TY - JOUR A1 - Namiki, Atsuko A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Woith, Heiko A1 - Willey, Timothy A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Walter, Thomas R. T1 - Volcanic activities triggered or inhibited by resonance of volcanic edifices to large earthquakes JF - Geology N2 - The existence of a causal link between large earthquakes and volcanic unrest is widely accepted. Recent observations have also revealed counterintuitive negative responses of volcanoes to large earthquakes, including decreased gas emissions and subsidence in volcanic areas. In order to explore the mechanisms that could simultaneously explain both the positive and negative responses of volcanic activity to earthquakes, we here focus on the role played by topography. In the laboratory, we shook a volcanic edifice analogue, made of gel, previously injected with a buoyant fluid. We find that shaking triggers rapid migration of the buoyant fluid upward, downward, or laterally, depending on the fluid’s buoyancy and storage depth; bubbly fluids stored at shallow depth ascend, while low-buoyancy fluids descend or migrate laterally. The migration of fluids induced by shaking is two orders of magnitude faster than without shaking. Downward or lateral fluid migration may decrease volcanic gas emissions and cause subsidence as a negative response, while upward migration is consistent both with an increase in volcanic activity and immediate unrest (deformation and seismicity) after large earthquakes. The fluid migration is more efficient when the oscillation frequency is close to the resonance frequency of the edifice. The resonance frequency for a 30-km-wide volcanic mountain range, such as those where subsidence was observed, is ∼0.07 Hz. Only large earthquakes are able to cause oscillation at such low frequencies. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1130/G45323.1 SN - 0091-7613 SN - 1943-2682 VL - 47 IS - 1 SP - 67 EP - 70 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Boulder ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Ullah, Shahid A1 - Bindi, Dino A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Mikhailova, Natalya T1 - The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Central Asia BT - statistical inference from an earthquake catalogue with uncertain magnitudes JF - Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions N2 - The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue. Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-86239-745-3 SN - 978-1-86239-964-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1144/SP432.3 SN - 0305-8719 VL - 432 SP - 29 EP - 40 PB - The Geological Society CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Ansal, Atilla A1 - Kurtulus, Asil A1 - Strollo, Angelo A1 - Wang, Rongjiang A1 - Zschau, Jochen T1 - The Atakoey vertical array (Turkey) : insights into seismic wave propagation in the shallow-most crustal layers by waveform deconvolution N2 - P>A vertical array of accelerometers was installed in Atakoy (western Istanbul) with the long-term aim of improving our understanding of in situ soil behaviour, to assess the modelling and parametric uncertainties associated with the employed methodologies for strong-motion site-response analysis, and for shallow geological investigations. Geotechnical and geophysical investigations were carried out to define the subsoil structure at the selected site. Data associated with 10 earthquakes (2.7 < M < 4.3) collected during the first months of operation of the array were used to image the upgoing and downgoing waves by deconvolution of waveforms recorded at different depths. Results have shown that the velocity of propagation of the imaged upgoing and downgoing waves in the borehole is consistent with that of S or P waves, depending on the component of ground acceleration analysed but independent of the chosen signal window. In particular, an excellent agreement was found between the observed upgoing and downgoing wave traveltimes and the ones calculated using a model derived by seismic noise analysis of array data. The presence of a smaller pulse on the waveforms obtained by deconvolution of the horizontal components suggests both internal S-wave reflection and S-to-P mode conversion, as well as a not normal incidence of the wavefield. The presence of a pulse propagating with S-wave velocity in the uppermost 25 m in the waveforms obtained by the deconvolution of the vertical components suggests P-to-S mode conversion. These evidences imply that, even when site amplification is mainly related to 1-D effects, the standard practice in engineering seismology of deconvolving the surface recording down to the bedrock using an approximate S-wave transfer function (generally valid for vertical incidence of SH waves) might lead to errors in the estimation of the input ground motion required in engineering calculations. Finally, downgoing waves with significant amplitudes were found down to 70 m and even to 140 m depth. This result provides a warning about the use of shallow borehole recordings as input for the numerical simulation of ground motion and for the derivation of ground motion prediction relationships. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1365-246X U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04257.x SN - 0956-540X ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Picozzi, Matteo A1 - Strollo, Angelo A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Durukal, Eser A1 - oezel, Oguz A1 - Karabulut, Savas A1 - Zschau, Jochen A1 - Erdik, Mustafa T1 - Site characterization by seismic noise in Istanbul, Turkey N2 - Single station seismic noise measurements were carried out at 192 sites in the western part of Istanbul, Turkey. This extensive survey allowed the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover to be mapped, and identify areas prone to site amplification. The results are in good agreement with the geological distribution of sedimentary units, indicating a progressive decrease of the fundamental resonance frequencies from the northeastern part, where the bedrock outcrops, towards the southwestern side, where a thickness of some hundreds meters for the sedimentary cover is estimated. The particular distribution of fundamental resonance frequencies indicates that local amplification of the ground motion might play a significative role in explaining the anomalous damage distribution after the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake. Furthermore, 2D array measurements of seismic noise were performed in the metropolitan area with the aim of obtaining a preliminary geophysical characterization of the different sedimentary covers. These measurements allow the estimation of the shear-wave velocity profile for some representative areas and the identification of the presence of strong impedance contrast responsible of seismic ground motion amplification. Comparison of a theoretical site response from an estimated S-wave velocity profile with an empirical one based on earthquake recordings strongly encourages the use of the low cost seismic noise techniques for the study of seismic site effects. