerer Beweidungsintensität. Zusammenfassend beeinflusst eine hohe Tieraktivität die Zersetzungsvorgänge in arktischen Böden und das thermische Regime des Bodens, was sich in einer reduzierten Tiefe der Auftauschicht in Permafrostgebieten widerspiegelt. Daher könn-te das Beweidungsmanagement in Zukunft aktiv eingesetzt werden, um den Permafrost lokal zu stabilisieren und gefroren zu halten sowie die Kohlenstoffemissionen in der Arktis zu ver-ringern. Aufgrund der Größe der Fläche, die in der terrestrischen Arktis von Permafrost be-einflusst ist, wird ein solches Beweidungsmanagement aber nicht als Maßnahme auf die ge-samte Permafrostregion ausgedehnt werden können.
KW - permafrost
KW - carbon
KW - climate change
KW - grazing
KW - Arctic
KW - Arktis
KW - Kohlenstoff
KW - Klimawandel
KW - Beweidung
KW - Permafrost
Y1 - 2024
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-624240
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro
A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1 - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1 - Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil
JF - Urban water journal
N2 - Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts.
KW - Business interruption cost
KW - water utility company
KW - hydrological
KW - droughts
KW - water security
KW - urban water
KW - climate change
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564
SN - 1573-062X
SN - 1744-9006
PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
CY - Abingdon
ER -