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02677261 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2008.05.007 SN - 0267-7261 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Di Giacomo, Domenico A1 - Bindi, Dino A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Oth, Adrien T1 - Residual analysis of teleseismic P-wave energy magnitude estimates: inter- and intrastation variability JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - P>Computing the magnitude of an earthquake requires correcting for the propagation effects from the source to the receivers. This is often accomplished by performing numerical simulations using a suitable Earth model. In this work, the energy magnitude M(e) is considered and its determination is performed using theoretical spectral amplitude decay functions over teleseismic distances based on the global Earth model AK135Q. Since the high frequency part (above the corner frequency) of the source spectrum has to be considered in computing M(e), the influence of propagation and site effects may not be negligible and they could bias the single station M(e) estimations. Therefore, in this study we assess the inter- and intrastation distributions of errors by considering the M(e) residuals computed for a large data set of earthquakes recorded at teleseismic distances by seismic stations deployed worldwide. To separate the inter- and intrastation contribution of errors, we apply a maximum likelihood approach to the M(e) residuals. We show that the interstation errors (describing a sort of site effect for a station) are within +/- 0.2 magnitude units for most stations and their spatial distribution reflects the expected lateral variation affecting the velocity and attenuation of the Earth's structure in the uppermost layers, not accounted for by the 1-D AK135Q model. The variance of the intrastation error distribution (describing the record-to-record component of variability) is larger than the interstation one (0.240 against 0.159), and the spatial distribution of the errors is not random but shows specific patterns depending on the source-to-station paths. The set of coefficients empirically determined may be used in the future to account for the heterogeneities of the real Earth not considered in the theoretical calculations of the spectral amplitude decay functions used to correct the recorded data for propagation effects. KW - Time series analysis KW - Earthquake source observations KW - Body waves KW - Site effects KW - Wave propagation Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05019.x SN - 0956-540X VL - 185 IS - 3 SP - 1444 EP - 1454 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pilz, Marco A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Stupazzini, Marco A1 - Paolucci, Roberto A1 - Zschau, Jochen T1 - Modelling basin effects on earthquake ground motion in the Santiago de Chile basin by a spectral element code JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Simulations of strong ground motion within the Santiago de Chile Metropolitan area were carried out by means of 3-D deterministic wave propagation tool based on the spectral element method. The simulated events take into account the pronounced interface between the low-velocity sedimentary basin and the bedrock as well as topography of the area. To verify our model we simulated a regional earthquake recorded by a dense network installed in the city of Santiago for recording aftershock activity after the 2010 February 27 Maule main shock. The results proof the alluvial basin amplification effects and show a strong dependence of spectral amplification in the basin on the local site conditions. Moreover, we studied the seismic response due to a hypothetical M(w) = 6.0 event occurring along the active San Ramon Fault, which is crossing the eastern edge of the city. The scenario earthquakes exhibit that an unfavourable interaction between fault rupture, radiation mechanism and complex geological and topographic conditions in the near-field region may give rise to large values of peak ground velocity in the basin. Finally, 3-D numerical predictions of ground motion are compared with the one computed according to ground motion prediction equations selected among the next generation attenuation relationships, in terms of ground motion peak values and spectral acceleration. The comparison underlines that the 3-D scenario simulations predict a significantly higher level of ground motion in the Santiago basin, especially over deep alluvial deposits. Moreover, also the location of the rupture nucleation largely influences the observed shaking pattern. KW - Earthquake ground motions KW - Site effects KW - Wave propagation KW - South America Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05183.x SN - 0956-540X VL - 187 IS - 2 SP - 929 EP - 945 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Strollo, Angelo A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Bindi, Dino A1 - Chiauzzi, Leonardo A1 - Pagliuca, Rossella A1 - Mucciarelli, Marco A1 - Zschau, Jochen T1 - Microzonation of Potenza (Southern Italy) in terms of spectral intensity ratio using joint analysis of earthquakes and ambient noise JF - Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering N2 - A temporary seismic network composed of 11 stations was installed in the city of Potenza (Southern Italy) to record local and regional seismicity within the context of a national project funded by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). Some stations were moved after a certain time in order to increase the number of measurement points, leading to a total of 14 sites within the city by the end of the experiment. Recordings from 26 local earthquakes (M-l 2.2-3.8 ) were analyzed to compute the site responses at the 14 sites by applying both reference and non-reference site techniques. Furthermore, the Spectral Intensity (SI) for each local earthquake, as well as their ratios with respect to the values obtained at a reference site, were also calculated. In addition, a field survey of 233 single station noise measurements within the city was carried out to increase the information available at localities different from the 14 monitoring sites. By using the results of the correlation analysis between the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios computed from noise recordings (NHV) at the 14 selected sites and those derived by the single station noise measurements within the town as a proxy, the spectral intensity correction factors for site amplification obtained from earthquake analysis were extended to the entire city area. This procedure allowed us to provide a microzonation map of the urban area that can be directly used when calculating risk scenarios for civil defence purposes. The amplification factors estimated following this approach show values increasing along the main valley toward east where the detrital and alluvial complexes reach their maximum thickness. KW - Site effects KW - Seismic noise KW - Earthquakes KW - Spectral intensity KW - Correlation Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9256-4 SN - 1570-761X VL - 10 IS - 2 SP - 493 EP - 516 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Bresch, David N. A1 - Domeisen, Daniela I. A1 - Feser, Frauke A1 - Koszalka, Inga A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Pantillon, Florian A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Pinto, Joaquim G. A1 - Punge, Heinz Jürgen A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Strehlow, Karen A1 - Weisse, Ralf A1 - Wurpts, Andreas T1 - Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards JF - Reviews of geophysics N2 - Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. KW - impact forecasting KW - natural hazards KW - early warning Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704 SN - 8755-1209 SN - 1944-9208 VL - 58 IS - 4 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pilz, Marco A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Picozzi, Matteo A1 - Zschau, Jochen T1 - Evaluation of proxies for seismic site conditions in large urban areas the example of Santiago de Chile JF - Physics and chemistry of the earth N2 - Characterizing the local site response in large cities is an important step towards seismic hazard assessment. To this regard, single station seismic noise measurements were carried out at 146 sites in the northern part of Santiago de Chile. This extensive survey allowed the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover, derived from horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios, to be mapped. By inverting the spectral ratios under the constraint of the thickness of the sedimentary cover, known from previous gravimetric measurements, local S-wave velocity profiles have been retrieved. After interpolation between the individual profiles, the resulting high resolution 3D S-wave velocity model allows the entire area, as well as deeper parts of the basin, to be represented in great detail. Since one lithology shows a great scatter in the velocity values only a very general correlation between S-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (v(s)(30)) and local geology is found. Local S-wave velocity profiles can serve as a key factor in seismic hazard assessment, since they allow an estimate of the amplification potential of the sedimentary cover. Mapping the intensity distribution of the 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile, event (Mw = 8.8) the results indicate that local amplification of the ground motion might partially explain the damage distribution and encourage the use of the low cost seismic noise techniques for the study of seismic site effects. KW - Ambient seismic noise KW - H/V ratio KW - Inversion KW - S-wave velocity KW - Site effects Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.01.007 SN - 1474-7065 VL - 36 IS - 16 SP - 1259 EP - 1266 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bindi, Dino A1 - Marzorati, Simone A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Strollo, Angelo A1 - Jaeckel, Karl-Heinz T1 - Empirical spectral ratios estimated in two deep sedimentary basins using microseisms recorded by short-period seismometers N2 - In this work, we analyse continuous measurements of microseisms to assess the reliability of the fundamental resonance frequency estimated by means of the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio within the 0.1-1 Hz frequency range, using short-period sensors (natural period of 1 s). We apply the H/V technique to recordings of stations installed in two alluvial basins with different sedimentary cover thicknesses-the Lower Rhine Embayment (Germany) and the Gubbio Plain (Central Italy). The spectral ratios are estimated over the time-frequency domain, and we discuss the reliability of the results considering both the variability of the microseism activity and the amplitude of the instrumental noise. We show that microseisms measured by short period sensors allow the retrieval of fundamental resonance frequencies greater than about 0.1-0.2 Hz, with this lower frequency bound depending on the relative amplitude of the microseism signal and the self-noise of the instruments. In particular, we show an example where the considered short-period sensor is connected to instruments characterized by an instrumental noise level which allows detecting only fundamental frequencies greater than about 0.4 Hz. Since the frequency at which the peak of the H/V spectral ratio is biased depends upon the seismic signal-to-instrument noise ratio, the power spectral amplitude of instrumental self- noise should be always considered when interpreting the frequency of the peak as the fundamental resonance frequency of the investigated site. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1365-246X U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03958.x SN - 0956-540X ER -